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| Defying critics, N Korea turns 60 | Defying critics, N Korea turns 60 |
| (about 5 hours later) | |
| By John Sudworth BBC News, Seoul North Korea remains the world's most secretive communist state | By John Sudworth BBC News, Seoul North Korea remains the world's most secretive communist state |
| If North Korea has just one thing to celebrate upon reaching its 60th birthday, then perhaps it is survival itself. | If North Korea has just one thing to celebrate upon reaching its 60th birthday, then perhaps it is survival itself. |
| For decades it has defied the many outside observers who predicted its imminent collapse. | For decades it has defied the many outside observers who predicted its imminent collapse. |
| Other communist countries have been bent or broken by the tide of history. | Other communist countries have been bent or broken by the tide of history. |
| China and Vietnam have embraced market forces and opened up to the outside world and Cuba seems to be inching towards the possibility of more reform. | China and Vietnam have embraced market forces and opened up to the outside world and Cuba seems to be inching towards the possibility of more reform. |
| But North Korea remains, steadfastly, the world's most monolithic and secretive communist state. | But North Korea remains, steadfastly, the world's most monolithic and secretive communist state. |
| It is also, by almost any objective account, an economic disaster. | It is also, by almost any objective account, an economic disaster. |
| So, as it mobilises what is said to be its largest-ever gathering of troops and military hardware for the 60th anniversary parade, the question is: how has it survived for so long? | So, as it mobilises what is said to be its largest-ever gathering of troops and military hardware for the 60th anniversary parade, the question is: how has it survived for so long? |
| Today, the gap between the two halves of the divided Korean peninsula is all too plain to see. | |
| The South is a vibrant democracy with a prosperous, powerhouse economy, pumping out hi-tech cars and televisions to every corner of the globe. | The South is a vibrant democracy with a prosperous, powerhouse economy, pumping out hi-tech cars and televisions to every corner of the globe. |
| The North is a one-party state with an agricultural system stuck in the 19th Century that cannot feed its own hungry people. | The North is a one-party state with an agricultural system stuck in the 19th Century that cannot feed its own hungry people. |
| Economic decay | Economic decay |
| But it was not always this way. | But it was not always this way. |
| North Korea is widely recognised as a serious violator of human rightsThe two modern-day Koreas came into being following the defeat of the Japanese colonial occupiers by allied forces in World War II. | North Korea is widely recognised as a serious violator of human rightsThe two modern-day Koreas came into being following the defeat of the Japanese colonial occupiers by allied forces in World War II. |
| The peninsula was split, with the Soviets controlling the north and the United States controlling the south. | |
| The pattern was set for the creation, a few years later, of the two ideologically opposed Korean nations. | The pattern was set for the creation, a few years later, of the two ideologically opposed Korean nations. |
| And for the next 20 years the two countries looked very much like equal adversaries. | And for the next 20 years the two countries looked very much like equal adversaries. |
| The balance of Cold War power saw North and South fight to a stalemate in the Korean war, backed as they were by Chinese and US troops respectively. | The balance of Cold War power saw North and South fight to a stalemate in the Korean war, backed as they were by Chinese and US troops respectively. |
| Gross National Product per capita was higher in the North than the South well into the mid-1970s according to some estimates, and in 1984 North Korea actually sent food aid to the South. | Gross National Product per capita was higher in the North than the South well into the mid-1970s according to some estimates, and in 1984 North Korea actually sent food aid to the South. |
| But like other Soviet-style command economies, the seeds of North Korea's economic decay had already been sown. | But like other Soviet-style command economies, the seeds of North Korea's economic decay had already been sown. |
| The danger of possible US invasion of North Korea, real or exaggerated, has tended to rally the North Korean people around the regime Paik Nak-chungSeoul National University South Korea embraced democracy, dumped its military rulers, and went into capitalist overdrive. | The danger of possible US invasion of North Korea, real or exaggerated, has tended to rally the North Korean people around the regime Paik Nak-chungSeoul National University South Korea embraced democracy, dumped its military rulers, and went into capitalist overdrive. |
| North Korea by the early 1990s, with the loss of Soviet support, was heading for a famine that would claim up to a million lives. | North Korea by the early 1990s, with the loss of Soviet support, was heading for a famine that would claim up to a million lives. |
| Paik Nak-chung is an honorary professor at Seoul National University. | Paik Nak-chung is an honorary professor at Seoul National University. |
| His view as to why North Korea has not gone the same way as its Cold War backers is not uncommon on the left of South Korean politics. | His view as to why North Korea has not gone the same way as its Cold War backers is not uncommon on the left of South Korean politics. |
