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| Theresa May is losing control. She must step up or help find a successor | Theresa May is losing control. She must step up or help find a successor |
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| Screens announcing the roster of speakers gracing Davos showed Theresa May’s name, with the “h” missing. A rare slip of the Swiss typing finger until it was corrected, but it felt symbolic. Having your name mangled when the organisers can get Emmerson Mnangagwa and Benjamin Netanyahu right is a bird of ill omen. Entire flocks of the creatures have descended on the prime minister, a sign that her premiership is doomed to be a slog, enlivened by crises. Serving in the government, as one junior minister puts it, “is like living in a miserable multi-part drama”. Some of Theresa May’s misfortunes are circumstantial. | Screens announcing the roster of speakers gracing Davos showed Theresa May’s name, with the “h” missing. A rare slip of the Swiss typing finger until it was corrected, but it felt symbolic. Having your name mangled when the organisers can get Emmerson Mnangagwa and Benjamin Netanyahu right is a bird of ill omen. Entire flocks of the creatures have descended on the prime minister, a sign that her premiership is doomed to be a slog, enlivened by crises. Serving in the government, as one junior minister puts it, “is like living in a miserable multi-part drama”. Some of Theresa May’s misfortunes are circumstantial. |
| Whoever was left holding the reins was going to reap a harvest of bitterness, irreconcilable views and aversions in her party and the country. When critics berate mismanagement of Brexit, it is unclear what a well-managed exit from the EU would look like. Angela Merkel made clear again last week that she will allow no fudge on the interdependency of single market membership and absolute freedom of movement, a rigidity that makes soft Brexit harder to achieve. | Whoever was left holding the reins was going to reap a harvest of bitterness, irreconcilable views and aversions in her party and the country. When critics berate mismanagement of Brexit, it is unclear what a well-managed exit from the EU would look like. Angela Merkel made clear again last week that she will allow no fudge on the interdependency of single market membership and absolute freedom of movement, a rigidity that makes soft Brexit harder to achieve. |
| Now that trade negotiations need to proceed fast to hit the article 50 deadline, even the old trick of making choices sound as technocratic as possible isn’t working. A senior German official noted last week that it was “impossible” for the two sides to make progress – until May decides what she wants, “not just what she is intent on avoiding”. | Now that trade negotiations need to proceed fast to hit the article 50 deadline, even the old trick of making choices sound as technocratic as possible isn’t working. A senior German official noted last week that it was “impossible” for the two sides to make progress – until May decides what she wants, “not just what she is intent on avoiding”. |
| That view is becoming more potent in the Tory party, too. Even the promise that negotiations will somehow yield a solution deft enough to avoid a full blow-up among Conservatives no longer works. The lulls between serious rows keeps getting shorter, the provocations bolder, from Boris Johnson’s sudden interest in increasing NHS funding to former minister Nick Boles’s tweet observing that his PM “constantly disappoints” and Jacob Rees-Mogg’s outrage over the alleged betrayal of Brexit. Personnel misjudgement wreaks vengeance too. May promoted Gavin Wiliamson, her Chief Whip, to the role of Defence Secretary. Now he is in trouble, with an odd lack of clarity about an old office “tryst” and the terms on which he left his job. Even if Williamson survives, it looks like an unwise risk to have promoted him. | That view is becoming more potent in the Tory party, too. Even the promise that negotiations will somehow yield a solution deft enough to avoid a full blow-up among Conservatives no longer works. The lulls between serious rows keeps getting shorter, the provocations bolder, from Boris Johnson’s sudden interest in increasing NHS funding to former minister Nick Boles’s tweet observing that his PM “constantly disappoints” and Jacob Rees-Mogg’s outrage over the alleged betrayal of Brexit. Personnel misjudgement wreaks vengeance too. May promoted Gavin Wiliamson, her Chief Whip, to the role of Defence Secretary. Now he is in trouble, with an odd lack of clarity about an old office “tryst” and the terms on which he left his job. Even if Williamson survives, it looks like an unwise risk to have promoted him. |
| It is easy to forget that May did once have a good number of loyalists behind her. If she was not an enthralling helmswoman, she came with long experience in a tough brief as home secretary, had fought her way to the fore against some snobbery and sexism and was an early, outspoken outrider against the view of Tories as the “nasty party”. Diminished ranks of supporters speak of her tentatively as “the right leader for now”. Barring a Lazarus recovery, mid-2019 is now widely seen as the latest point in her leadership life cycle. But a targeted takedown or just an avalanche of disasters could carry her off earlier. May looked depleted and grey at Davos, a self-presentation that contrasted with memories of her ability to strut the raked stage at party conferences. | It is easy to forget that May did once have a good number of loyalists behind her. If she was not an enthralling helmswoman, she came with long experience in a tough brief as home secretary, had fought her way to the fore against some snobbery and sexism and was an early, outspoken outrider against the view of Tories as the “nasty party”. Diminished ranks of supporters speak of her tentatively as “the right leader for now”. Barring a Lazarus recovery, mid-2019 is now widely seen as the latest point in her leadership life cycle. But a targeted takedown or just an avalanche of disasters could carry her off earlier. May looked depleted and grey at Davos, a self-presentation that contrasted with memories of her ability to strut the raked stage at party conferences. |
