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You can find the current article at its original source at https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2017/oct/03/why-its-not-mission-accomplished-for-marriage-equality
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| Version 4 | Version 5 |
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| Why it’s not quite mission accomplished for marriage equality | Why it’s not quite mission accomplished for marriage equality |
| (4 months later) | |
| Nobody wants to be that guy standing on the aircraft carrier under the “mission accomplished” banner while elsewhere the insurgency rages on. | Nobody wants to be that guy standing on the aircraft carrier under the “mission accomplished” banner while elsewhere the insurgency rages on. |
| But the same-sex marriage postal survey campaign is not asymmetric warfare, it’s a matter of arithmetic. | But the same-sex marriage postal survey campaign is not asymmetric warfare, it’s a matter of arithmetic. |
| On Tuesday the Australian Bureau of Statistics estimated that as of Friday it had received 9.2m survey forms, meaning 57.5% of the 16 million eligible Australians had voted. | On Tuesday the Australian Bureau of Statistics estimated that as of Friday it had received 9.2m survey forms, meaning 57.5% of the 16 million eligible Australians had voted. |
| Marriage v de facto partnerships in Australia: the legal differences explained | |
| With four weeks of the campaign still to run, that suggests final turnout will be strong, which is positive for the legitimacy of the final result. | With four weeks of the campaign still to run, that suggests final turnout will be strong, which is positive for the legitimacy of the final result. |
| Published opinion polls on turnout have been all over the shop. A Reachtel poll released on Monday found almost 80% of respondents had returned their ballots, with 64.3% voting yes and 15.5% no. | Published opinion polls on turnout have been all over the shop. A Reachtel poll released on Monday found almost 80% of respondents had returned their ballots, with 64.3% voting yes and 15.5% no. |
| The Equality Campaign released a poll by Newgate Research showing a similarly high proportion – 77% – of Australians had already voted. But a separate Reachtel found only 60% of people had done so. | The Equality Campaign released a poll by Newgate Research showing a similarly high proportion – 77% – of Australians had already voted. But a separate Reachtel found only 60% of people had done so. |
| The ABS estimate will tend to lag actual voting patterns because it takes two to six days for surveys to arrive once posted, but the variety in polling in itself is reason for caution in predicting the final turnout. | The ABS estimate will tend to lag actual voting patterns because it takes two to six days for surveys to arrive once posted, but the variety in polling in itself is reason for caution in predicting the final turnout. |
| The ABS won’t tell us which way people voted until 15 November, but the trend in the published opinion polls is clearly positive for marriage equality now the campaign is in the business end. | The ABS won’t tell us which way people voted until 15 November, but the trend in the published opinion polls is clearly positive for marriage equality now the campaign is in the business end. |
| When the campaign started a Guardian Essential poll showed support for marriage equality at 57%, with 32% opposed. | When the campaign started a Guardian Essential poll showed support for marriage equality at 57%, with 32% opposed. |
| Polls narrowed initially after the campaign began. The two weakest polls for marriage equality were the 19 September Guardian Essential poll showing the yes vote leading 55% to 34% and the 25 September Newspoll showing the yes vote leading 57% to 34%. | Polls narrowed initially after the campaign began. The two weakest polls for marriage equality were the 19 September Guardian Essential poll showing the yes vote leading 55% to 34% and the 25 September Newspoll showing the yes vote leading 57% to 34%. |
| Why Brexit and Trump make me nervous about the marriage equality vote | Brigid Delaney's diary | |
| That downward trend was reversed by the Essential poll which rebounded on 26 September to show yes leading 58% to 33%. Monday’s Reachtel showed marriage equality leading 61% to 39%, once undecided voters and people who said they would not vote were removed. | That downward trend was reversed by the Essential poll which rebounded on 26 September to show yes leading 58% to 33%. Monday’s Reachtel showed marriage equality leading 61% to 39%, once undecided voters and people who said they would not vote were removed. |
| Veteran pollster John Stirton says the polls have been “inconsistent on the exact numbers, but underlying that they are very consistent: the yes campaign has a massive lead and yes voters are more likely to vote”. | Veteran pollster John Stirton says the polls have been “inconsistent on the exact numbers, but underlying that they are very consistent: the yes campaign has a massive lead and yes voters are more likely to vote”. |
| “It’s getting very unlikely the no campaign could win from here ... even if the no campaign came up with a killer argument, it’s too late for an awful lot of people,” he said. | “It’s getting very unlikely the no campaign could win from here ... even if the no campaign came up with a killer argument, it’s too late for an awful lot of people,” he said. |
| Election expert Peter Brent says: “It’s looking good for yes, especially if there is a high response rate. | Election expert Peter Brent says: “It’s looking good for yes, especially if there is a high response rate. |
