Berlusconi on the Horizon Again in Italy

https://www.nytimes.com/2017/11/08/opinion/silvio-berlusconi-sicily.html

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It is a sign of how deeply the 42-year-old former Prime Minister Matteo Renzi foundered in his bid to infuse fresh life into Italian politics that the 81-year-old, scandal-plagued, four-time former Prime Minister Silvio Berlusconi looks on track to succeed him as Italy’s political comeback kid. Nello Musumeci, the candidate representing a coalition of parties cobbled together by Mr. Berlusconi, won the most votes on Sunday in regional elections in Sicily, considered a bellwether for national elections. Italian voters head to the polls next spring to elect a new national government, but if Sicily is a preview of Italian politics to come, then Italy and the European Union are in for a rough ride.

Giancarlo Cancelleri, the populist Five Star Movement candidate, won 35 percent of the vote on Sunday, the most for any single party. But Mr. Musumeci beat him with 39 percent of the vote. A new electoral law, approved by Italy’s Parliament last month, benefits parties that form pre-election coalitions, which the Five Star Movement has ruled out. But cobbling together coalitions to win elections is not the same thing as delivering stable governance. Despite the coalition’s backing, Mr. Musumeci failed to secure an outright majority, and if his coalition fails to pull in more political allies to secure one, Sicily will face a hung government.

That is a fate economically struggling Italy, on the front lines of Europe’s migrant crisis, can ill afford next spring. And it would make it harder for President Emmanuel Macron of France and Chancellor Angela Merkel of Germany, whose hand is weakened following German election results in September, to hold together an already shaky union.

With the center-left badly beaten, Mr. Berlusconi was quick to claim a “victory for moderate” voters against Five Star populists. But his coalition includes the anti-immigrant Northern League party and the right-wing Brothers of Italy party. In addition, Mr. Berlusconi — who is barred from holding office because of a 2013 fraud conviction — has made it clear that he is the real power behind the coalition.

Without effective political leadership, more Italians will opt out of the political process, either by staying away from the polls — as did most eligible voters in Sicily — or by embracing populist promises of radical change. But effective politicians have been in short supply.