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Case of Missing Lebanese Prime Minister Stirs Tensions in the Middle East Case of Missing Lebanese Prime Minister Stirs Middle East Tensions
(about 4 hours later)
BEIRUT, Lebanon — A week after the Lebanese prime minister, Saad Hariri, flew to Saudi Arabia and announced his resignation, what seemed at first like a bizarre domestic political dispute is escalating tensions in the Middle East and threatening to become a flash point in the struggle for power there. BEIRUT, Lebanon — When the Lebanese prime minister Saad Hariri made a sudden trip abroad last week, it was taken at first to be a routine visit with his political patron, Saudi Arabia. But the next day, he unexpectedly announced his resignation by video from Riyadh, the Saudi capital.
On Friday, Mr. Hariri remained stranded in Saudi Arabia. The Iranian-backed militia Hezbollah said the Saudis were holding him against his will, while the Saudis have said there was a plot to assassinate him. He has yet to return to Lebanon.
Fractious Lebanese politics and interference in them by Saudi Arabia, Iran and a host of other powers are nothing new, but the Hariri case has become part of a high-stakes buildup of tension that is fueling anxiety about whether the region is on the verge of war. On Friday, the Iranian-backed militia Hezbollah, part of his governing coalition at home, charged that the Saudis were holding him against his will, while the Saudis have said they were protecting him from an unspecified assassination plot.
The United States on Friday urged calm, with Secretary of State Rex W. Tillerson warning “against any party, within or outside Lebanon, using Lebanon as a venue for proxy conflicts or in any manner contributing to instability in that country,” a message apparently aimed at Hezbollah as well as Saudi Arabia. Now the Hariri case has become just one in a profusion of bewildering events that are escalating tensions in the Middle East and fueling anxiety about whether the region is on the verge of war.
As events in the region have unfolded over the past week, each more surprising and bewildering than the last, world leaders, analysts and diplomats have scrambled to figure out what is behind them and whether they are all connected, and even, as some analysts fear, whether they are part of a broader plot to spark a war between Israel and Hezbollah that would risk a wider conflagration. Even before the events of the past week, analysts and officials in the region had been increasingly anxious about what they see as a volatile combination: an impulsive, youthful Saudi leader escalating threats to roll back growing Iranian influence, an equally impulsive Trump administration signaling broad agreement with Saudi policies, and increasingly pointed warnings from Israel that it may eventually fight another war with Hezbollah.
First, a week ago, Mr. Hariri unexpectedly flew to Riyadh, the Saudi capital, without any of his close advisers. A day later, he announced his resignation on Saudi television, something he had shown no signs of planning to do. Now analysts and diplomats are scrambling to figure out what the latest developments mean, whether they are connected and whether, as some analysts fear, they are part of a buildup to a regional war.
Mr. Hariri, until he announced his resignation on Saturday, had shown no signs of planning to do so.
Hours later, on Saturday evening, a missile fired from Yemen came close to Riyadh before being shot down. Saudi Arabia later blamed Iran and Hezbollah for the missile, suggesting that they had aided the Iran-aligned Houthi rebels in Yemen to fire it.Hours later, on Saturday evening, a missile fired from Yemen came close to Riyadh before being shot down. Saudi Arabia later blamed Iran and Hezbollah for the missile, suggesting that they had aided the Iran-aligned Houthi rebels in Yemen to fire it.
Before the world had a chance to absorb this news, the ambitious and aggressive Saudi Arabian crown prince, Mohammed bin Salman, ordered the arrest of hundreds of Saudis, including members of the royal family, in what is either a crackdown on corruption, as Saudi officials put it, or a political purge, as outside analysts have suggested. Before the world had a chance to absorb this news, the ambitious and aggressive Saudi Arabian crown prince, Mohammed bin Salman, ordered the arrest of hundreds of Saudis, including members of the royal family, in what was either a crackdown on corruption, as Saudi officials put it, or a purge, as outside analysts have suggested.
It then emerged that the week before, Jared Kushner, President Trump’s son-in-law and adviser, who has been sent on missions both to Israel and Saudi Arabia, had visited Riyadh on a previously undisclosed trip and met until the early morning hours with the crown prince. It then emerged that the week before, Jared Kushner, President Trump’s son-in-law and adviser, who has been sent on missions both to Israel and Saudi Arabia, had visited Riyadh on a previously undisclosed trip and met until the early morning hours with the crown prince. The White House has not announced what they discussed but officials privately said that they were meeting about the administration’s efforts to forge an Israeli-Palestinian peace deal.
