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| Austria Is Poised to Shift Sharply Right in Election | |
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| VIENNA — Austrians rejected a right-wing populist to represent them as head of state by a wafer-thin margin last year. But after a general campaign focused on immigration and rocked by scandal, voters appear poised in elections this Sunday to give populism a new push by granting a far-right party at least a share of power in the next government. | VIENNA — Austrians rejected a right-wing populist to represent them as head of state by a wafer-thin margin last year. But after a general campaign focused on immigration and rocked by scandal, voters appear poised in elections this Sunday to give populism a new push by granting a far-right party at least a share of power in the next government. |
| The recent Austrian presidential election, followed by the defeat of far-right candidates in the Netherlands and in France this year, appeared to blunt the surge of populism in Europe. But last month, the far-right Alternative for Germany party won more than 90 seats in the German Parliament, making it the third-largest bloc in the legislature. A strong performance in Austria by the far-right Freedom Party could give populists additional momentum. | The recent Austrian presidential election, followed by the defeat of far-right candidates in the Netherlands and in France this year, appeared to blunt the surge of populism in Europe. But last month, the far-right Alternative for Germany party won more than 90 seats in the German Parliament, making it the third-largest bloc in the legislature. A strong performance in Austria by the far-right Freedom Party could give populists additional momentum. |
| If the polls are correct, the party could emerge from voting on Sunday in second place, with a strong chance of returning to the government for the first time in more than a decade, most likely as the junior partner in a government led by the conservative People’s Party. | If the polls are correct, the party could emerge from voting on Sunday in second place, with a strong chance of returning to the government for the first time in more than a decade, most likely as the junior partner in a government led by the conservative People’s Party. |
| While Austria is among the wealthier countries in Europe, it is struggling to get people back to work after five years of growing unemployment. Those economic troubles, combined with fears of globalization and the rapid pace of change driven by the digital revolution, have unsettled a normally consensus-seeking electorate. | While Austria is among the wealthier countries in Europe, it is struggling to get people back to work after five years of growing unemployment. Those economic troubles, combined with fears of globalization and the rapid pace of change driven by the digital revolution, have unsettled a normally consensus-seeking electorate. |
| Such factors seem to have made many voters reluctant to trust another incarnation of the center-right coalition that has dominated politics in Vienna since the end of World War II. They also seem to have set the stage for Sebastian Kurz, 31, the foreign minister and leader of the People’s Party, refashioned for the campaign as the New People’s Party. | Such factors seem to have made many voters reluctant to trust another incarnation of the center-right coalition that has dominated politics in Vienna since the end of World War II. They also seem to have set the stage for Sebastian Kurz, 31, the foreign minister and leader of the People’s Party, refashioned for the campaign as the New People’s Party. |
| The conservatives are leading the polls with about 33 percent of the vote, and Mr. Kurz could unseat Prime Minister Leo Varadkar of Ireland as the European Union’s youngest leader. | The conservatives are leading the polls with about 33 percent of the vote, and Mr. Kurz could unseat Prime Minister Leo Varadkar of Ireland as the European Union’s youngest leader. |
| Mr. Kurz, known for his slicked-back hair and open-collar shirts, entered politics in 2009 and rose quickly through the ranks of his flagging party. He took its leadership in May, demanding control to start a campaign centered primarily on him and on his reaching the chancellery. | Mr. Kurz, known for his slicked-back hair and open-collar shirts, entered politics in 2009 and rose quickly through the ranks of his flagging party. He took its leadership in May, demanding control to start a campaign centered primarily on him and on his reaching the chancellery. |
| With a team of strategists, he created a detailed plan called Project Ballhaus — a reference to the address in Vienna of the chancellor’s office, on Ballhausplatz. It involved rebranding one of Europe’s most traditional conservative parties as a dynamic, digitally driven movement focused on change, going so far as to abandon its signature black color for a more modern turquoise. | With a team of strategists, he created a detailed plan called Project Ballhaus — a reference to the address in Vienna of the chancellor’s office, on Ballhausplatz. It involved rebranding one of Europe’s most traditional conservative parties as a dynamic, digitally driven movement focused on change, going so far as to abandon its signature black color for a more modern turquoise. |
