The Rise of Euro-Putinism

https://www.nytimes.com/2018/03/16/opinion/vladimir-putin-russia-elections.html

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There aren’t many certainties in politics, but here’s one: Vladimir Putin will be re-elected to a fourth presidential term in Sunday’s sham ballot. The larger question is what other elections can Putin win in the coming years.

He’s on a roll. The big winners in Italy’s election this month — the anti-immigrant Northern League and the populist Five Star Movement — are highly sympathetic to Putin. Austria’s young new chancellor, Sebastian Kurz, governs in coalition with the far-right Freedom Party, which in 2016 signed a contract with Putin’s puppet political party, United Russia, to “exchange experiences” and “send delegations to each other.” German elections in September saw gains for the far-left Left Party and the far-right Alternative for Germany. Both are popular with pro-Putin voters.

The list continues: The Russia-friendly left-wing government of Alexis Tsipras in Greece, in power since 2015. The Russia-friendly right-wing government of Viktor Orban in Hungary, in power since 2010. Marine Le Pen’s second-place finish in the 2017 French election. Donald Trump’s second-place finish in the 2016 U.S. election.

Then there’s Britain. Putin won a victory in 2015 when Jeremy Corbyn — a man who in 2011 called NATO “a danger to world peace” — became leader of the Labour Party. Putin won a victory the following year with Brexit, which isolated the U.K. while accelerating the trend toward European disintegration.

It’s in this light that the attempted murder of the former Russian intelligence agent Sergei Skripal and his daughter Yulia should be understood.

There are inconspicuous ways to eliminate an enemy. Using an exotic chemical agent produced by a single lab in the Soviet Union isn’t one of them. There are inconspicuous moments at which to do it. The eve of Putin’s re-coronation isn’t one of them. It recalls the murder of the journalist and Kremlin scourge Anna Politkovskaya on Oct. 7, 2006 — Putin’s 54th birthday.

In other words, the attack wasn’t simply an act of revenge. It was a statement of dominance. The ostentatious disdain with which the Kremlin has treated the British government since Theresa May leveled the charges against Russia in Parliament this week underscores the message: We can do this. You can’t touch us. We are winning. You are weak.

They’re probably right. May’s initial decision to expel 23 Russian diplomats was feeble and predictable. Her government is reportedly considering tougher measures, including seizing U.K.-based assets of Kremlin-connected oligarchs. Don’t bet on it. “We’re going to get very, very cross,” was what one rueful Tory member of Parliament told me of what he expects of his government.

Translation: Russia will not have the pleasure of a royal visit when it hosts the World Cup this summer. A joint statement has been issued by Britain, France, Germany and the U.S. calling on Russia to “live up to its responsibilities” to “uphold international peace and security.” Otherwise, no serious consequences. No serious additional sanctions on Russia. No major increases in European defense spending. No effort to wean Europe from its dependence on Russian energy. No boycott of the precious World Cup.

It doesn’t help Britain or the rest of Europe to have, in Donald Trump, an American president who until recently was publicly infatuated with Putin, and has so far allowed only toothless sanctions on Russia for its electoral meddling.

Nor does it help that, in the contest for European hearts and minds, Trump’s America doesn’t rate favorably against Putin’s Russia, as my colleague Frank Bruni noted in an astute column on Sunday. When America puts an oaf in the Oval Office, the sly villain in the Kremlin will look appealing by comparison.

But Europe’s larger problem in the face of Putin’s serial aggressions isn’t a dismaying and potentially compromised U.S. president. It isn’t the methods the Kremlin has used to subvert Western democracies: the troll farms, propaganda channels, email hacks, rent-a-protests or loans to extremist parties. And it isn’t a matter of ideology, either. The Kremlin is as happy to ally itself with fascists as it is with Communists, techno-anarchists or radical environmentalists.

The deeper reason Putin seduces is that he believes in the principle of power. He acts. The uses of his power are mainly wicked. But wickedness, at least, is a quality, particularly when it is wedded to political efficacy, personal forcefulness and the appearance of great cunning.

Compare that to the last decade or so of European leaders: David Cameron, Matteo Renzi, Nicolas Sarkozy, Jean-Claude Juncker, even Angela Merkel. What did any of them stand for? What in their personalities was anything other than feckless and pallid? Who among them would pull a trigger for their country’s preservation — or even for their own? How many of them will be remembered in 20 years’ time?

Vladimir Putin is a criminal president who poses a clear and present danger to democratic society. But nobody can accuse him of being feckless or pallid or unwilling to pull a trigger. He’s exciting in the way of a tiger pouncing on prey. So long as he’s allowed to pounce he’ll continue to win new admirers and future elections, not just his own.