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You can find the current article at its original source at https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2018/jan/30/transition-toxic-brexiters-remainers-tories-europeans
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| Version 3 | Version 4 |
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| The transition is toxic for both Brexiters and remainers | The transition is toxic for both Brexiters and remainers |
| (5 days later) | |
| Tue 30 Jan 2018 11.12 GMT | Tue 30 Jan 2018 11.12 GMT |
| Last modified on Wed 14 Feb 2018 15.27 GMT | |
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| The government’s Brexit policy is so chaotic that it is hiding from the voters the results of its own analysis, which predicts a hit to the economy of up to 8% over the next 15 years. Asked why the prime minister was not publishing the study, which has now leaked, a government source told BuzzFeed News: “Because it’s embarrassing.” | The government’s Brexit policy is so chaotic that it is hiding from the voters the results of its own analysis, which predicts a hit to the economy of up to 8% over the next 15 years. Asked why the prime minister was not publishing the study, which has now leaked, a government source told BuzzFeed News: “Because it’s embarrassing.” |
| But it’s not just the government’s long-range plans that will be destructive. Its policy for stopping the economy falling off a cliff if we quit the EU next March, a transition of about two years when nothing much changes, is also in a mess. | But it’s not just the government’s long-range plans that will be destructive. Its policy for stopping the economy falling off a cliff if we quit the EU next March, a transition of about two years when nothing much changes, is also in a mess. |
| As the EU made clear in its negotiating guidelines on Monday, we will have to follow all the club’s rules during this stopgap period without any say on them. We’ll even have to follow new regulations. No wonder Tory Brexiters are in a tizzy. No wonder Jacob Rees-Mogg and Boris Johnson say this would turn us into a “vassal state”. | As the EU made clear in its negotiating guidelines on Monday, we will have to follow all the club’s rules during this stopgap period without any say on them. We’ll even have to follow new regulations. No wonder Tory Brexiters are in a tizzy. No wonder Jacob Rees-Mogg and Boris Johnson say this would turn us into a “vassal state”. |
| But it’s not just the Brextremists who are worried. Patriotic pro-Europeans are also concerned that we would be swapping our current position, where we are one of the most influential players in Europe, for that of a rule-taker. We would lose our votes in the council of ministers, our MEPs, our commissioner and our judge on the European court of justice. That’s losing, not taking back control. | But it’s not just the Brextremists who are worried. Patriotic pro-Europeans are also concerned that we would be swapping our current position, where we are one of the most influential players in Europe, for that of a rule-taker. We would lose our votes in the council of ministers, our MEPs, our commissioner and our judge on the European court of justice. That’s losing, not taking back control. |
| The government is hoping to find a way of managing things if a new rule is imposed against our interests. But there’s little chance of the EU agreeing to that. In the end, as on all other issues so far in the Brexit talks, our hapless prime minister will probably come to heel. | The government is hoping to find a way of managing things if a new rule is imposed against our interests. But there’s little chance of the EU agreeing to that. In the end, as on all other issues so far in the Brexit talks, our hapless prime minister will probably come to heel. |
| But the Tory transition isn’t toxic just because we’ll lose control; it won’t even stop the economy falling off a cliff. It will merely postpone the damage, since the EU says it wants the transitional period to finish at the end of 2020. | But the Tory transition isn’t toxic just because we’ll lose control; it won’t even stop the economy falling off a cliff. It will merely postpone the damage, since the EU says it wants the transitional period to finish at the end of 2020. |
| Instead of the 'bridge to the future' that David Davis claims the government is building, it is actually constructing a bridge to nowhere | Instead of the 'bridge to the future' that David Davis claims the government is building, it is actually constructing a bridge to nowhere |
| Theresa May persists with the fantasy that we will be able to nail down our future trade relationship with the EU by next March and the transition is just needed to implement it. This is either delusional or dishonest. Cabinet ministers are fighting like ferrets in a sack over what our future deal should look like, while the prime minister herself hasn’t got a clue and has just cancelled a speech that was supposed to tell us. As a result, even preliminary negotiations with the EU on the “framework” of the future relationship can’t start. | Theresa May persists with the fantasy that we will be able to nail down our future trade relationship with the EU by next March and the transition is just needed to implement it. This is either delusional or dishonest. Cabinet ministers are fighting like ferrets in a sack over what our future deal should look like, while the prime minister herself hasn’t got a clue and has just cancelled a speech that was supposed to tell us. As a result, even preliminary negotiations with the EU on the “framework” of the future relationship can’t start. |
