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What Happened to Trump’s Red Line on Chemical Weapons? What Happened to Trump’s Red Line on Chemical Weapons?
(about 9 hours later)
Early in his presidency, Donald Trump knew exactly whom to blame for the chemical weapons used in Syria, and what to do about it. The “heinous” sarin gas attacks by President Bashar al-Assad on the Syrian town of Khan Sheikhoun last April happened because President Barack Obama “did nothing” to enforce his red line against the banned arms after an attack near Damascus in August 2013, Mr. Trump said.Early in his presidency, Donald Trump knew exactly whom to blame for the chemical weapons used in Syria, and what to do about it. The “heinous” sarin gas attacks by President Bashar al-Assad on the Syrian town of Khan Sheikhoun last April happened because President Barack Obama “did nothing” to enforce his red line against the banned arms after an attack near Damascus in August 2013, Mr. Trump said.
So Mr. Trump ordered the launch of 59 cruise missiles against a Syrian airfield where the April chemical attack originated. Invoking the horror of “innocent babies” choked by poison gas, he said military action would “deter the spread and use of deadly chemical weapons.”So Mr. Trump ordered the launch of 59 cruise missiles against a Syrian airfield where the April chemical attack originated. Invoking the horror of “innocent babies” choked by poison gas, he said military action would “deter the spread and use of deadly chemical weapons.”
Only it didn’t.Only it didn’t.
In the 11 months since then, there have been many such attacks, including at least six this year, which American officials and human rights groups blamed on Mr. Assad. Rather than the more lethal sarin agent used in April, recent attacks reportedly have involved chlorine.In the 11 months since then, there have been many such attacks, including at least six this year, which American officials and human rights groups blamed on Mr. Assad. Rather than the more lethal sarin agent used in April, recent attacks reportedly have involved chlorine.
The use of poison gas, a war crime under international law, has been integral to Mr. Assad’s scorched-earth drive to regain control of the last rebel-held areas near Damascus. By bombing civilians and depriving them of food and medical care, he has killed more than 700 people in the past several weeks, on top of nearly 500,000 killed since the civil war began in 2011.The use of poison gas, a war crime under international law, has been integral to Mr. Assad’s scorched-earth drive to regain control of the last rebel-held areas near Damascus. By bombing civilians and depriving them of food and medical care, he has killed more than 700 people in the past several weeks, on top of nearly 500,000 killed since the civil war began in 2011.
Mr. Trump seems less sure-footed about responding to atrocities in a war that has become even more complex with the Islamic State degraded. Unlike in April, Mr. Trump has said nothing about possible military retaliation. While The Washington Post reported that he has discussed the matter with top national security officials, the Pentagon denies it.Mr. Trump seems less sure-footed about responding to atrocities in a war that has become even more complex with the Islamic State degraded. Unlike in April, Mr. Trump has said nothing about possible military retaliation. While The Washington Post reported that he has discussed the matter with top national security officials, the Pentagon denies it.
Military action is never a panacea, though, and often the wrong choice. Mr. Trump’s attack, not authorized by Congress or the United Nations, wasn’t part of a larger strategy. It raised questions about whether he acted impulsively, was consumed with being the anti-Obama or wanted to fulfill his own vision of “toughness.” The one-off military strikes achieved little, as studies have shown is usually the case, and exponentially more Syrians have been killed with conventional weapons than with chemical weapons.Military action is never a panacea, though, and often the wrong choice. Mr. Trump’s attack, not authorized by Congress or the United Nations, wasn’t part of a larger strategy. It raised questions about whether he acted impulsively, was consumed with being the anti-Obama or wanted to fulfill his own vision of “toughness.” The one-off military strikes achieved little, as studies have shown is usually the case, and exponentially more Syrians have been killed with conventional weapons than with chemical weapons.
Mr. Obama and Mr. Trump both seem to have gotten it wrong, with the first relying too heavily on diplomacy and the second too heavily on force. The credible threat of force can make diplomacy more effective.Mr. Obama and Mr. Trump both seem to have gotten it wrong, with the first relying too heavily on diplomacy and the second too heavily on force. The credible threat of force can make diplomacy more effective.
At least, in choosing to hold off rather than strike in response to the gas attack, Mr. Obama decided instead to work with Russia to get Syria to destroy its chemical weapons. That approach deprived Mr. Assad of much of his arsenal, though he hid some of chemical weapons and probably continued to make more, with supplies from North Korea. At least, in choosing to hold off rather than strike in response to the gas attack, Mr. Obama decided instead to work with Russia to get Syria to destroy its chemical weapons. That approach deprived Mr. Assad of much of his arsenal, though he hid some chemical weapons and probably continued to make more, with supplies from North Korea.
Whatever America’s shortcomings, the real culprits in the slaughter are Mr. Assad and Russia, which guaranteed Syrian compliance with the chemical weapons accord. United Nations investigators have linked Russian forces to a possible war crime, airstrikes on a market last year that killed scores of civilians. Russia has been Mr. Assad’s major defender, using its veto to shield him from penalties in the United Nations Security Council. In November, its veto ended the mandate of an independent panel the Council set up to prove who is responsible for these horrors.Whatever America’s shortcomings, the real culprits in the slaughter are Mr. Assad and Russia, which guaranteed Syrian compliance with the chemical weapons accord. United Nations investigators have linked Russian forces to a possible war crime, airstrikes on a market last year that killed scores of civilians. Russia has been Mr. Assad’s major defender, using its veto to shield him from penalties in the United Nations Security Council. In November, its veto ended the mandate of an independent panel the Council set up to prove who is responsible for these horrors.
While United Nations inspectors have found the Islamic State responsible for many attacks, Syria’s government, with a decades-old chemical weapons program, has had the means to produce such weapons in large quantities and deliver them with helicopters and jets over wide areas.While United Nations inspectors have found the Islamic State responsible for many attacks, Syria’s government, with a decades-old chemical weapons program, has had the means to produce such weapons in large quantities and deliver them with helicopters and jets over wide areas.
In January France and 25 other countries began to publicize and impose sanctions on those who help Syria get and use chemical weapons. It can be an important database for prosecuting the culprits, which needs to happen as soon as possible. But it can’t substitute for the Security Council, which, at its most united, has a chance of confronting major world problems. That’s off the table now because of Russia’s obstructionism, including a refusal to enforce even its own call for a cease-fire. The longer the war goes on, the more people die and the more destabilized the region becomes.In January France and 25 other countries began to publicize and impose sanctions on those who help Syria get and use chemical weapons. It can be an important database for prosecuting the culprits, which needs to happen as soon as possible. But it can’t substitute for the Security Council, which, at its most united, has a chance of confronting major world problems. That’s off the table now because of Russia’s obstructionism, including a refusal to enforce even its own call for a cease-fire. The longer the war goes on, the more people die and the more destabilized the region becomes.
Yet Mr. Trump remains silent. He has claimed that his close relations with Russia, despite its interference in American politics and other malicious acts, were part of a new approach to work with President Vladimir Putin on national security. There is no evidence this has yielded any benefit. Given the poisoned nature of American-Russian relations, maybe the best Mr. Trump can do is to ask Arab leaders who are expected at the White House this month to use their growing leverage with Moscow to push for an end to the carnage. Now.Yet Mr. Trump remains silent. He has claimed that his close relations with Russia, despite its interference in American politics and other malicious acts, were part of a new approach to work with President Vladimir Putin on national security. There is no evidence this has yielded any benefit. Given the poisoned nature of American-Russian relations, maybe the best Mr. Trump can do is to ask Arab leaders who are expected at the White House this month to use their growing leverage with Moscow to push for an end to the carnage. Now.