| In fairness, recent events would take the patience of combined saints. Last week, she had to listen to Philip Hammond joke about the risks of deciding to call elections while on Alpine holidays, a jibe that brought back May’s election pratfall. The chancellor preached a Brexit “selectively” prising UK and European trade arrangements “modestly” apart, while changing not very much. It sounded like a set of new regulations for electric plugs rather than leaving the EU and duly called forth protest from Brexiters so strong that May had to disown the comments to fend off rebellion and Hammond was forced (after a terse conversation with the PM) to issue a fudging statement about pragmatism – whatever that may be. | In fairness, recent events would take the patience of combined saints. Last week, she had to listen to Philip Hammond joke about the risks of deciding to call elections while on Alpine holidays, a jibe that brought back May’s election pratfall. The chancellor preached a Brexit “selectively” prising UK and European trade arrangements “modestly” apart, while changing not very much. It sounded like a set of new regulations for electric plugs rather than leaving the EU and duly called forth protest from Brexiters so strong that May had to disown the comments to fend off rebellion and Hammond was forced (after a terse conversation with the PM) to issue a fudging statement about pragmatism – whatever that may be. |
| The past weeks have worsened May’s standing with her cabinet. Boris Johnson and Michael Gove separately raised objections to Hammond’s comments with the prime minister. “How in one house, Should many people under two commands, Hold amity? Tis hard, almost impossible,” observes Regan in King Lear. A member of the Nasty Party she certainly was, but Regan had a point. The House of May now has a confusing number of people pressing for a la carte types of Brexit and overall control of the argument sways from one faction to another. A more fundamental problem is the lack of ideas. Sometimes, as in her conference speech (splutters notwithstanding), we got a hint of where she would like to see her party: the admission that the housing ladder is now unattainable for all but the very fortunate, a sense that the bargain of hard work for just reward is too often unfulfilled and her (genuine) compassion for the hard-pressed. The trouble is: very little results from these hints. Even ideas that are recognisably Conservative, such as trialling new varieties of grammar schools in poor areas, end up suspended | The past weeks have worsened May’s standing with her cabinet. Boris Johnson and Michael Gove separately raised objections to Hammond’s comments with the prime minister. “How in one house, Should many people under two commands, Hold amity? Tis hard, almost impossible,” observes Regan in King Lear. A member of the Nasty Party she certainly was, but Regan had a point. The House of May now has a confusing number of people pressing for a la carte types of Brexit and overall control of the argument sways from one faction to another. A more fundamental problem is the lack of ideas. Sometimes, as in her conference speech (splutters notwithstanding), we got a hint of where she would like to see her party: the admission that the housing ladder is now unattainable for all but the very fortunate, a sense that the bargain of hard work for just reward is too often unfulfilled and her (genuine) compassion for the hard-pressed. The trouble is: very little results from these hints. Even ideas that are recognisably Conservative, such as trialling new varieties of grammar schools in poor areas, end up suspended |
| The vacuum is filled by ministerial manoeuvre. The more potent danger is Boris Johnson, who, after a period he privately admits was a gruelling early tenure at the Foreign Office, has decided to expand his turf, whether or not Number 10 likes it. Spearheading a push to unleash more NHS spending is in part a tactical way of fulfilling his slippery referendum pledge that Brexit would free up extra £350m for health spending. Of course, what is spent on health has nothing to do with whether we leave the EU, but it allows Boris to claim sufficient vindication. Jeremy Hunt, among others originally supportive of May, has tired of her brittle style and indecision. | The vacuum is filled by ministerial manoeuvre. The more potent danger is Boris Johnson, who, after a period he privately admits was a gruelling early tenure at the Foreign Office, has decided to expand his turf, whether or not Number 10 likes it. Spearheading a push to unleash more NHS spending is in part a tactical way of fulfilling his slippery referendum pledge that Brexit would free up extra £350m for health spending. Of course, what is spent on health has nothing to do with whether we leave the EU, but it allows Boris to claim sufficient vindication. Jeremy Hunt, among others originally supportive of May, has tired of her brittle style and indecision. |
| Senior Tories also wonder, since austerity and the hope of a balanced budget are off the table: why not simply bring forward a rise in health spending? The PM’s habit of announcing fiddly measures, rather than committing to big ones, irks. A “minister for loneliness” (one can see why May felt a certain empathy) should sit alongside a clearer new health and social care merger plan, not be announced ahead of it. A commitment to address the housing crisis has been announced, but construction is one of the sectors underperforming. The pace of implementation is grindingly slow. | Senior Tories also wonder, since austerity and the hope of a balanced budget are off the table: why not simply bring forward a rise in health spending? The PM’s habit of announcing fiddly measures, rather than committing to big ones, irks. A “minister for loneliness” (one can see why May felt a certain empathy) should sit alongside a clearer new health and social care merger plan, not be announced ahead of it. A commitment to address the housing crisis has been announced, but construction is one of the sectors underperforming. The pace of implementation is grindingly slow. |