Even before these events unfolded, analysts and officials in Lebanon and around the region had been increasingly anxious about a volatile combination: an impulsive, youthful Saudi leader escalating threats to roll back growing Iranian influence, an equally impulsive Trump administration signaling broad agreement with Saudi policies, and increasingly pointed warnings from Israel that it may eventually fight another war with Hezbollah. No one expects Saudi Arabia, which is mired in a military conflict in Yemen, to start another war itself. On Friday, Hezbollah’s leader, Hassan Nasrallah, said that Saudi Arabia had asked Israel to attack Lebanon, after essentially kidnapping Mr. Hariri.
Some Israeli officials have said over the past year, both publicly and in meetings in Washington, that Hezbollah had grown too powerful, that it was time to strike a decisive blow against it, and that they were preparing for war — even as others insisted the country did not want a conflict now.
On Friday afternoon, Hezbollah’s leader, Hassan Nasrallah, declared in a televised speech that Saudi Arabia had asked Israel to attack Lebanon, after essentially kidnapping Mr. Hariri, who had been part of a unity government that included Hezbollah.
“I’m not talking here about analysis, but information,” he said. “The Saudis asked Israel to attack Lebanon.”“I’m not talking here about analysis, but information,” he said. “The Saudis asked Israel to attack Lebanon.”
He provided no evidence of his claim, but Western and regional analysts have also said that, given all the confusing and unexpected events and unpredictable players, they could not entirely rule out such a scenario.He provided no evidence of his claim, but Western and regional analysts have also said that, given all the confusing and unexpected events and unpredictable players, they could not entirely rule out such a scenario.
There have long been fears that now that the Syrian war — in which Hezbollah played a decisive role, gaining new influence, power and weapons — is almost over, Hezbollah’s enemies might seek to cut it down to size, and that an empowered Hezbollah would push back hard. Israeli officials, however, have been publicly predicting another war with Hezbollah, an increasingly well armed antagonist, while also vowing to do all they can to postpone it.
Addressing Saudi Arabia, Mr. Nasrallah said, “Don’t set a goal of destroying Hezbollah because you can’t.” But if Saudi Arabia’s goal was to force Hezbollah to leave Syria, he said: “No problem. Our goal there has been achieved. It’s almost over anyway.” “There are now those in the region who would like Israel to go to war with Hezbollah and fight a Saudi war to the last Israeli,” said Ofer Zalzberg, a Jerusalem-based analyst for International Crisis Group. “There is no interest in that here.”
Also on Friday, President Emmanuel Macron of France left Saudi Arabia after a brief, last-minute meeting with the crown prince. Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has long considered Iran to be Israel’s foremost enemy, a potential nuclear threat as well as a strategic adversary seeking to convert postwar Syria into a staging ground for attacks against Israel or into a corridor to transfer missiles and other weapons to Hezbollah in Lebanon.
During the unexpected two-hour visit on Thursday, tacked on to a trip to Abu Dhabi to open a new branch of the Louvre museum there, Mr. Macron “reiterated the importance France attaches to Lebanon’s stability, security, sovereignty and integrity,” the French president’s office said. He also discussed “the situation in Lebanon following the resignation of Prime Minister Hariri,” his office said, but provided no further details. So Saudi Arabia’s stepped-up efforts to oppose Iranian influence in Lebanon drew measured applause in Jerusalem. But many Israelis fear that the aggressive actions by the Saudi crown prince could drag Israel into a war that it does not want.
Daniel Shapiro, a former United States ambassador to Israel, said that Israel and Saudi Arabia were pursuing similar goals at sharply different speeds and levels of proficiency.
“I’m not sure they’re aligned tactically,” he said in an interview. Prince Mohammed, he added, “seems very impatient to actually spark the confrontation.”
There are no signs of war preparations in Israel. The country is not mobilizing troops on its northern border or calling up reservists, and Mr. Netanyahu has given no indication that he sees a conflict as imminent.
Moreover, Israel’s war planners predict that the next war with Hezbollah may be catastrophic, particularly if it lasts more than a few days. Hezbollah now has more than 120,000 rockets and missiles, Israel estimates, enough to overwhelm Israeli missile defenses.
Many of them are long-range and accurate enough to bring down Tel Aviv high-rises, sink offshore gas platforms, knock out Ben-Gurion Airport or level landmark buildings across Israel.
Nor is Hezbollah necessarily hankering for battle with Israel, according to analysts who study the militant group closely. It is still fighting in Syria, where it has been backing the government of President Bashar al-Assad, and it is being drained by medical costs for wounded fighters and survivor benefits for the families of those killed, said Giora Eiland, a retired Israeli major general and former head of the country’s National Security Council.
“Hezbollah as an organization is in a very deep economic crisis today,” Mr. Eiland said. “But at the same time, the weaker they are, the more dependent they are on Iranian assistance — so they might have to comply with Iran’s instructions.”
