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| Brexit weekly briefing: progress, but not enough to move talks on | Brexit weekly briefing: progress, but not enough to move talks on |
| (4 months later) | |
| Michel Barnier says Theresa May’s Florence speech made it possible to ‘unblock’ impasse, but results could be months away | |
| Jon Henley and | |
| Peter Walker | |
| Tue 3 Oct 2017 00.00 BST | |
| Last modified on Tue 3 Oct 2017 00.01 BST | |
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| Welcome to the Guardian’s weekly Brexit briefing, a summary of developments as the UK heads towards the EU door marked “exit”. If you would like to receive it as a weekly early-morning email, please sign up here. | Welcome to the Guardian’s weekly Brexit briefing, a summary of developments as the UK heads towards the EU door marked “exit”. If you would like to receive it as a weekly early-morning email, please sign up here. |
| You can listen to our latest Brexit Means podcast here. Also: producing the Guardian’s independent, in-depth journalism takes a lot of time and money. We do it because we believe our perspective matters – and it may be your perspective too. | You can listen to our latest Brexit Means podcast here. Also: producing the Guardian’s independent, in-depth journalism takes a lot of time and money. We do it because we believe our perspective matters – and it may be your perspective too. |
| If you value our Brexit coverage, please become a Guardian Supporter and help make our future more secure. Thank you. | If you value our Brexit coverage, please become a Guardian Supporter and help make our future more secure. Thank you. |
| The big picture | The big picture |
| Both sides reported progress at the conclusion of last week’s fourth round of Brexit talks, particularly on citizens’ rights, with the EU’s chief negotiator, Michel Barnier, highlighting “a new dynamic” created by Theresa May’s Florence speech. | Both sides reported progress at the conclusion of last week’s fourth round of Brexit talks, particularly on citizens’ rights, with the EU’s chief negotiator, Michel Barnier, highlighting “a new dynamic” created by Theresa May’s Florence speech. |
| But it was clear that major stumbling blocks remain and Barnier made it plain that Brexit talks were highly unlikely to advance from the key article 50 issues – of citizens’ rights, the Irish border and the financial settlement – to discuss the future trading relationship any time soon: | But it was clear that major stumbling blocks remain and Barnier made it plain that Brexit talks were highly unlikely to advance from the key article 50 issues – of citizens’ rights, the Irish border and the financial settlement – to discuss the future trading relationship any time soon: |
| Theresa May’s speech made it possible to unblock the situation, to some extent. But we are far from being at a stage – it will take weeks, or maybe even months – where we will be able to say, ‘Yes, OK, there has been sufficient progress on the principles of this orderly withdrawal.’” | Theresa May’s speech made it possible to unblock the situation, to some extent. But we are far from being at a stage – it will take weeks, or maybe even months – where we will be able to say, ‘Yes, OK, there has been sufficient progress on the principles of this orderly withdrawal.’” |
| Britain’s offer to protect EU citizens’ rights in the UK by enshrining EU law in the withdrawal treaty went down well. But while it has promised that no member state will lose out from Brexit until 2020, Britain is still not prepared to say what past financial commitments it would meet, Barnier said: | Britain’s offer to protect EU citizens’ rights in the UK by enshrining EU law in the withdrawal treaty went down well. But while it has promised that no member state will lose out from Brexit until 2020, Britain is still not prepared to say what past financial commitments it would meet, Barnier said: |
| For the EU, the only way to reach sufficient progress is that all commitments taken at 28 member states are honoured at 28. | For the EU, the only way to reach sufficient progress is that all commitments taken at 28 member states are honoured at 28. |
| Despite officials acknowledging that May’s speech was “full of concessions”, the European commission president, Jean-Claude Juncker, also said talks would not be able to move on to the next stage this month as the UK wants: | Despite officials acknowledging that May’s speech was “full of concessions”, the European commission president, Jean-Claude Juncker, also said talks would not be able to move on to the next stage this month as the UK wants: |
| At the end of October, we will not have sufficient progress. I’m saying that there will be no sufficient progress from now until October, unless miracles would happen. | At the end of October, we will not have sufficient progress. I’m saying that there will be no sufficient progress from now until October, unless miracles would happen. |
| With every new round of talks, it seems to become clearer, as the Guardian’s Brexit policy editor, Dan Roberts, wrote, that the pace and direction of Britain’s retreat is being determined entirely by one side: | With every new round of talks, it seems to become clearer, as the Guardian’s Brexit policy editor, Dan Roberts, wrote, that the pace and direction of Britain’s retreat is being determined entirely by one side: |
