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| UK manufacturing performs strongly in November signalling positive final quarter for 2017 | UK manufacturing performs strongly in November signalling positive final quarter for 2017 |
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| Manufacturing continued to perform strongly in November, signalling that the sector will make a decent contribution to overall UK growth in the final quarter of 2017. | Manufacturing continued to perform strongly in November, signalling that the sector will make a decent contribution to overall UK growth in the final quarter of 2017. |
| The Office for National Statistics reported that manufacturing output grew by 0.4 per cent in the month and October’s growth was also revised up from 0.1 per cent to 0.3 per cent. | The Office for National Statistics reported that manufacturing output grew by 0.4 per cent in the month and October’s growth was also revised up from 0.1 per cent to 0.3 per cent. |
| The annual rate of expansion for the sector, which accounts for 10 per cent of the economy. in the three months to November was 3.9 per cent, the most rapid since March 2011. | The annual rate of expansion for the sector, which accounts for 10 per cent of the economy. in the three months to November was 3.9 per cent, the most rapid since March 2011. |
| The ONS said that there were “notable increases” from renewable energy manufacturing projects, boats, planes and cars for export over the period. | The ONS said that there were “notable increases” from renewable energy manufacturing projects, boats, planes and cars for export over the period. |
| Manufacturing has been boosted by a weaker pound since the Brexit vote in 2016, which has boosted exports, and also by an upturn in the global economy. | Manufacturing has been boosted by a weaker pound since the Brexit vote in 2016, which has boosted exports, and also by an upturn in the global economy. |
| However, the latest trade figures from the ONS, also released on Wednesday, were less encouraging. | However, the latest trade figures from the ONS, also released on Wednesday, were less encouraging. |
| Goods export values rose 1 per cent in the month, while imports were up 2.1 per cent, pushing the overall goods trade deficit to £12.2bn for November, ahead of City expectations of a £10.7bn gap. | Goods export values rose 1 per cent in the month, while imports were up 2.1 per cent, pushing the overall goods trade deficit to £12.2bn for November, ahead of City expectations of a £10.7bn gap. |
| Including the services surplus, the overall trade gap was £2.8bn, up from £2.3bn in October. | |
| "Net trade likely subtracted 0.3 percentage points from quarter-on-quarter GDP growth in Q4 having had a neutral effect in the first three quarters of 2017 provided that the level of goods exports and imports held steady in December," said Samuel Tombs of Pantheon. | |
| The ONS also estimated that the construction sector, which accounts for around 6 per cent of GDP, eked out 0.4 per cent growth in November, following a 1.1 per cent drop in October. | The ONS also estimated that the construction sector, which accounts for around 6 per cent of GDP, eked out 0.4 per cent growth in November, following a 1.1 per cent drop in October. |
| Overall UK GDP is estimated to have expanded by 0.4 per cent in the third quarter, over which period manufacturing grew by 1.3 per cent. | Overall UK GDP is estimated to have expanded by 0.4 per cent in the third quarter, over which period manufacturing grew by 1.3 per cent. |
| “With consumer spending appearing to have held up well, quarterly GDP growth of 0.4 per cent or 0.5 per cent looks likely, which would see growth in 2017 as a whole come in at 1.8 per cent, barely different from 2016’s 1.9 per cent rise,” said Paul Hollingsworth of Capital Economics. | “With consumer spending appearing to have held up well, quarterly GDP growth of 0.4 per cent or 0.5 per cent looks likely, which would see growth in 2017 as a whole come in at 1.8 per cent, barely different from 2016’s 1.9 per cent rise,” said Paul Hollingsworth of Capital Economics. |
| However, that would still be the weakest annual GDP growth for the UK since 2012 at a time when other economies are picking up speed. | |
| The average independent forecast for GDP growth in 2018 is also for a further slowdown to 1.5 per cent. | |