A Counterproductive Approach to a Broken Immigration System

https://www.nytimes.com/2018/01/08/opinion/el-salvador-tps-deportation.html

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The decision by the Department of Homeland Security not to renew Temporary Protected Status, for almost 200,000 migrants from El Salvador is President Trump’s latest attempt to restrict both legal and illegal immigration. This comes on the heels of the same rulings last year regarding Haitians and Nicaraguans. Salvadorans, however, are by far the largest group of T.P.S. recipients — approximately two-thirds of the remaining beneficiaries.

Just like the decision to end the DACA program for nearly 800,000 undocumented childhood arrivals, the T.P.S. announcement is politically motivated and is probably an attempt to satisfy President Trump’s anti-immigrant base. Although the choice to end a supposedly temporary program that has nonetheless lasted for 17 years may sound rational, the real-world consequences of such a wide-reaching move will be immediate and severe — and may even contribute to a new cycle of illegal immigration.

Many, if not most, are unlikely to voluntarily return to a country that they no longer call home and instead may seek to stay illegally. The widespread fear instilled by this ruling, and the possible deportations to come, will tear apart families and communities. In effect, as of September 2019 there will be a group of newly unauthorized migrants living in the United States equivalent to the population of Salt Lake City. After almost two decades in the United States, Salvadoran T.P.S. recipients have built lives, communities and businesses. In many cities — above all Washington and Los Angeles — they are an important part of the economic and social fabric. They are parents to approximately 192,700 United States-born citizens.

Ironically, if T.P.S. recipients are deported, a primary beneficiary will be one of President Trump’s most-stated enemies: the MS-13 gang, which he has accused of turning United States communities “into bloodstained killing fields.” The criminal organization, which is active in both the United States and El Salvador, traces its roots to instability after a wave of deportations from the United States in the 1990s, which El Salvador was ill equipped to receive. It didn’t take long for the resulting instability to bounce back to the United States in the form of increased criminal activity and illegal immigration.

A similar pattern could repeat itself, as conditions are only marginally better today. The Salvadoran government is already strained in its battle against corruption, crime and violence — including one of the world’s highest homicide rates. MS-13 is almost certain to take advantage of the impending disruption as deportees arrive in El Salvador. Worse, young American citizens of Salvadoran origin will be left behind if their parents are expelled, making them more vulnerable to recruitment by criminal groups.

This decision also has distinctly negative implications for El Salvador’s already sclerotic economy. According to the Inter-American Dialogue’s research, remittances account for 17 percent of the country’s gross domestic product and a staggering 80 percent of economic growth. Last year, T.P.S. recipients alone sent over $500 million back to El Salvador. While the Trump administration may be tempted to see this as a benefit — preventing money from leaving the country — a sharp reduction in remittances would cripple longer-term United States efforts to build security and prosperity in El Salvador, investing more than $4.4 billion over the past 50 years. An economic downturn will only encourage a new exodus, fueling the cycle of instability and illegal immigration.

To be sure, as President Trump has noted, responsibility for the problems with the current situation lies with the T.P.S. program itself. The administration is correct that the designation was intended to be temporary relief after a pair of earthquakes in 2001. In practice, however, past presidents routinely extended the program in part because of longstanding political, economic and security conditions in the country — which would only be made worse by ending the protection. Extending T.P.S. was a way to kick the can down the road and avoid facing real policy choices. Consequently, program recipients became more integrated into United States society every year, progressively raising the human costs of termination.

Already there has been pushback on the decision from Democratic-leaning cities, states, members of Congress and other critics hoping for a legislative solution — which is highly unlikely. Even so, in the future Congress should aim to blunt the negative effects of this decision and create a new, more permanent designation for certain migrants from Central America and the Caribbean. Temporary protection is an essential tool to respond to short-term crises and disasters, but in this case — as in Haiti and Honduras — T.P.S. has not been sufficiently adaptive toward longer-term state weakness.

The Trump administration’s decision to pull the plug only creates more uncertainty and chaos. In doing so, the president has further eroded the United States’ standing in Latin America and sowed bad will in significant communities that have contributed so much to this country and clearly embrace its values.