Trump and Bolton’s Plan to Isolate Allies and Encourage Enemies

https://www.nytimes.com/2018/03/25/opinion/trump-bolton-allies-enemies.html

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John R. Bolton, President Trump’s new national security adviser, has never met a war he didn’t want.

Mr. Bolton defends the 2003 invasion of Iraq and he advocates attacking North Korea, too. He believes that the United States should have bombed Iran years ago, rather than negotiating an international agreement to prevent it from obtaining a nuclear weapon.

Since going into force in 2016, that deal has blocked Tehran’s path to a nuclear weapon and prevented a nuclear arms race in the Middle East. By every account, Iran is complying with the agreement, has committed to never obtaining a nuclear weapon and has subjected itself to rigorous monitoring and verification.

And yet, Mr. Trump appears committed to killing it. Mr. Bolton’s appointment has only cemented the expectation that the nuclear deal’s life expectancy is short. May 12 is the next deadline by which the president has to extend sanction waivers and certify Iran’s compliance to preserve the accord. If he doesn’t, the fallout will be profound.

First and foremost, Iran most likely will move quickly, without any restraint, to enrich uranium, the fissile material needed for nuclear weapons. The Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corps, the leading edge of Iran’s nefarious actions, will declare that the West can never be trusted and will use the decision to undermine the less hard-line president, Hassan Rouhani.

The destruction of the nuclear deal will also increase the Revolutionary Guards’ malign activities in the Middle East, making the challenge to Israel’s security and to America’s other allies even more difficult. These activities, in turn, will increase American calls for military action against Iran as the only viable option, since no Iranian will be able to enter new negotiations with the United States any time soon.

The march to military conflict will be hard to stop, especially with Mr. Bolton leading the National Security Council.

Beyond this horror show, the decision to destroy the Iran deal will also pound yet another nail into the coffin of the trans-Atlantic relationship. Mr. Trump has so far laid the task of “fixing” the deal at the feet of Britain, France and Germany, America’s European partners in the nuclear negotiations. He has demanded that they agree to new language on Iran’s ballistic missile development and inspections of Iranian military installations, and he has asked for a change in the timeline of the nuclear deal so that the restrictions on Iran will not expire. In essence, he has asked Europe for help changing the terms of the deal itself.

The Europeans’ greatest objection is on the issue of the “sunset.” They believe, accurately, that Iran has committed to never obtaining a nuclear weapon, is complying with the terms of the deal, and there are mechanisms in the deal to both review and sanction if it becomes necessary. European diplomats rightly feel that Mr. Trump is demanding that they solve a political problem he created by campaigning against the deal.

Mr. Trump’s nixing of the deal won’t do America much good with the rest of the world, either. Important allies and partners, like South Korea, Japan and India, greatly reduced their reliance on Iranian oil in service to the negotiations that produced the nuclear agreement. Sabotaging the deal will sour these relationships. Moreover, these countries will balk at economic sanctions on Iran that are reimposed in the absence of diplomacy. Mr. Trump may get some level of compliance thanks to the reach of American banking sanctions, but he will also spawn distrust and resentment, and push other countries closer to China as a more reliable financial partner.

Killing the Iran deal will also be an early blow to the forthcoming nuclear negotiations with North Korea. Mr. Trump most likely believes that nixing the Iran accord will somehow show North Korea’s leader, Kim Jong-un, that he does not make “bad” deals. In reality, Mr. Kim will wonder if he can believe in any agreement offered by an American president.

Finally, if the White House rips up the Iran deal, it will give the United States exactly what it needs least: international isolation. The deal was negotiated by the United States, Britain, France, Germany, Russia and China, coordinated by the European Union, and endorsed by a 15-to-0 vote in the United Nations Security Council. Mr. Trump will not isolate Iran by nixing the deal; he will isolate America and lead its partners and allies to consider China and Russia as more dependable, predictable partners, even absent Western values.

Nothing about this decision will increase American security. It will be a leap into the unknown, with devastating consequences. Once lost, the hard-won trust and faith in America will not be easily regained. Mr. Bolton and Mr. Trump should not make this huge mistake.