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You can find the current article at its original source at https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2017/oct/06/theresa-may-doomed-boris-johnson-tories-jeremy-corbyn
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| Version 1 | Version 2 |
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| Theresa May is doomed. Only Boris Johnson can rescue the Tories now | Theresa May is doomed. Only Boris Johnson can rescue the Tories now |
| (about 1 month later) | |
| The thing few Tories will tell you about the present ructions at the top of the party is that if one is lucky enough not to be Theresa May, her husband or one of her small band of devoted supporters, the whole thing is highly enjoyable. That may sound a heartless observation, but it is nevertheless true. Every superannuated bore in the parliamentary Conservative party feels he or she has a last chance of happiness, so long as his or her chum gets the top job. | The thing few Tories will tell you about the present ructions at the top of the party is that if one is lucky enough not to be Theresa May, her husband or one of her small band of devoted supporters, the whole thing is highly enjoyable. That may sound a heartless observation, but it is nevertheless true. Every superannuated bore in the parliamentary Conservative party feels he or she has a last chance of happiness, so long as his or her chum gets the top job. |
| Among the younger generation of Tory MPs, a dozen or more have the excitement of being spoken of as future leaders, while the rest are at least on friendly terms with these potential future leaders, and find themselves drawn into thrilling, semi-conspiratorial conversations at every hour of the day and night. Suddenly everything seems possible. The old guard is about to be swept away and a glorious new team, drawn from the most gifted members of the 2010, 2015 and 2017 parliamentary intakes, will enter office, see through Brexit and rout Jeremy Corbyn. | Among the younger generation of Tory MPs, a dozen or more have the excitement of being spoken of as future leaders, while the rest are at least on friendly terms with these potential future leaders, and find themselves drawn into thrilling, semi-conspiratorial conversations at every hour of the day and night. Suddenly everything seems possible. The old guard is about to be swept away and a glorious new team, drawn from the most gifted members of the 2010, 2015 and 2017 parliamentary intakes, will enter office, see through Brexit and rout Jeremy Corbyn. |
| Even for a mere Tory journalist such as me, who has never harboured fantasies of high office, this is an astonishing story, of a kind that the Tory party has long specialised in providing for the nation’s amusement. | Even for a mere Tory journalist such as me, who has never harboured fantasies of high office, this is an astonishing story, of a kind that the Tory party has long specialised in providing for the nation’s amusement. |
| Anyone who takes the slightest interest in politics will recall last summer’s drama, when David Cameron was thrown out of office and – a plot twist none of us had foreseen – Michael Gove decided a week later that Boris Johnson was unfit to succeed him, thus clearing the way for May to enter No 10. | Anyone who takes the slightest interest in politics will recall last summer’s drama, when David Cameron was thrown out of office and – a plot twist none of us had foreseen – Michael Gove decided a week later that Boris Johnson was unfit to succeed him, thus clearing the way for May to enter No 10. |
| In 1990, the downfall of Margaret Thatcher led to the equally unexpected rise of John Major. In 1963, Harold Macmillan’s departure precipitated an amazing leadership race, won by a peer of the realm – the 14th Earl of Home – who at the outset did not appear to be a runner. | In 1990, the downfall of Margaret Thatcher led to the equally unexpected rise of John Major. In 1963, Harold Macmillan’s departure precipitated an amazing leadership race, won by a peer of the realm – the 14th Earl of Home – who at the outset did not appear to be a runner. |
| All this will perhaps seem to some readers to be slightly premature. May, after all, is at the time of writing still in office. But having witnessed her ordeal in Manchester, I cannot believe she will be there for very long. So public a demonstration of vulnerability cannot be survived. | All this will perhaps seem to some readers to be slightly premature. May, after all, is at the time of writing still in office. But having witnessed her ordeal in Manchester, I cannot believe she will be there for very long. So public a demonstration of vulnerability cannot be survived. |
| In 2003 Iain Duncan Smith survived as Tory leader for just over a month after the conference speech in Blackpool in which he declared that the quiet man was turning up the volume. His 17 orchestrated standing ovations merely confirmed that he was doomed. Stage management could not save him, any more than it can save May. | In 2003 Iain Duncan Smith survived as Tory leader for just over a month after the conference speech in Blackpool in which he declared that the quiet man was turning up the volume. His 17 orchestrated standing ovations merely confirmed that he was doomed. Stage management could not save him, any more than it can save May. |
| Admittedly her standing ovations were spontaneous. The Tory tribe rallied round her in her hour of need. But the tribe also sees that she does not have the strength to bear the heavy burden that lies ahead. Nor, to put it mildly, is she an asset on the campaign trail. The pity that she aroused so intensely on Wednesday also dictates that, for her own sake, she needs to be relieved of a task that will crush her. | Admittedly her standing ovations were spontaneous. The Tory tribe rallied round her in her hour of need. But the tribe also sees that she does not have the strength to bear the heavy burden that lies ahead. Nor, to put it mildly, is she an asset on the campaign trail. The pity that she aroused so intensely on Wednesday also dictates that, for her own sake, she needs to be relieved of a task that will crush her. |
| Who will take over? As the above examples show, no one can be sure. Johnson is the biggest personality in the cabinet, but there is also a very strong “stop Johnson” movement. Its problem is that it does not have a candidate. Ruth Davidson appears to be even more stuck in Scotland than the 14th Earl of Home was in 1963. Is Amber Rudd an election winner? Is Philip Hammond? | Who will take over? As the above examples show, no one can be sure. Johnson is the biggest personality in the cabinet, but there is also a very strong “stop Johnson” movement. Its problem is that it does not have a candidate. Ruth Davidson appears to be even more stuck in Scotland than the 14th Earl of Home was in 1963. Is Amber Rudd an election winner? Is Philip Hammond? |
| To appoint a stop-gap leader, who will be replaced before the next general election, would not be a tolerable way to treat the British people. Whoever replaces May must be capable of fighting Corbyn. And there is, as it happens, one contender who has already beaten, twice, a Labour leftwinger called Ken Livingstone. The name of this proven winner is Johnson. He also won the EU referendum, and deserves to deal with its consequences. However much some Tory MPs may detest, despise and distrust his style of politics, they could yet decide he is the only potential leader who can save their seats and keep their party in power. | To appoint a stop-gap leader, who will be replaced before the next general election, would not be a tolerable way to treat the British people. Whoever replaces May must be capable of fighting Corbyn. And there is, as it happens, one contender who has already beaten, twice, a Labour leftwinger called Ken Livingstone. The name of this proven winner is Johnson. He also won the EU referendum, and deserves to deal with its consequences. However much some Tory MPs may detest, despise and distrust his style of politics, they could yet decide he is the only potential leader who can save their seats and keep their party in power. |
| • Andrew Gimson is a contributor to ConservativeHome | • Andrew Gimson is a contributor to ConservativeHome |
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