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| Version 1 | Version 2 |
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| Majority have voted in marriage equality survey, ABS says | Majority have voted in marriage equality survey, ABS says |
| (4 months later) | |
| Pollster John Stirton believes yes campaign ‘has a massive lead’ and their supporters are more likely to vote | |
| Paul Karp | |
| Tue 3 Oct 2017 04.47 BST | |
| Last modified on Tue 3 Oct 2017 20.59 BST | |
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| An estimated 9.2 million people or 57.5% of enrolled Australians have already voted in the marriage law postal survey, according to an estimate by the Australian Bureau of Statistics. | An estimated 9.2 million people or 57.5% of enrolled Australians have already voted in the marriage law postal survey, according to an estimate by the Australian Bureau of Statistics. |
| The ABS released the estimate on Tuesday afternoon, confirming that as of Friday a majority have voted in the postal survey asking if the law should be changed to allow same-sex couples to marry. | The ABS released the estimate on Tuesday afternoon, confirming that as of Friday a majority have voted in the postal survey asking if the law should be changed to allow same-sex couples to marry. |
| The estimate is indicative only and is based on the weight and number of envelopes the ABS has received rather than a full count of processed forms. | The estimate is indicative only and is based on the weight and number of envelopes the ABS has received rather than a full count of processed forms. |
| Acting special minister of state, Mathias Cormann, welcomed the result saying it showed people were embracing the chance to have their say on marriage: | Acting special minister of state, Mathias Cormann, welcomed the result saying it showed people were embracing the chance to have their say on marriage: |
| Australians embracing opportunity to have their say on marriage. 9.2m/57.5% responses received (29/9). 5 wks to go. https://t.co/B4vV2CmTG7 | Australians embracing opportunity to have their say on marriage. 9.2m/57.5% responses received (29/9). 5 wks to go. https://t.co/B4vV2CmTG7 |
| In a statement Cormann said the 57.5% turnout five weeks out from the deadline for survey forms to be returned was “very credible”. | In a statement Cormann said the 57.5% turnout five weeks out from the deadline for survey forms to be returned was “very credible”. |
| “I am very confident that the ultimate outcome of the survey will have great authority,” he said, adding that authority “will be acted on by the Australian parliament”. | “I am very confident that the ultimate outcome of the survey will have great authority,” he said, adding that authority “will be acted on by the Australian parliament”. |
| At a press conference in Melbourne Equality Campaign co-chair, Anna Brown, said the result was “incredibly promising” and suggested most Australians “simply want to get this done”. | At a press conference in Melbourne Equality Campaign co-chair, Anna Brown, said the result was “incredibly promising” and suggested most Australians “simply want to get this done”. |
| “It’s incredibly important that people take the time to complete their ballots as soon as possible … there are still millions of votes out there that need to be returned,” she said. | “It’s incredibly important that people take the time to complete their ballots as soon as possible … there are still millions of votes out there that need to be returned,” she said. |
| The Equality Campaign executive director, Tiernan Brady, said there was “no room for complacency”. | The Equality Campaign executive director, Tiernan Brady, said there was “no room for complacency”. |
| “The rest of this campaign we will not give up any single day, making sure that everybody out there knows how important this is – this is a vote about the lives and dignity of real people,” he said. | “The rest of this campaign we will not give up any single day, making sure that everybody out there knows how important this is – this is a vote about the lives and dignity of real people,” he said. |
| Two polls released on Monday suggested that more than three-quarters of enrolled voters had responded to the survey, although others put the figure closer to 50%. The ABS estimate is believed to be lower due to a lag of two to six days for posted votes to be received but it still indicates a high turnout. | Two polls released on Monday suggested that more than three-quarters of enrolled voters had responded to the survey, although others put the figure closer to 50%. The ABS estimate is believed to be lower due to a lag of two to six days for posted votes to be received but it still indicates a high turnout. |
| Applications for replacement survey forms close on 20 October. The ABS recommends people mail their ballot back by 27 October and will count ballots received before 7 November and declare the result on 15 November. | Applications for replacement survey forms close on 20 October. The ABS recommends people mail their ballot back by 27 October and will count ballots received before 7 November and declare the result on 15 November. |
