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| The Very Stable Genius in the Very Stable White House | The Very Stable Genius in the Very Stable White House |
| (about 1 hour later) | |
| nGail: Happy 2018, Bret. What’s been your top minute so far? I’m tempted by the president’s announcement that he was not only a genius but “a very stable genius at that.” Yet I’m still sort of fixated on the my-nuclear-button-is-bigger-than-yours tweet. | |
| Bret: Donald Trump’s boasting about his “genius” reminds me of the old saying: “Being powerful is like being a lady. If you have to tell people you are, you aren’t.” I think we can safely adapt that quip to the subject of being smart. | Bret: Donald Trump’s boasting about his “genius” reminds me of the old saying: “Being powerful is like being a lady. If you have to tell people you are, you aren’t.” I think we can safely adapt that quip to the subject of being smart. |
| Then again, we can survive an intellectually deficient president. What should really worry us is someone who talks about nuclear weapons the way bratty 6-year-old boys might talk about their Tonka trucks. This is dangerous. It shows he’s flippant about the one thing no president can afford to be unserious about. 25th Amendment, hello? | |
| Gail: Cynic though I may be, I did not expect to see our right-left conversation morph into a discussion about how the president could be removed from office for mental incapacity. But here we are. | Gail: Cynic though I may be, I did not expect to see our right-left conversation morph into a discussion about how the president could be removed from office for mental incapacity. But here we are. |
| It’s pretty clear it would be almost impossible to really make that happen, unless Trump starts swinging from the chandelier and throwing rocks at White House tour groups. | It’s pretty clear it would be almost impossible to really make that happen, unless Trump starts swinging from the chandelier and throwing rocks at White House tour groups. |
| Bret: I’m not sure that would make much of a difference. Paul Ryan might say it’s all about this president’s “unique style” and Sean Hannity would note that Trump’s rocks hit only the liberals in the tour groups. But please continue. | Bret: I’m not sure that would make much of a difference. Paul Ryan might say it’s all about this president’s “unique style” and Sean Hannity would note that Trump’s rocks hit only the liberals in the tour groups. But please continue. |
| Gail: You’d need huge majorities in the House and Senate, plus a cabinet uprising to do the deed, and with Trump’s crew they’re just as likely to declare him emperor. There was a moment during a congressional hearing when someone asked Ben Carson whether he had been briefed on what his responsibilities would be under the 25th Amendment, and Carson said something along the lines of “um … no.” | Gail: You’d need huge majorities in the House and Senate, plus a cabinet uprising to do the deed, and with Trump’s crew they’re just as likely to declare him emperor. There was a moment during a congressional hearing when someone asked Ben Carson whether he had been briefed on what his responsibilities would be under the 25th Amendment, and Carson said something along the lines of “um … no.” |
| God, suddenly I’m imagining Linda McMahon, who’s head of the Small Business Administration, giving her colleagues a pep talk on what she learned when she was running that wrestling league …. | God, suddenly I’m imagining Linda McMahon, who’s head of the Small Business Administration, giving her colleagues a pep talk on what she learned when she was running that wrestling league …. |
| Bret: You’ve put your finger on what disturbs me most. We are counting on Trump’s cabinet to be the adults in the room, the people who set the boss straight and make sure the Twitter side of his brain doesn’t translate into policy or action. But instead of serving as restraints they’ve become enablers, publicly attesting to Trump’s fitness even as they savage him in private as a “dope” or “moron.” | Bret: You’ve put your finger on what disturbs me most. We are counting on Trump’s cabinet to be the adults in the room, the people who set the boss straight and make sure the Twitter side of his brain doesn’t translate into policy or action. But instead of serving as restraints they’ve become enablers, publicly attesting to Trump’s fitness even as they savage him in private as a “dope” or “moron.” |
| Or so we are learning from Michael Wolff’s “Fire and Fury.” I can’t remember when a book has ever had quite such an immediate impact on a presidency as this one. Do you think it will do lasting damage to Trump? Or does he shrug this off just like every other previous bombshell? | Or so we are learning from Michael Wolff’s “Fire and Fury.” I can’t remember when a book has ever had quite such an immediate impact on a presidency as this one. Do you think it will do lasting damage to Trump? Or does he shrug this off just like every other previous bombshell? |
| Gail: He’s pretty much capable of shrugging off anything in a day or two — remember the attention span issue. The question is whether it’s going to mobilize the people who could do something. I’m not seeing Republicans in Congress standing up and saying, “Look, this cannot continue.” I’d like to see good old Lindsey Graham worrying more about this and less about anti-Trump prejudice in the F.B.I. | Gail: He’s pretty much capable of shrugging off anything in a day or two — remember the attention span issue. The question is whether it’s going to mobilize the people who could do something. I’m not seeing Republicans in Congress standing up and saying, “Look, this cannot continue.” I’d like to see good old Lindsey Graham worrying more about this and less about anti-Trump prejudice in the F.B.I. |