| The continued US military presence in South Korea, he says, has not so much undermined the regime in the North, as strengthened it. | The continued US military presence in South Korea, he says, has not so much undermined the regime in the North, as strengthened it. |
| "The division of the peninsula has much to do with the lack of change," Mr Paik tells me. | |
| "The danger of possible US invasion of North Korea, real or exaggerated, has tended to rally the North Korean people around the regime." | "The danger of possible US invasion of North Korea, real or exaggerated, has tended to rally the North Korean people around the regime." |
| International concern | International concern |
| Certainly the North Korean masses are used to constant reminders that their existence is under threat from a hostile, outside world. | Certainly the North Korean masses are used to constant reminders that their existence is under threat from a hostile, outside world. |
| Leader Kim Jong-il retains a stranglehold on power in North KoreaOn the eve of the 60th anniversary celebrations comes a classic example. | Leader Kim Jong-il retains a stranglehold on power in North KoreaOn the eve of the 60th anniversary celebrations comes a classic example. |
| "Should the enemies dare to ignite a war," the communist state cabinet said, "we will mercilessly punish the invaders, mobilising all potential build up in the midst of the rainstorm of military-oriented revolution and achieve a final victory in an anti-US war." | "Should the enemies dare to ignite a war," the communist state cabinet said, "we will mercilessly punish the invaders, mobilising all potential build up in the midst of the rainstorm of military-oriented revolution and achieve a final victory in an anti-US war." |
| Professor Andrei Lankov, from Seoul's Kookmin University, has spent time living and studying in Pyongyang. | Professor Andrei Lankov, from Seoul's Kookmin University, has spent time living and studying in Pyongyang. |
| He has a different theory as to why North Korea has proven so resilient: it will not fall because the international community do not really want it to. | He has a different theory as to why North Korea has proven so resilient: it will not fall because the international community do not really want it to. |
| "The outside is terrified of collapse, so no-one is pushing North Korea hard enough," he says. | "The outside is terrified of collapse, so no-one is pushing North Korea hard enough," he says. |
| The very economic disparity that makes life so miserable for North Korea's citizens would also mean an economic crisis for North Korea's neighbours if the borders came down. | The very economic disparity that makes life so miserable for North Korea's citizens would also mean an economic crisis for North Korea's neighbours if the borders came down. |
| For the same reason, he believes, nobody inside the country will risk a challenge to the autocratic stranglehold on power exercised by its dynastic ruler, Kim Jong-il. | For the same reason, he believes, nobody inside the country will risk a challenge to the autocratic stranglehold on power exercised by its dynastic ruler, Kim Jong-il. |
| North Korea has managed to out-manoeuvre the world by keeping its entire population frozen with fear Professor Andrei LankovSeoul's Kookmin University "No-one dares," Mr Lankov says, "as the entire system would go down, taking with it reformers and conservatives alike." | North Korea has managed to out-manoeuvre the world by keeping its entire population frozen with fear Professor Andrei LankovSeoul's Kookmin University "No-one dares," Mr Lankov says, "as the entire system would go down, taking with it reformers and conservatives alike." |
| South Korea would perhaps have the most to fear from the economic consequences. | South Korea would perhaps have the most to fear from the economic consequences. |
| The generous engagement, aid and trade offered Northwards by Seoul's previous liberal governments may have done much, some argue, to prop up Pyongyang. | The generous engagement, aid and trade offered Northwards by Seoul's previous liberal governments may have done much, some argue, to prop up Pyongyang. |
| Sixty years ago North Korea began life with a vision of land reform, improved agricultural yields and new freedom for its workers. | Sixty years ago North Korea began life with a vision of land reform, improved agricultural yields and new freedom for its workers. |
| By 1949 it claimed to be the first Asian country to have eliminated illiteracy. | By 1949 it claimed to be the first Asian country to have eliminated illiteracy. |
| At the age of 60 it is widely recognised as a serious violator of human rights. | At the age of 60 it is widely recognised as a serious violator of human rights. |
| It runs labour camps, denies freedom of speech and travel, and it is reliant on foreign food aid, much of it from the United States. | It runs labour camps, denies freedom of speech and travel, and it is reliant on foreign food aid, much of it from the United States. |
| But surely, after all this time, there must be something worth celebrating, I ask Mr Lankov. | But surely, after all this time, there must be something worth celebrating, I ask Mr Lankov. |
| "Probably not," he says. | "Probably not," he says. |
| "North Korea has managed to out-manoeuvre the world by keeping its entire population frozen with fear. Survival is not something we should admire such a country for." | "North Korea has managed to out-manoeuvre the world by keeping its entire population frozen with fear. Survival is not something we should admire such a country for." |