| The ABS deputy statistician and head of the survey taskforce, Jonathan Palmer, said: “We hope that this update will serve as a reminder to those who have not submitted their form to do so promptly if they wish to have their say. | The ABS deputy statistician and head of the survey taskforce, Jonathan Palmer, said: “We hope that this update will serve as a reminder to those who have not submitted their form to do so promptly if they wish to have their say. |
| “If you haven’t received your form, or your form is lost or damaged, please contact us via our website and we will send you a new one.” | “If you haven’t received your form, or your form is lost or damaged, please contact us via our website and we will send you a new one.” |
| On Monday a Reachtel poll found 64.3% of respondents had sent back their ballot and voted yes compared with 15.5% who had voted no. A separate Reachtel poll found 60% of people had already voted with the yes campaign leading 61% to 39%. | On Monday a Reachtel poll found 64.3% of respondents had sent back their ballot and voted yes compared with 15.5% who had voted no. A separate Reachtel poll found 60% of people had already voted with the yes campaign leading 61% to 39%. |
| The Equality Campaign released a poll by Newgate Research showing 77% of Australians had voted including 69% of enrolled 18 to 24-year-olds. | The Equality Campaign released a poll by Newgate Research showing 77% of Australians had voted including 69% of enrolled 18 to 24-year-olds. |
| The Equality Campaign’s Alex Greenwich said a further 17% of people in that age group said they had filled out their forms but were yet to post them. “You have not voted until you have posted your yes,” he said. | The Equality Campaign’s Alex Greenwich said a further 17% of people in that age group said they had filled out their forms but were yet to post them. “You have not voted until you have posted your yes,” he said. |
| The latest Guardian Essential poll on 26 September found supporters of marriage equality outnumber opponents 58% to 33%. | The latest Guardian Essential poll on 26 September found supporters of marriage equality outnumber opponents 58% to 33%. |
| The veteran pollster John Stirton said that polls were “inconsistent on the exact numbers but underlying that they are very consistent. The yes campaign has a massive lead and yes voters are more likely to vote”. | The veteran pollster John Stirton said that polls were “inconsistent on the exact numbers but underlying that they are very consistent. The yes campaign has a massive lead and yes voters are more likely to vote”. |
| “It’s getting very unlikely the no campaign could win from here … Even if the no campaign came up with a killer argument, it’s too late for an awful lot of people.” | “It’s getting very unlikely the no campaign could win from here … Even if the no campaign came up with a killer argument, it’s too late for an awful lot of people.” |
| In a statement no campaign group Marriage Alliance said the result meant “nearly one in two are yet to cast their vote”. “We will keep working to ensure everyone understands the far-reaching consequences of redefining marriage,” it said. | In a statement no campaign group Marriage Alliance said the result meant “nearly one in two are yet to cast their vote”. “We will keep working to ensure everyone understands the far-reaching consequences of redefining marriage,” it said. |
| On Monday Bill Shorten addressed a report that the Tasmanian Labor senator Helen Polley, who opposes marriage equality, was told to pretend she had voted yes. At a doorstop in Melbourne, Shorten said that Polley is “very happy with what the Labor party is doing”. | On Monday Bill Shorten addressed a report that the Tasmanian Labor senator Helen Polley, who opposes marriage equality, was told to pretend she had voted yes. At a doorstop in Melbourne, Shorten said that Polley is “very happy with what the Labor party is doing”. |
| “And to restate our policy for the record, unlike the Liberal party, we have a conscience vote,” he said. | “And to restate our policy for the record, unlike the Liberal party, we have a conscience vote,” he said. |
| Shorten attacked the Liberal party for spending up to $122m on the postal survey, saying it had led to “divisive debate”. | Shorten attacked the Liberal party for spending up to $122m on the postal survey, saying it had led to “divisive debate”. |
| “I just hope that the Liberal party, after this postal survey is completed, that they actually stand up, allow a full conscience vote and let’s get on with it.” | “I just hope that the Liberal party, after this postal survey is completed, that they actually stand up, allow a full conscience vote and let’s get on with it.” |
| Shorten said Australians support marriage equality and “just want the matter finished”. | Shorten said Australians support marriage equality and “just want the matter finished”. |
| Marriage equality | |
| Australian politics | |
| Bill Shorten | |
| Coalition | |
| Labor party | |
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