| “He knows what he wants and is ruthless,” said Stefan Lehne, a visiting scholar at Carnegie Europe who focuses on the European Union. “You have a huge black block in Austria, and Mr. Kurz has painted this block turquoise and called it a movement, and pulled off the repackaging of one of the most boring and traditional parties in Europe. It’s brilliant.” | “He knows what he wants and is ruthless,” said Stefan Lehne, a visiting scholar at Carnegie Europe who focuses on the European Union. “You have a huge black block in Austria, and Mr. Kurz has painted this block turquoise and called it a movement, and pulled off the repackaging of one of the most boring and traditional parties in Europe. It’s brilliant.” |
| Mr. Kurz, who made his name by negotiating an agreement with Austria’s Balkan neighbors to stem the flow of refugees from Greece, has advanced by co-opting the far-right’s push to limit immigration and to reinforce a national identity, but in a more moderate and polite tone. He campaigned on themes like protecting Austria’s social-welfare system, pledging to minimize refugees’ access to benefits and limiting the number of people allowed into the country. | Mr. Kurz, who made his name by negotiating an agreement with Austria’s Balkan neighbors to stem the flow of refugees from Greece, has advanced by co-opting the far-right’s push to limit immigration and to reinforce a national identity, but in a more moderate and polite tone. He campaigned on themes like protecting Austria’s social-welfare system, pledging to minimize refugees’ access to benefits and limiting the number of people allowed into the country. |
| As foreign minister in the current government, where his party is the junior partner to the center-left Socialists under Chancellor Christian Kern, Mr. Kurz has taken a tough line on Turkey, insisting that the European Union drop membership talks. | As foreign minister in the current government, where his party is the junior partner to the center-left Socialists under Chancellor Christian Kern, Mr. Kurz has taken a tough line on Turkey, insisting that the European Union drop membership talks. |
| Few doubt Mr. Kurz’s political talents. He has built support for the New People’s Party to more than 30 percent from less than 20 percent in 2016. He has managed to criticize the government in which he was serving at the time for allowing tens of thousands of immigrants into the country in 2015. Among his campaign promises is that those in Austria illegally will be returned to their home countries. | Few doubt Mr. Kurz’s political talents. He has built support for the New People’s Party to more than 30 percent from less than 20 percent in 2016. He has managed to criticize the government in which he was serving at the time for allowing tens of thousands of immigrants into the country in 2015. Among his campaign promises is that those in Austria illegally will be returned to their home countries. |
| Many Austrians fear that the roughly 90,000 refugees who arrived in the country of 8.4 million from 2015 to 2016 are draining its resources, Mr. Kurz has said. “That is why I am proposing that refugees, who have never paid into the system, receive lower benefits,” he argued on Thursday in a final television debate among the five leading candidates. “And further drawing on the system by more immigrants will be halted.” | Many Austrians fear that the roughly 90,000 refugees who arrived in the country of 8.4 million from 2015 to 2016 are draining its resources, Mr. Kurz has said. “That is why I am proposing that refugees, who have never paid into the system, receive lower benefits,” he argued on Thursday in a final television debate among the five leading candidates. “And further drawing on the system by more immigrants will be halted.” |
| Mr. Kurz’s emphasis on immigration has helped him siphon support from the Freedom Party, which has been polling at around 27 percent of the vote. He has campaigned heavily on ensuring the social welfare system remains viable for those Austrians whose contributions, drawn from their paychecks, helped create it. | Mr. Kurz’s emphasis on immigration has helped him siphon support from the Freedom Party, which has been polling at around 27 percent of the vote. He has campaigned heavily on ensuring the social welfare system remains viable for those Austrians whose contributions, drawn from their paychecks, helped create it. |