| Opportunities do still arise. May’s forthcoming trip to China should give her the chance to spread the message that the UK is an open and ambitious free trade power with an eye on markets beyond its own continent. It is, however, uphill work for someone who made clear when George Osborne conducted his opening to Beijing as chancellor that she had grave doubts about the undertaking. A former adviser’s story last week of May avoiding meeting the head of Alibaba at Davos last year, preferring to eat fondue, was telling. Schmoozing for Britain is part of the job these days and it cannot be contracted out. | Opportunities do still arise. May’s forthcoming trip to China should give her the chance to spread the message that the UK is an open and ambitious free trade power with an eye on markets beyond its own continent. It is, however, uphill work for someone who made clear when George Osborne conducted his opening to Beijing as chancellor that she had grave doubts about the undertaking. A former adviser’s story last week of May avoiding meeting the head of Alibaba at Davos last year, preferring to eat fondue, was telling. Schmoozing for Britain is part of the job these days and it cannot be contracted out. |
| The question preoccupying Number 10 is whether this all comes to a head as the result of a 1990s-style Eurosceptic rebellion, of the kind that finished off John Major. Or whether an alliance of centrists including Hunt and Amber Rudd, flanked by outright modernisers, including the sparky new culture secretary, Matt Hancock, decide that the drift has become untenable. Boris, for all his flaws and unpopularity with MPs, still looks like the Brexiter to beat, if the moment comes. But a mixture of soft Brexiters and outright Remainers could unify on a candidate of their own. | The question preoccupying Number 10 is whether this all comes to a head as the result of a 1990s-style Eurosceptic rebellion, of the kind that finished off John Major. Or whether an alliance of centrists including Hunt and Amber Rudd, flanked by outright modernisers, including the sparky new culture secretary, Matt Hancock, decide that the drift has become untenable. Boris, for all his flaws and unpopularity with MPs, still looks like the Brexiter to beat, if the moment comes. But a mixture of soft Brexiters and outright Remainers could unify on a candidate of their own. |
| An intriguing scenario, put to me by a campaigns veteran, is that May could “rescue her legacy” by offering to stand down, but declare a long leadership contest, of the type that Michael Howard masterminded to allow the newcomer, David Cameron, to gather his forces. Events unfolding in this way would allow the steady Rudd to define herself and boost a flimsy majority in her Hastings seat. More adventurously, it could also enable Ruth Davidson to acquire a safe seat, an elder having made way for the Queen of the North. That, says my source, “would be a game changer”. Either way, sharper choices will need to made about which way the party wants to face, on Brexit and on Britain. The longer the ducking and diving continues, the more clumsy the government becomes. That diagnosis now runs too deep in her own ranks for Theresa May to sleep easily, even after all that mountain air and fondue. | An intriguing scenario, put to me by a campaigns veteran, is that May could “rescue her legacy” by offering to stand down, but declare a long leadership contest, of the type that Michael Howard masterminded to allow the newcomer, David Cameron, to gather his forces. Events unfolding in this way would allow the steady Rudd to define herself and boost a flimsy majority in her Hastings seat. More adventurously, it could also enable Ruth Davidson to acquire a safe seat, an elder having made way for the Queen of the North. That, says my source, “would be a game changer”. Either way, sharper choices will need to made about which way the party wants to face, on Brexit and on Britain. The longer the ducking and diving continues, the more clumsy the government becomes. That diagnosis now runs too deep in her own ranks for Theresa May to sleep easily, even after all that mountain air and fondue. |
| Davos is a Swiss ski resort now more famous for hosting the annual four-day conference for the World Economic Forum. For participants it is a festival of networking. Getting an invitation is a sign you have made it – and the elaborate system of badges reveals your place in the Davos hierarchy. | Davos is a Swiss ski resort now more famous for hosting the annual four-day conference for the World Economic Forum. For participants it is a festival of networking. Getting an invitation is a sign you have made it – and the elaborate system of badges reveals your place in the Davos hierarchy. |
| For critics, “Davos man” is shorthand for the globe-trotting elite, disconnected from their home countries after spending too much time in the club-class lounge. Others just wonder if it is all a big waste of time.Who is there? | For critics, “Davos man” is shorthand for the globe-trotting elite, disconnected from their home countries after spending too much time in the club-class lounge. Others just wonder if it is all a big waste of time.Who is there? |
| More than 2,500 people – business leaders, politicians such as Donald Trump, diplomats and the odd celebrity, such as Cate Blanchett – will fly in for the 48th annual Davos meeting. As usual most delegates are men: just 17% of are women. Although the forum boasts delegates from more than 100 countries, most hail from western Europe, followed by the US. The smallest number of delegates come from Latin America and Africa. | More than 2,500 people – business leaders, politicians such as Donald Trump, diplomats and the odd celebrity, such as Cate Blanchett – will fly in for the 48th annual Davos meeting. As usual most delegates are men: just 17% of are women. Although the forum boasts delegates from more than 100 countries, most hail from western Europe, followed by the US. The smallest number of delegates come from Latin America and Africa. |
| Anne McElvoy is senior editor at the Economist | Anne McElvoy is senior editor at the Economist |