This article is from the source 'guardian' and was first published or seen on . It last changed over 40 days ago and won't be checked again for changes.
You can find the current article at its original source at https://www.theguardian.com/business/live/2018/jan/05/uk-car-sales-brexit-us-unemployment-stock-markets-business-live
The article has changed 18 times. There is an RSS feed of changes available.
| Version 11 | Version 12 |
|---|---|
| Wall Street hits fresh record high after disappointing US jobs report - business live | Wall Street hits fresh record high after disappointing US jobs report - business live |
| (35 minutes later) | |
| MSNBC’s Steve Benen have calculated that US job creation slowed last year - the first 12 months of Donald Trump’s presidency. | |
| Benen writes: | |
| Now that we have data for all of the previous calendar year, we can note that the U.S. added 1.84 million jobs in 2011, 2.19 million jobs in 2012, 2.33 million in 2013, 3.11 million in 2014, 2.74 million in 2015, 2.24 million in 2016, and 2.05 million in 2017. | |
| Or put another way, while Donald Trump’s first year as president has been pretty good overall for job creation, Americans nevertheless saw the slowest job growth in six years. | |
| Job growth wasn't bad in Trump's 1st year in office, but it did slow to a six-year low. Job totals by year:2011: 1.84m2012: 2.19m2013: 2.33m2014: 3.11m2015: 2.74m2016: 2.24m2017: 2.05mhttps://t.co/E8dQJwfiRi | |
| Newsflash: US factory orders rose by 1.3% in November, beating the consensus forecast of 1.1% growth. | |
| That’s up from 0.4% in October, and the fourth monthly rise in a row. American factories reported rising demand for transportation and electrical equipment. | |
| However.... the latest survey of America’s services sector is less impressive. Growth slowed to a four-month low in December, according to ISM’s non-manufacturing index which has dipped to 55.9 from 57.6. | |
| *U.S. ISM NON-MANUFACTURING INDEX DROPS TO A FOUR-MONTH LOW | |
| Boom! The US stock market has hit fresh record highs (yet again) at the start of trading in New York. | Boom! The US stock market has hit fresh record highs (yet again) at the start of trading in New York. |
| Traders are shrugging off the news that America’s job creation slowed last month. | Traders are shrugging off the news that America’s job creation slowed last month. |
| The Dow Jones continued its march upwards, gaining 70 points to 25,145. The S&P 500 and the Nasdaq are also pushing higher, as the bull market shows no inclination to fizzle out. | The Dow Jones continued its march upwards, gaining 70 points to 25,145. The S&P 500 and the Nasdaq are also pushing higher, as the bull market shows no inclination to fizzle out. |
| But while shares rise, the US dollar has dropped. | But while shares rise, the US dollar has dropped. |
| Jacob Deppe, Head of Trading at online trading platform, Infinox, explains: | Jacob Deppe, Head of Trading at online trading platform, Infinox, explains: |
| “Surprisingly, Wall Street shook off the lower than expected jobs data and rose still higher, although the Dollar fell 0.3% versus the Euro and 0.26% versus the Pound on the news. | “Surprisingly, Wall Street shook off the lower than expected jobs data and rose still higher, although the Dollar fell 0.3% versus the Euro and 0.26% versus the Pound on the news. |
| “December’s Non-Farm Payrolls data does not fit the current narrative of booming US growth. The initial reaction from the market is to ignore. That could be perilous. | “December’s Non-Farm Payrolls data does not fit the current narrative of booming US growth. The initial reaction from the market is to ignore. That could be perilous. |
| “It’s also possible markets have decided the recent harsh weather contributed to the slowdown in jobs | “It’s also possible markets have decided the recent harsh weather contributed to the slowdown in jobs |
| The good news is that America’s economy has now created jobs for 87 months in a row - dating back to early in Barack Obama’s first term as president. | The good news is that America’s economy has now created jobs for 87 months in a row - dating back to early in Barack Obama’s first term as president. |
| That has helped to pull the jobless rate down to its lowest since the end of 2000, at just 4.1%. | That has helped to pull the jobless rate down to its lowest since the end of 2000, at just 4.1%. |
| Bart Hordijk, Market Analyst at Monex Europe, says the US may be approaching full employment: | Bart Hordijk, Market Analyst at Monex Europe, says the US may be approaching full employment: |