| What’s more, the proper talks can only begin once we quit the EU – and those will take years. So, instead of the “bridge to the future” that David Davis, the Brexit secretary, claims the government is building, it is actually constructing a bridge to nowhere. | What’s more, the proper talks can only begin once we quit the EU – and those will take years. So, instead of the “bridge to the future” that David Davis, the Brexit secretary, claims the government is building, it is actually constructing a bridge to nowhere. |
| This doesn’t just mean the economy could get thwacked in 2021 – as we will then lose privileged access to a market responsible for half our trade. Business will be stuck in limbo-land until then, meaning the current near-freeze in investment will go on and on. | This doesn’t just mean the economy could get thwacked in 2021 – as we will then lose privileged access to a market responsible for half our trade. Business will be stuck in limbo-land until then, meaning the current near-freeze in investment will go on and on. |
| One solution to the so-called “vassal state” problem, proposed on Monday by John Bruton, the former Irish prime minister, is that we should just extend the article 50 process – staying in the EU until we had figured out our future deal. | One solution to the so-called “vassal state” problem, proposed on Monday by John Bruton, the former Irish prime minister, is that we should just extend the article 50 process – staying in the EU until we had figured out our future deal. |
| If we were able to do this, it would be an excellent idea. The snag is that it would require unanimous approval by all the other 27 countries, not to mention our own government. They won’t want to delay our departure just so we can tie them up in endless talks. If we’re going, they want us out before the European parliament elections next year. They want to focus on other important topics such as shoring up the eurozone and dealing with migration from Africa and the Middle East. | If we were able to do this, it would be an excellent idea. The snag is that it would require unanimous approval by all the other 27 countries, not to mention our own government. They won’t want to delay our departure just so we can tie them up in endless talks. If we’re going, they want us out before the European parliament elections next year. They want to focus on other important topics such as shoring up the eurozone and dealing with migration from Africa and the Middle East. |
| Meanwhile, the simplest solution to the 2021 cliff edge would be to ask the EU for a longer transition. UK officials have, indeed, started canvassing a three-year stopgap according to the Telegraph and the Independent – although the government has denied this. A variation on the theme would be to ask for a transitional deal that we could extend if need be. | Meanwhile, the simplest solution to the 2021 cliff edge would be to ask the EU for a longer transition. UK officials have, indeed, started canvassing a three-year stopgap according to the Telegraph and the Independent – although the government has denied this. A variation on the theme would be to ask for a transitional deal that we could extend if need be. |
| The EU might well agree to these proposals. The snag, of course, is that the Tory Brextremists would have a conniption, arguing that we’d be a vassal state for even longer. We’d also have to pay yet more money for the privilege, as the £39bn divorce deal the prime minister agreed before Christmas only covers our dues until end 2020. | The EU might well agree to these proposals. The snag, of course, is that the Tory Brextremists would have a conniption, arguing that we’d be a vassal state for even longer. We’d also have to pay yet more money for the privilege, as the £39bn divorce deal the prime minister agreed before Christmas only covers our dues until end 2020. |
| What’s more, we’d probably lose our budget rebate – meaning the extra payment each year would be about £12bn net. Even patriotic pro-Europeans would worry that this amounted to taxation without representation. | What’s more, we’d probably lose our budget rebate – meaning the extra payment each year would be about £12bn net. Even patriotic pro-Europeans would worry that this amounted to taxation without representation. |
| Finally, the three-year transition UK officials are reportedly exploring wouldn’t do the trick either. It would just shift the cliff to 2022. | Finally, the three-year transition UK officials are reportedly exploring wouldn’t do the trick either. It would just shift the cliff to 2022. |
| There is, of course, one way to avoid both a cliff edge and keep control: cancel Brexit. | There is, of course, one way to avoid both a cliff edge and keep control: cancel Brexit. |
| • Hugo Dixon is chairman and editor-in-chief of infacts.org, a journalistic enterprise making the fact-based case for Britain to stay in the EU | • Hugo Dixon is chairman and editor-in-chief of infacts.org, a journalistic enterprise making the fact-based case for Britain to stay in the EU |
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