| Mr. Kurz is expected to invite the Freedom Party to join the government, but few believe such a move would create a firestorm similar to that seen 17 years ago, when it joined a center-right government. Back then, when the party’s charismatic leader, Jörg Haider, was known to express sympathy for Nazi policies, its entrance into government met with weeks of protests in Vienna, worldwide outrage and economic sanctions from Israel and some members of the European Union. | Mr. Kurz is expected to invite the Freedom Party to join the government, but few believe such a move would create a firestorm similar to that seen 17 years ago, when it joined a center-right government. Back then, when the party’s charismatic leader, Jörg Haider, was known to express sympathy for Nazi policies, its entrance into government met with weeks of protests in Vienna, worldwide outrage and economic sanctions from Israel and some members of the European Union. |
| “Should it result in a coalition between the People’s Party and the Freedom Party, of course, there will be a lot of attention on Austria, especially from foreign media,” said Julia Ortner, a journalist and political commentator for the newspaper Vorarlberger Nachrichten. “But after what we have experienced elsewhere in Europe, especially in Hungary and even in the United States, it is no longer a taboo. It has already happened that rightist-populists have come into power, here and elsewhere in the world.” | “Should it result in a coalition between the People’s Party and the Freedom Party, of course, there will be a lot of attention on Austria, especially from foreign media,” said Julia Ortner, a journalist and political commentator for the newspaper Vorarlberger Nachrichten. “But after what we have experienced elsewhere in Europe, especially in Hungary and even in the United States, it is no longer a taboo. It has already happened that rightist-populists have come into power, here and elsewhere in the world.” |
| Entering into government would further solidify the Freedom Party’s place in the political mainstream, after it narrowly lost the presidential race in 2016. The party, founded by former Nazis in the 1950s, has twice served in government, from 1983 to 1986 and from 2000 to 2006. | Entering into government would further solidify the Freedom Party’s place in the political mainstream, after it narrowly lost the presidential race in 2016. The party, founded by former Nazis in the 1950s, has twice served in government, from 1983 to 1986 and from 2000 to 2006. |
| That time in power also led the party to sharply lose support, however. Mr. Haider, its former leader, died in a car accident in 2008. | That time in power also led the party to sharply lose support, however. Mr. Haider, its former leader, died in a car accident in 2008. |
| The party regrouped under the leadership of Heinz-Christian Strache, now 48, who sought to soften his image, at times shifting his focus from criticism of Muslim immigration to the governing coalition’s failures. | The party regrouped under the leadership of Heinz-Christian Strache, now 48, who sought to soften his image, at times shifting his focus from criticism of Muslim immigration to the governing coalition’s failures. |
| “He was particularly calm, and the reason seems clear: He is no longer looking for protest votes, but wants to govern and is reacting accordingly calm and statesmanlike,” Peter Filzmaier, a professor of politics at Danube University Krems, told the broadcaster ORF after the debate on Thursday. | “He was particularly calm, and the reason seems clear: He is no longer looking for protest votes, but wants to govern and is reacting accordingly calm and statesmanlike,” Peter Filzmaier, a professor of politics at Danube University Krems, told the broadcaster ORF after the debate on Thursday. |
| Mr. Strache was further helped by a social media scandal worthy of a political mini-series, in which the Socialists were accused of a smear campaign against Mr. Kurz. The chancellor has denied any knowledge of the affair, overseen by an Israeli hired by the chancellor’s party, who was later fired. | Mr. Strache was further helped by a social media scandal worthy of a political mini-series, in which the Socialists were accused of a smear campaign against Mr. Kurz. The chancellor has denied any knowledge of the affair, overseen by an Israeli hired by the chancellor’s party, who was later fired. |
| But the affair cost the Socialists support, with polls showing their popularity slipping by around 5 percentage points from before the news broke, forcing them to cede second place to the Freedom Party. It also earned them a rebuke from President Alexander Van der Bellen, who chided the leading candidates for breaking “political porcelain,” and weakening respect for the country’s democratic institutions. | But the affair cost the Socialists support, with polls showing their popularity slipping by around 5 percentage points from before the news broke, forcing them to cede second place to the Freedom Party. It also earned them a rebuke from President Alexander Van der Bellen, who chided the leading candidates for breaking “political porcelain,” and weakening respect for the country’s democratic institutions. |