| “We’re getting to the stage that even if the no campaign changes a lot of people’s minds it will be too late,” he said. | “We’re getting to the stage that even if the no campaign changes a lot of people’s minds it will be too late,” he said. |
| Brent adds two caveats that could make the polling wrong: people intending to vote no but telling pollsters they will vote yes because they are “ashamed”; and people who support marriage equality overstating their likelihood to vote. | Brent adds two caveats that could make the polling wrong: people intending to vote no but telling pollsters they will vote yes because they are “ashamed”; and people who support marriage equality overstating their likelihood to vote. |
| Isn’t that what happened in the election of Donald Trump and the Brexit referendum? Well, contrary to myth the polls were not that wrong in either of those cases. | Isn’t that what happened in the election of Donald Trump and the Brexit referendum? Well, contrary to myth the polls were not that wrong in either of those cases. |
| Before the US election, national polls showed Hillary Clinton up by two to three points. The results proved they were basically correct: Clinton won about 3m more votes nationally, or 2%. | Before the US election, national polls showed Hillary Clinton up by two to three points. The results proved they were basically correct: Clinton won about 3m more votes nationally, or 2%. |
| The polls were off at the state level, especially, and did not foresee that Trump would win several key rust-belt states, but that does not amount to double-digit deficiencies of the kind the no campaign would need to win. | The polls were off at the state level, especially, and did not foresee that Trump would win several key rust-belt states, but that does not amount to double-digit deficiencies of the kind the no campaign would need to win. |
| Similarly in the case of Brexit, polls showed the vote was a toss-up, with Remain slightly behind in the final weeks of the campaign and holding a tiny lead by polling day. In the end Leave won 52-48. Again, the polls were not spot-on, but they were not catastrophically wrong. | Similarly in the case of Brexit, polls showed the vote was a toss-up, with Remain slightly behind in the final weeks of the campaign and holding a tiny lead by polling day. In the end Leave won 52-48. Again, the polls were not spot-on, but they were not catastrophically wrong. |
| The yes campaign is clearly travelling well. | The yes campaign is clearly travelling well. |
| The high response rate will not speed up the timetable for the remaining process. The ABS recommends people mail their ballot by 27 October – it will count ballots it receives before 7 November and declare the result on 15 November. | The high response rate will not speed up the timetable for the remaining process. The ABS recommends people mail their ballot by 27 October – it will count ballots it receives before 7 November and declare the result on 15 November. |
| Women, young voters and inner-city dwellers drive survey enrolments | |
| But the turnout and the margin of victory will be crucial to what happens next. | But the turnout and the margin of victory will be crucial to what happens next. |
| There are already reports that conservatives are drafting their own same-sex marriage bill with more extensive protections for “religious freedom” (or changes to the law to allow discrimination against gay weddings). | There are already reports that conservatives are drafting their own same-sex marriage bill with more extensive protections for “religious freedom” (or changes to the law to allow discrimination against gay weddings). |
| The Dean Smith and George Brandis bills already allow religious ministers to refuse weddings (including same-sex weddings), so a more conservative bill would very likely allow private service providers such as bakers, photographers and florists to refuse to cater for gay weddings based on personal religious convictions. | The Dean Smith and George Brandis bills already allow religious ministers to refuse weddings (including same-sex weddings), so a more conservative bill would very likely allow private service providers such as bakers, photographers and florists to refuse to cater for gay weddings based on personal religious convictions. |
| Concerns about religious freedom have been amply aired in the postal survey campaign, with former prime ministers Tony Abbott and John Howard campaigning hard on the issue. | Concerns about religious freedom have been amply aired in the postal survey campaign, with former prime ministers Tony Abbott and John Howard campaigning hard on the issue. |
| The higher the turnout and the larger the margin if yes wins, the harder it will be for conservatives to argue Australians have not had their fears about freedom addressed. | The higher the turnout and the larger the margin if yes wins, the harder it will be for conservatives to argue Australians have not had their fears about freedom addressed. |
| So while at least half of Australians have already voted, and the yes camp has good cause for optimism, there is still a lot to play for. | So while at least half of Australians have already voted, and the yes camp has good cause for optimism, there is still a lot to play for. |
| Same-sex marriage postal survey | Same-sex marriage postal survey |
| Australian politics | Australian politics |
| Marriage equality | Marriage equality |
| Law (Australia) | Law (Australia) |
| LGBT rights | LGBT rights |
| Coalition | Coalition |
| analysis | analysis |
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