| Barnier now makes no bones about this being a game played on his turf, by his rules, and that Britain will have to keep coming back, and back, until it provides the right answer. | Barnier now makes no bones about this being a game played on his turf, by his rules, and that Britain will have to keep coming back, and back, until it provides the right answer. |
| If the government wants to move on to trade talks, it may soon face a stark choice: fold on the remaining points by ceding more money and control to Brussels, or give in to increasing demands from within the Conservative party to walk away without a deal. | If the government wants to move on to trade talks, it may soon face a stark choice: fold on the remaining points by ceding more money and control to Brussels, or give in to increasing demands from within the Conservative party to walk away without a deal. |
| The view from Europe | The view from Europe |
| The newly re-elected German chancellor, Angela Merkel, who met May on the margins of an EU summit in Tallinn, made it clear she would not bypass Barnier to intervene in the negotiations on the UK’s behalf, but described the British prime minister’s request for a transitional period as an “interesting” proposal: | The newly re-elected German chancellor, Angela Merkel, who met May on the margins of an EU summit in Tallinn, made it clear she would not bypass Barnier to intervene in the negotiations on the UK’s behalf, but described the British prime minister’s request for a transitional period as an “interesting” proposal: |
| Today we talked about the first phase. And this first phase means to solve the Northern Ireland question, the rights of the citizens and the financial questions. There is progress here. We will surely follow the recommendations of Barnier. | Today we talked about the first phase. And this first phase means to solve the Northern Ireland question, the rights of the citizens and the financial questions. There is progress here. We will surely follow the recommendations of Barnier. |
| The summit also heard that the European council president, Donald Tusk, would draft future options for the EU by its October summit. The French president, Emmanuel Macron, stressed that the EU will stick to its Brexit talks schedule: | The summit also heard that the European council president, Donald Tusk, would draft future options for the EU by its October summit. The French president, Emmanuel Macron, stressed that the EU will stick to its Brexit talks schedule: |
| If we accept speaking about life after [Brexit], we will open 27 debates on future life that are profoundly weakening for the EU. That’s why the chosen method is the good one. | If we accept speaking about life after [Brexit], we will open 27 debates on future life that are profoundly weakening for the EU. That’s why the chosen method is the good one. |
| Meanwhile, back in Westminster | Meanwhile, back in Westminster |
| The political action has shifted to Manchester this week, where the Conservatives are holding a conference dominated by Brexit, or one particularly niche and insular aspect of it. | The political action has shifted to Manchester this week, where the Conservatives are holding a conference dominated by Brexit, or one particularly niche and insular aspect of it. |
| Yes, conversations remain focused on Boris Johnson’s personal views on the departure from the EU, and the foreign secretary’s perceived disloyalty in calling for a transition period strictly limited to two years. | Yes, conversations remain focused on Boris Johnson’s personal views on the departure from the EU, and the foreign secretary’s perceived disloyalty in calling for a transition period strictly limited to two years. |
| It was the onerous job of Philip Hammond to tour the broadcast studios on Monday and explain all this, and the chancellor was remarkably open about a cabinet split. “There are differences of view, nobody is denying that,” he said. | It was the onerous job of Philip Hammond to tour the broadcast studios on Monday and explain all this, and the chancellor was remarkably open about a cabinet split. “There are differences of view, nobody is denying that,” he said. |
| Hammond also warned that a lack of unity could weaken the UK’s negotiating position with Europe, saying businesses need as much certainty possible. This does seem the case. | Hammond also warned that a lack of unity could weaken the UK’s negotiating position with Europe, saying businesses need as much certainty possible. This does seem the case. |
| In a highly unusual intervention, the head of the British Chambers of Commerce accused Johnson of destabilising the government and warned that division was undermining economic confidence. Adam Marshall said there was growing impatience with “division and disorganisation at the heart of the party of government”. | In a highly unusual intervention, the head of the British Chambers of Commerce accused Johnson of destabilising the government and warned that division was undermining economic confidence. Adam Marshall said there was growing impatience with “division and disorganisation at the heart of the party of government”. |
| How does Theresa May get out of this? One option would be to sack Johnson – Hammond was at pains to point out that no one in the cabinet should be seen as beyond such a fate – but that could plunge the government into chaos. | How does Theresa May get out of this? One option would be to sack Johnson – Hammond was at pains to point out that no one in the cabinet should be seen as beyond such a fate – but that could plunge the government into chaos. |