| By the way, according to the book, Trump called me a “moron” after I wrote a column asking whether we’d be better off with Mike Pence. | By the way, according to the book, Trump called me a “moron” after I wrote a column asking whether we’d be better off with Mike Pence. |
| Bret: I’m kind of envious of that. He once called me a “killer,” but that was to my face, and I think he was trying to be ingratiating. | Bret: I’m kind of envious of that. He once called me a “killer,” but that was to my face, and I think he was trying to be ingratiating. |
| Gail: It was interesting that a would-Pence-be-better column set him off. What proportion of the Republicans in Congress are having that exact same discussion on a regular basis? | Gail: It was interesting that a would-Pence-be-better column set him off. What proportion of the Republicans in Congress are having that exact same discussion on a regular basis? |
| Bret: I’m not sure how much registers with congressional Republicans these days. They are officially in the business of making excuses and attacking the messenger. By the way, I’m afraid that in the case of Michael Wolff — whose journalistic ethics are, shall we say, of a distinctly creative variety — they’ll have plenty to attack. | Bret: I’m not sure how much registers with congressional Republicans these days. They are officially in the business of making excuses and attacking the messenger. By the way, I’m afraid that in the case of Michael Wolff — whose journalistic ethics are, shall we say, of a distinctly creative variety — they’ll have plenty to attack. |
| Gail: Well, we’re entering a big, big election year. I’m wondering how many Republican candidates are going to stop bragging about tax cuts for long enough to focus on the slightly more critical question of whether we have a mentally unstable person in the White House. What do you think? | Gail: Well, we’re entering a big, big election year. I’m wondering how many Republican candidates are going to stop bragging about tax cuts for long enough to focus on the slightly more critical question of whether we have a mentally unstable person in the White House. What do you think? |
| Bret: Fuhgeddaboudit. The number of Republican candidates who will expressly denounce Trump’s behavior is probably less than zero. The only question is the ardor with which they’ll express their admiration for and fealty to the president. Then again, one consequence of Wolff’s book is that it has pretty much destroyed the political career of one Stephen K. Bannon. That might mean that the G.O.P.’s taste for nominating Roy Moore-like figures may abate, at least for a while. Mitch McConnell must be smiling. | Bret: Fuhgeddaboudit. The number of Republican candidates who will expressly denounce Trump’s behavior is probably less than zero. The only question is the ardor with which they’ll express their admiration for and fealty to the president. Then again, one consequence of Wolff’s book is that it has pretty much destroyed the political career of one Stephen K. Bannon. That might mean that the G.O.P.’s taste for nominating Roy Moore-like figures may abate, at least for a while. Mitch McConnell must be smiling. |
| Gail: Yeah, in fact, tweeting a grin. | Gail: Yeah, in fact, tweeting a grin. |
| Bret: All this being said, I continue to think that Democrats are gulling themselves if they think they can retake one or both houses of Congress merely on the strength of opposition to Trump. Constantly calling the president an idiot is another way of insulting everyone who voted for him and may do more to galvanize them come November than to persuade them to flip their vote. And Democrats will be even less persuasive to voters if the economy continues to perform well, or if middle-class voters see their taxes go down thanks to the tax bill. | Bret: All this being said, I continue to think that Democrats are gulling themselves if they think they can retake one or both houses of Congress merely on the strength of opposition to Trump. Constantly calling the president an idiot is another way of insulting everyone who voted for him and may do more to galvanize them come November than to persuade them to flip their vote. And Democrats will be even less persuasive to voters if the economy continues to perform well, or if middle-class voters see their taxes go down thanks to the tax bill. |
| All of which means that Democrats have to develop a political slogan at least as effective as MAGA. I would humbly suggest MASA: Make America Sane Again. | All of which means that Democrats have to develop a political slogan at least as effective as MAGA. I would humbly suggest MASA: Make America Sane Again. |
| Gail: I can imagine Chuck Schumer having a flag made. But let me ask you a question about the economy. It’s been doing very well ever since — ahem — Barack Obama resurrected it. It’s been a good ride but people are beginning to question how long it’ll last. I’m worried that any artificial heft the economy got from the tax cuts could just hasten the popping of our current balloon. Or, at minimum, make it harder for the government to deal with a recession crisis since there’s less revenue coming in, even from the folks who can afford to send it. | Gail: I can imagine Chuck Schumer having a flag made. But let me ask you a question about the economy. It’s been doing very well ever since — ahem — Barack Obama resurrected it. It’s been a good ride but people are beginning to question how long it’ll last. I’m worried that any artificial heft the economy got from the tax cuts could just hasten the popping of our current balloon. Or, at minimum, make it harder for the government to deal with a recession crisis since there’s less revenue coming in, even from the folks who can afford to send it. |