| “2017 has been an extraordinary year for the US labour market, with around 200K jobs added every month, leading the Unemployment Rate to its lowest point in 16 years. The fact that we now see a slowdown can be more of a sign of employers not being able to find qualified personnel, than it is an indicator of weakness in the US economy. | “2017 has been an extraordinary year for the US labour market, with around 200K jobs added every month, leading the Unemployment Rate to its lowest point in 16 years. The fact that we now see a slowdown can be more of a sign of employers not being able to find qualified personnel, than it is an indicator of weakness in the US economy. |
| Despite the fact that the Hourly Earnings Growth remains soft, this can report can still be a nudge for the Federal Reserve in the direction of hiking the rates. | Despite the fact that the Hourly Earnings Growth remains soft, this can report can still be a nudge for the Federal Reserve in the direction of hiking the rates. |
| The 148,000 increase in the US non-farm payroll last month was “slightly disappointing’, says Paul Ashworth of Capital Economics. | The 148,000 increase in the US non-farm payroll last month was “slightly disappointing’, says Paul Ashworth of Capital Economics. |
| He also singles out the drop in retail employment: | He also singles out the drop in retail employment: |
| Looking at the December gain in detail, manufacturing had a strong month, adding 25,000 jobs. Given the strength of the global economy, the decline in the dollar and the recent strength evident in the surveys, we can expect further factory job gains in the next few months. | Looking at the December gain in detail, manufacturing had a strong month, adding 25,000 jobs. Given the strength of the global economy, the decline in the dollar and the recent strength evident in the surveys, we can expect further factory job gains in the next few months. |
| The obvious weakness was in retail, which shed 20,300 jobs. That could be just noise or a consequence of the shift from bricks and mortar stores to online. As a comparison, couriers & messengers added only 2,100 jobs, so in net terms the structural shift is hardly positive for employmen | The obvious weakness was in retail, which shed 20,300 jobs. That could be just noise or a consequence of the shift from bricks and mortar stores to online. As a comparison, couriers & messengers added only 2,100 jobs, so in net terms the structural shift is hardly positive for employmen |
| Kully Samra, UK Managing Director at Charles Schwab, says: | Kully Samra, UK Managing Director at Charles Schwab, says: |
| “The US economy ended on a mixed note in 2017. | “The US economy ended on a mixed note in 2017. |
| However, despite disappointing job numbers, over the year average hourly earnings have risen by 2.5%. In addition, we have seen the economy grow quarter on quarter, manufacturing and services indices rise and other factors such as business confidence and housing are also picking up. | However, despite disappointing job numbers, over the year average hourly earnings have risen by 2.5%. In addition, we have seen the economy grow quarter on quarter, manufacturing and services indices rise and other factors such as business confidence and housing are also picking up. |
| Here’s Ian Kernohan, economist at Royal London Asset Management, on today’s Non-Farm Payroll: | Here’s Ian Kernohan, economist at Royal London Asset Management, on today’s Non-Farm Payroll: |
| “There was something for everyone in the latest US Labour Market Report. On the one hand, employment growth slipped below 200,000 after a couple of strong months, while on the other, the headline rate of unemployment remained very low at just 4.1%, on an unchanged participation rate. Wage growth ticked higher to 2.5%, still a very modest rate despite the sharp fall in unemployment over the past few years. | “There was something for everyone in the latest US Labour Market Report. On the one hand, employment growth slipped below 200,000 after a couple of strong months, while on the other, the headline rate of unemployment remained very low at just 4.1%, on an unchanged participation rate. Wage growth ticked higher to 2.5%, still a very modest rate despite the sharp fall in unemployment over the past few years. |