| Instead, expect some protestations on unity in Manchester, and a speech from May on Wednesday that will attempt to move the debate on. How, and if, she can do that remains to be seen. | Instead, expect some protestations on unity in Manchester, and a speech from May on Wednesday that will attempt to move the debate on. How, and if, she can do that remains to be seen. |
| You should also know … | You should also know … |
| Slowdown in UK manufacturing as weak pound raises production costs. | Slowdown in UK manufacturing as weak pound raises production costs. |
| MEPs’ views of Brexit “could be coloured” by Home Office’s treatment of foreign nationals, warns Guy Verhofstadt. | MEPs’ views of Brexit “could be coloured” by Home Office’s treatment of foreign nationals, warns Guy Verhofstadt. |
| Electoral commission faces court challenge over the £625,000 of Vote Leave campaign spending that reached a digital marketing company. | Electoral commission faces court challenge over the £625,000 of Vote Leave campaign spending that reached a digital marketing company. |
| Experts dismiss Jeremy Corbyn’s claim that the single market would prevent implementation of a socialist manifesto. | Experts dismiss Jeremy Corbyn’s claim that the single market would prevent implementation of a socialist manifesto. |
| Britons in EU hail PM’s “big step forward” on residency rights and urge the EU to reciprocate. | Britons in EU hail PM’s “big step forward” on residency rights and urge the EU to reciprocate. |
| Any form of Brexit will damage the NHS, academics say. | Any form of Brexit will damage the NHS, academics say. |
| UK sugar industry licks its lips over the end of EU quotas and price-fixing. | UK sugar industry licks its lips over the end of EU quotas and price-fixing. |
| Boris Johnson is accused of breaching the ministerial code over the launch of the Institute for Free Trade thinktank. | Boris Johnson is accused of breaching the ministerial code over the launch of the Institute for Free Trade thinktank. |
| Read these | Read these |
| In the Guardian, Jonathan Lis of the British Influence thinktank offers this on Brexit’s impact on the NHS: | In the Guardian, Jonathan Lis of the British Influence thinktank offers this on Brexit’s impact on the NHS: |
| We value the NHS more than any other institution. As the defining icon of the postwar consensus and intrinsic component of our national story, it unites Britons across political, geographical and class divides. | We value the NHS more than any other institution. As the defining icon of the postwar consensus and intrinsic component of our national story, it unites Britons across political, geographical and class divides. |
| Crippled by austerity, staff shortages and low morale, our NHS is on its knees. But far from offering a helping hand, Brexit threatens to bring it down altogether. | Crippled by austerity, staff shortages and low morale, our NHS is on its knees. But far from offering a helping hand, Brexit threatens to bring it down altogether. |
| Brexit stands to damage staffing, funding, access to new products and technology, and standards of public health … The key area of risk is also the central plank of Brexit: restrictions on free movement of people. | Brexit stands to damage staffing, funding, access to new products and technology, and standards of public health … The key area of risk is also the central plank of Brexit: restrictions on free movement of people. |
| Jonathan Freedland argues that the Labour leadership’s misguided aversion to the single market is blinding the party leadership to the economic harm of leaving the EU: | Jonathan Freedland argues that the Labour leadership’s misguided aversion to the single market is blinding the party leadership to the economic harm of leaving the EU: |
| All but the most deluded Brexiteers concede that departing from the EU will hurt the economy, for a few years at the very least. Corbyn and McDonnell have big plans that will cost big money. | All but the most deluded Brexiteers concede that departing from the EU will hurt the economy, for a few years at the very least. Corbyn and McDonnell have big plans that will cost big money. |
| But, thanks to Brexit, they will find less cash in the coffers, and less market willingness to lend the country any more. They will face early the shadow that has hung over every reforming Labour government: the prospect of the money running out. This is what should keep Labour’s ruling circle up at night. | But, thanks to Brexit, they will find less cash in the coffers, and less market willingness to lend the country any more. They will face early the shadow that has hung over every reforming Labour government: the prospect of the money running out. This is what should keep Labour’s ruling circle up at night. |
| It’s not the EU that could turn their dreams to ashes – it’s leaving the EU that could do that. | It’s not the EU that could turn their dreams to ashes – it’s leaving the EU that could do that. |
| Tweet of the week | Tweet of the week |
| A striking Brexit image from Andrew Adonis: | A striking Brexit image from Andrew Adonis: |
| Senior official tells me 70% of Whitehall officials dealing with Brexit inter alia. 'Whenever we lift a stone, masses of things crawl out.' | Senior official tells me 70% of Whitehall officials dealing with Brexit inter alia. 'Whenever we lift a stone, masses of things crawl out.' |
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