| Bret: Morgan Stanley’s Ruchir Sharma had an excellent Op-Ed essay in The Times the other day on the subject of economic forecasting. As he tells it, economic forecasters “have not predicted a single United States recession since the Federal Reserve began keeping such records a half-century ago, and missed many revivals,” including the worldwide resurgence in 2017. Which is only to say that the answer to your question about how long the recovery will last is, ¿Quién sabe? | Bret: Morgan Stanley’s Ruchir Sharma had an excellent Op-Ed essay in The Times the other day on the subject of economic forecasting. As he tells it, economic forecasters “have not predicted a single United States recession since the Federal Reserve began keeping such records a half-century ago, and missed many revivals,” including the worldwide resurgence in 2017. Which is only to say that the answer to your question about how long the recovery will last is, ¿Quién sabe? |
| Gail: Bret, if we only conversed about things we had solid information about, we would have to spend all our time discussing yesterday’s weather. Come on, take a jump. | Gail: Bret, if we only conversed about things we had solid information about, we would have to spend all our time discussing yesterday’s weather. Come on, take a jump. |
| Bret: Let’s say the recovery has some legs in it. For starters, it’s coming on the heels of seven years of extremely sluggish growth, so the 3 percent growth figures we are seeing now are really a return to normal growth, not a sign of overheating. Also, the recovery is a global phenomenon, reaching from Japan to Europe. And continued growth likely means gradually higher interest rates, which would give the Fed some running room in the event of a recession or a crash. | Bret: Let’s say the recovery has some legs in it. For starters, it’s coming on the heels of seven years of extremely sluggish growth, so the 3 percent growth figures we are seeing now are really a return to normal growth, not a sign of overheating. Also, the recovery is a global phenomenon, reaching from Japan to Europe. And continued growth likely means gradually higher interest rates, which would give the Fed some running room in the event of a recession or a crash. |
| All of which makes me an economic optimist on balance. I think what we really have to worry about is somebody or other banging on that nuclear button. That, and, well, the degradation of our political culture as we begin to accept Trumpian behavior as the new normal. | All of which makes me an economic optimist on balance. I think what we really have to worry about is somebody or other banging on that nuclear button. That, and, well, the degradation of our political culture as we begin to accept Trumpian behavior as the new normal. |
| Gail: So to summarize our start of the new year, you are worried about the planet blowing up and the nation’s political leadership becoming permanently attached to psycho-tweeting. While I am worried about those two things plus an economic nose-dive, I think our national prospects might improve a tiny bit if the Democrats win the House or Senate or both in November. But you think there’s no hope whatsoever for change as long as he who must not be named is still commander in chief. | Gail: So to summarize our start of the new year, you are worried about the planet blowing up and the nation’s political leadership becoming permanently attached to psycho-tweeting. While I am worried about those two things plus an economic nose-dive, I think our national prospects might improve a tiny bit if the Democrats win the House or Senate or both in November. But you think there’s no hope whatsoever for change as long as he who must not be named is still commander in chief. |
| Bret: I was touched and impressed by Nick Kristof’s column on Sunday, which pointed out all the things that are going right in this world: ever fewer people living in extreme poverty, ever more people becoming literate and gaining access to electricity and clean water, and so on. It put some of our current political fixations into perspective. | Bret: I was touched and impressed by Nick Kristof’s column on Sunday, which pointed out all the things that are going right in this world: ever fewer people living in extreme poverty, ever more people becoming literate and gaining access to electricity and clean water, and so on. It put some of our current political fixations into perspective. |
| Then again, we’d be out of luck and probably out of work as columnists if all we had was good news and progress. So, in that spirit, thank you, President Trump! You’re doing wonders for our business. Please keep the tweets, threats and general insanity coming in ’18. | Then again, we’d be out of luck and probably out of work as columnists if all we had was good news and progress. So, in that spirit, thank you, President Trump! You’re doing wonders for our business. Please keep the tweets, threats and general insanity coming in ’18. |
| Gail: On the other hand, how’s the family? | Gail: On the other hand, how’s the family? |
| Bret: Wonderful, thanks. We’ve been watching your New York snowmageddon from comparatively balmy Germany. Also, you can drive as fast as you want on the autobahn. Ain’t nothing like living in a free country. | Bret: Wonderful, thanks. We’ve been watching your New York snowmageddon from comparatively balmy Germany. Also, you can drive as fast as you want on the autobahn. Ain’t nothing like living in a free country. |