| “The Federal Reserve puts much more weight on labour market data than on any other information, including the volatile and often misleading early estimates for GDP. Most survey based indicators of economic growth are strong in the US, and while the current severe weather is bound to impact economic activity in Q1, the Fed tend to look through these events, and are still on track to raise interest rates once again in March.” | “The Federal Reserve puts much more weight on labour market data than on any other information, including the volatile and often misleading early estimates for GDP. Most survey based indicators of economic growth are strong in the US, and while the current severe weather is bound to impact economic activity in Q1, the Fed tend to look through these events, and are still on track to raise interest rates once again in March.” |
| Jobs site Indeed.com have made a handy charts showing where jobs were created, or destroyed, last month across the US economy: | Jobs site Indeed.com have made a handy charts showing where jobs were created, or destroyed, last month across the US economy: |
| Construction and information led job growth in December, with manufacturing picking up steam. Retail lost jobs -- again. pic.twitter.com/VcicEJOYZb | Construction and information led job growth in December, with manufacturing picking up steam. Retail lost jobs -- again. pic.twitter.com/VcicEJOYZb |
| Ben Casselman of the New York Times is also worried by the fall in retail jobs | Ben Casselman of the New York Times is also worried by the fall in retail jobs |
| Weird few months for retail. But the big picture is clear: big job losses in a huge sector for (mostly low-wage) employment. pic.twitter.com/XQJNCwBrKE | Weird few months for retail. But the big picture is clear: big job losses in a huge sector for (mostly low-wage) employment. pic.twitter.com/XQJNCwBrKE |
| Seth Harris, who was deputy US labor secretary under president Obama, is concerned by the rise in under-employment (the U-6 rate). | Seth Harris, who was deputy US labor secretary under president Obama, is concerned by the rise in under-employment (the U-6 rate). |
| He tweets: | He tweets: |
| #Jobs report toplines: 1. Fewer jobs in Dec. means little. 2. 2d month U-6 increased; growth in involuntary part-time concerning 3. #Wages=disappointing 2.5% nominal increase/year, meager 0.3% real increase 4. Middle-wage industries growing (mfring, constr'n); retail shrinking. | #Jobs report toplines: 1. Fewer jobs in Dec. means little. 2. 2d month U-6 increased; growth in involuntary part-time concerning 3. #Wages=disappointing 2.5% nominal increase/year, meager 0.3% real increase 4. Middle-wage industries growing (mfring, constr'n); retail shrinking. |
| Yikes! America’s retail sector cut around 20,000 jobs last month, according to today’s non-farm payroll. | Yikes! America’s retail sector cut around 20,000 jobs last month, according to today’s non-farm payroll. |
| That could be proof that the rise of internet shopping is forcing Main Street stores to cut back. | That could be proof that the rise of internet shopping is forcing Main Street stores to cut back. |
| The Amazon effect? Retail jobs down 20K in December and 67K for the full year. | The Amazon effect? Retail jobs down 20K in December and 67K for the full year. |
| The retail apocalypse carries on. It dropped 20k jobs in December, adding up to 67,000 total jobs lost in 2017. It added 203k jobs in 2016. | The retail apocalypse carries on. It dropped 20k jobs in December, adding up to 67,000 total jobs lost in 2017. It added 203k jobs in 2016. |
| The NFP report also shows a 55,000 increase in goods-producing jobs, a 30,000 increase in construction, and a 91,000 increase in service-sector roles. | The NFP report also shows a 55,000 increase in goods-producing jobs, a 30,000 increase in construction, and a 91,000 increase in service-sector roles. |
| Worryingly, the US under-employment rate rose to 8.1% in December, from 8.0% in October. | Worryingly, the US under-employment rate rose to 8.1% in December, from 8.0% in October. |
| That means more Americans wanted to work more hours than they were able. | That means more Americans wanted to work more hours than they were able. |
| In better news, November’s non-farm payroll has been revised up to show 252,000 new jobs were created (up from 228,000). | In better news, November’s non-farm payroll has been revised up to show 252,000 new jobs were created (up from 228,000). |
| But what the revisions give with one hand, they take with the other. October’s NFP has been revised down to 211,000, from 244,000. | But what the revisions give with one hand, they take with the other. October’s NFP has been revised down to 211,000, from 244,000. |