But there have long been fears that now that the Syrian war — in which Hezbollah played a decisive role, gaining new influence, power and weapons — is almost over, Hezbollah’s enemies might seek to cut it down to size.
Mr. Nasrallah, the Hezbollah leader, implied Friday that its fight in Syria was nearly finished. If Saudi Arabia’s goal was to force Hezbollah to leave Syria, he said: “No problem. Our goal there has been achieved. It’s almost over anyway.”
World leaders have sought to tamp down tensions.
The American secretary of state Rex W. Tillerson warned Friday “against any party, within or outside Lebanon, using Lebanon as a venue for proxy conflicts or in any manner contributing to instability in that country,” a message apparently aimed at Hezbollah as well as Saudi Arabia.
President Emmanuel Macron of France left Saudi Arabia on Friday after a brief, last-minute meeting with the crown prince.
During the unexpected two-hour visit on Thursday, Mr. Macron “reiterated the importance France attaches to Lebanon’s stability, security, sovereignty and integrity,” his office said. He also discussed “the situation in Lebanon following the resignation of Prime Minister Hariri,” his office said, but provided no further details.
A group of countries and organizations interested in Lebanon’s stability met Friday with the Lebanese president, Michel Aoun, and issued a statement expressing “concern regarding the situation and prevailing uncertainty in Lebanon” and calling for Lebanon to be “shielded from tensions in the region.”
The members of the group, the International Support Group for Lebanon — including the United Nations, Britain, China, France, Germany, Italy, Russia and the United States, as well as the European Union and the Arab League — are not all on the same side of the issues at stake so the statement seemed to reflect broad international concern.
At a news conference in Dubai, the United Arab Emirates, before the meeting, Mr. Macron said he did not share Saudi Arabia’s “very harsh opinions” of Iran.At a news conference in Dubai, the United Arab Emirates, before the meeting, Mr. Macron said he did not share Saudi Arabia’s “very harsh opinions” of Iran.
“It is important to speak with everyone,” Mr. Macron said. Analysts say a new war in the region is unlikely but some have warned that the increased tensions could provoke an economic crisis or even start a war accidentally. Miscalculations have started wars before, as in the 2006 war between Israel and Hezbollah.
France has longstanding interests in Lebanon, a former colony, and Mr. Macron was invited to Saudi Arabia by Prince Mohammed. Experts caution that Israel is often only a mistake or two from being drawn into combat.
A new war is unlikely, analysts said. Saudi Arabia, which is mired in a military conflict in Yemen, is seen as lacking the capacity to start another, while Israel, which has talked about reducing the new influence of Hezbollah in Lebanon and the region, has said it does not want a war now. “It’s a dangerous situation now,” said Amos Harel, the military reporter for Haaretz, the Israeli newspaper. “It only takes one provocation, another reaction, and it can get all of a sudden completely out of control. And when you add the Saudis, who evidently want to attack Iran and are looking for action, it gets even more complicated.”
But some have warned that the increased tensions could provoke an economic crisis or even war accidentally. Miscalculations have started wars before, as in the 2006 war between Israel and the Lebanese Shiite militant group Hezbollah.
In Lebanon, concerns have mounted that Mr. Hariri may, in effect, be a hostage of the Saudi government.
President Michel Aoun of Lebanon told the Saudi chargé d’affaires in Beirut, Walid Bukhari, that the manner of Mr. Hariri’s resignation was “unacceptable,” and a consortium of countries and organizations interested in Lebanon’s stability said they had met on Friday with Mr. Aoun, who called for Mr. Hariri’s return.
Mr. Hariri said in his resignation speech that he was quitting because of what he said was Iran’s disproportionate influence in Lebanon through its ally, Hezbollah, which is part of the unity government he headed. But he had shown no signs of planning to resign before his sudden trip to Riyadh, and so far the political fallout has harmed him and his party more than Hezbollah.
The consortium, the International Support Group for Lebanon, issued a statement expressing “concern regarding the situation and prevailing uncertainty in Lebanon” and calling for Lebanon to be “shielded from tensions in the region.”
The group’s members — including the United Nations, Britain, China, France, Germany, Italy, Russia and the United States, as well as the European Union and the Arab League — are not all on the same side of some issues in the region, so the statement seemed to reflect a high level of concern about tensions.
Mr. Hariri, a dual citizen of Lebanon and Saudi Arabia, met the ambassadors of Britain and the European Union and the chargé d’affaires of the American Embassy on Wednesday and Thursday at his Riyadh residence.
Other Western diplomats, speaking on the condition of anonymity, said those envoys, too, had the impression that Mr. Hariri could not speak freely. Saudi Arabia, which ordered its citizens on Thursday to leave Lebanon, has denied he is being held against his will.