The Saudi Roundup at the Ritz

https://www.nytimes.com/2017/11/08/opinion/saudi-arabia-crown-prince-arrests-iran.html

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Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman’s wholesale arrests in Saudi Arabia have been seen as fundamentally a power play to cement his internal control over the kingdom. But his aggressive moves to reshape both his country and the Middle East are likely to have wider consequences, further destabilizing a region already in turmoil while increasing the chances of a Saudi war with Iran. At this moment, when the United States, the kingdom’s trusted ally, should be counseling restraint, President Trump unwisely keeps giving the impetuous crown prince a green light.

Prince Mohammed, 32 and inexperienced, has been shaking up the conservative kingdom ever since his father, King Salman, installed him as first in the line of succession and made him defense minister in 2015. Some of his reforms are admirable, necessary, long overdue and overwhelmingly popular with millions of younger Saudis. He has allowed women to drive and to run for municipal office, and reined in hard-line clerics. But the pace of change and the methods he has chosen to achieve it, as well as his belligerent approach toward Iran, have raised questions about his judgment.

That was certainly true on Sunday when he shattered the consensus-driven, 70-year-old governing structure by arresting as many as 500 people, who are being detained at the Ritz-Carlton hotel in Riyadh, including at least 11 princes; the head of the most important military branch, the National Guard; and Prince Alwaleed bin Talal, one of the world’s richest men, who has been a major shareholder in Citigroup, Apple and Twitter.

The arrests were presented as a crackdown on corruption. Some of those detained are expected to face undisclosed criminal charges, and others may be pressured to testify about their roles in corruption schemes. Corruption and entrenched interests are serious problems in Saudi Arabia, and the crackdown is expected to be welcomed by the citizenry. Even so, the kingdom does not have a credible or transparent justice system, and it is far from certain that those arrested will be treated fairly.

The roundup has rattled the markets and could undermine the crown prince’s signature project, known as Saudi Vision 2030, to catapult the country into the modern age with an economic agenda that would invite foreign investment and reduce the kingdom’s dependence on oil by selling off shares of Aramco, the Saudi oil giant. Though powerful Saudi interest groups appear to have acquiesced in the moves, some international investors fear a period of internal dissension that could mean the project’s collapse; indeed, Western intelligence analysts do not rule out the possibility of a coup once the king dies.

By eliminating rivals, Prince Mohammed apparently hopes to have a freer hand to pursue an increasingly aggressive approach toward Iran. That is an even greater concern. Saudi Arabia, a Sunni-majority country, sees Shiite-majority Iran as its chief rival for regional influence and has enlisted Mr. Trump in its efforts to constrain Iran. The two states are already fighting proxy wars in Yemen and Syria and are competing for political influence in Lebanon and Iraq. And Saudi Arabia is leading an effort to boycott and ostracize Qatar because it has dealings with Iran.

On Saturday, Prince Mohammed sucked Lebanon into the anti-Iran vortex. He hosted — and almost certainly pressured — Prime Minister Saad Hariri, Saudi Arabia’s chief Lebanese client, into announcing his resignation. This disrupted the power-sharing government in Beirut in which Hezbollah, the Iran-backed political party and militia, plays a lead role. The Saudis said Mr. Hariri didn’t do enough to rein in Hezbollah. On Monday, Foreign Minister Adel al-Jubeir said a missile fired from Yemen over the weekend was an “act of war” by Iran, which is supporting Houthi rebels against the Saudi-backed internationally recognized government. Many experts say the origin of the missile is not clear. But the Saudi rhetoric seemed intended to create a rationale for going after Iran.

The Trump administration has done little to temper Saudi Arabia’s regional ambitions or moderate its inflammatory approach to Iran; in fact it has done the opposite. Jared Kushner, Mr. Trump’s son-in-law, has visited Riyadh at least three times this year, including holding extensive talks with the crown prince a few days ago. Mr. Trump himself has displayed nothing but hostility toward Iran and urged the Saudis and their allies to be even more aggressive in their approach. So far he has said nothing about the arrests, suggesting tacit approval.

Prince Mohammed is fighting many battles, with mixed results, on many fronts, against Yemen, Qatar and his own political system. Cooler heads — whether in Washington or Riyadh — should counsel him not to add a war with Iran to his list.