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| The Tories need to find new ways of engaging younger voters, or risk extinction | |
| (4 months later) | |
| Sun 1 Oct 2017 16.35 BST | |
| Last modified on Sun 1 Oct 2017 16.36 BST | |
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| Manchester has always seemed an unlikely place to host a Conservative party conference. Since the Peterloo Massacre of 1819, in which 15 peaceful protesters were killed and hundreds injured by a Tory-recruited cavalry, the left has stoked the city’s memory of proletariat martyrdom. Mancunians rightly point out that the mobs that regularly harass arriving Tory delegates are swelled by out-of-towner activists. But the city’s more courteous discomfort with its Tory guests – expressed in the new Jeremy Corbyn posters now littering shop fronts – is one reason I understand that the party won’t be renewing its three-year contract with Manchester Central. | Manchester has always seemed an unlikely place to host a Conservative party conference. Since the Peterloo Massacre of 1819, in which 15 peaceful protesters were killed and hundreds injured by a Tory-recruited cavalry, the left has stoked the city’s memory of proletariat martyrdom. Mancunians rightly point out that the mobs that regularly harass arriving Tory delegates are swelled by out-of-towner activists. But the city’s more courteous discomfort with its Tory guests – expressed in the new Jeremy Corbyn posters now littering shop fronts – is one reason I understand that the party won’t be renewing its three-year contract with Manchester Central. |
| It’s not just the antipathy of Manchester that’s left the Tories feeling under siege this week. No reasonable observer can deny it is Labour, not the Conservatives, that is setting the political weather. True, June’s snap election was a weaker barometer of public opinion than some in Labour like to pretend. Local candidates’ records on Brexit were often more important than national narratives. But we have some other metrics of political support, and they are not good for the Tories either. | It’s not just the antipathy of Manchester that’s left the Tories feeling under siege this week. No reasonable observer can deny it is Labour, not the Conservatives, that is setting the political weather. True, June’s snap election was a weaker barometer of public opinion than some in Labour like to pretend. Local candidates’ records on Brexit were often more important than national narratives. But we have some other metrics of political support, and they are not good for the Tories either. |
| As of 1 September, Labour party membership was about 550,000. (Corbyn himself boasted at last week’s Labour conference that the party is the largest in western Europe.) The Conservatives, by contrast, haven’t released their membership data since 2013, when they numbered just shy of 150,000. This secrecy has fuelled politics’ most depressing party game, as journalists try to guess the ever-decreasing figure. This weekend, renegade Tory activist John Strafford claimed the numbers were about to dip below 100,000 – and the highly influential Conservative Home website backed him up. Strafford, a familiar face in Tory circles, claims that “the party is facing oblivion”. | As of 1 September, Labour party membership was about 550,000. (Corbyn himself boasted at last week’s Labour conference that the party is the largest in western Europe.) The Conservatives, by contrast, haven’t released their membership data since 2013, when they numbered just shy of 150,000. This secrecy has fuelled politics’ most depressing party game, as journalists try to guess the ever-decreasing figure. This weekend, renegade Tory activist John Strafford claimed the numbers were about to dip below 100,000 – and the highly influential Conservative Home website backed him up. Strafford, a familiar face in Tory circles, claims that “the party is facing oblivion”. |
| The heart of the rot is Conservatives’ failure to engage young people – and by extension, young members. Like pandas, Tory activists seem hopelessly shy about reproducing themselves. In previous generations, Conservative associations would comfort themselves with the knowledge that we all become more conservative as we grew older. Now, the polling is said to carry a warning message: the middle-aged are the first generation not to start voting Conservative as they head towards retirement. | The heart of the rot is Conservatives’ failure to engage young people – and by extension, young members. Like pandas, Tory activists seem hopelessly shy about reproducing themselves. In previous generations, Conservative associations would comfort themselves with the knowledge that we all become more conservative as we grew older. Now, the polling is said to carry a warning message: the middle-aged are the first generation not to start voting Conservative as they head towards retirement. |
| The Conservatives do seem to have grasped this. The weekend’s headlines are awash with Tory policy promises aimed at wooing young voters. On the Andrew Marr Show, Theresa May promised a freeze in tuition fees, a rise in the threshold for fee repayments and a full review of the tuition fees system. She also promised to extend the Help to Buy scheme, which will grant more people access to the housing ladder, but not tackle the price bubble. Is any of this enough? | The Conservatives do seem to have grasped this. The weekend’s headlines are awash with Tory policy promises aimed at wooing young voters. On the Andrew Marr Show, Theresa May promised a freeze in tuition fees, a rise in the threshold for fee repayments and a full review of the tuition fees system. She also promised to extend the Help to Buy scheme, which will grant more people access to the housing ladder, but not tackle the price bubble. Is any of this enough? |
| Not really. The Tory party’s problems with young people are profound and cultural – not merely a failure of retail marketing. For young people to vote Conservative, the party has to offer a future young people want. YouGov polling commissioned by the Bright Blue thinktank revealed on Saturday that a higher proportion of young people cite climate change as a defining political issue than their parents and grandparents: if CCHQ needed a poll to know this, they are in a worse state than we thought. Taking climate change seriously doesn’t have to be the first step to rolling back the industrial revolution. It does need to be framed in the context of a new intergenerational contract – a recognition that young people are already paying too high a price for the pleasures of the baby-boomers. | Not really. The Tory party’s problems with young people are profound and cultural – not merely a failure of retail marketing. For young people to vote Conservative, the party has to offer a future young people want. YouGov polling commissioned by the Bright Blue thinktank revealed on Saturday that a higher proportion of young people cite climate change as a defining political issue than their parents and grandparents: if CCHQ needed a poll to know this, they are in a worse state than we thought. Taking climate change seriously doesn’t have to be the first step to rolling back the industrial revolution. It does need to be framed in the context of a new intergenerational contract – a recognition that young people are already paying too high a price for the pleasures of the baby-boomers. |
| Intergenerational contracts used to be what Burkean Toryism was all about. And they don’t just apply to the resources of the planet. Every analyst knows that we need to build more houses and every Tory council in the Home Counties denies it. And while Downing Street framed disastrously the pledge last election to make homeowners pay for geriatric care, former chief of staff Nick Timothy was right to start a difficult conversation about what happens when the richest generation are also the heaviest burden on the civil purse. At some point the retirement age will be raised again. That should be pitched directly to the young, in the most selfish of terms. Why should your taxes pay for your parents to be pensioners for 20 years? | Intergenerational contracts used to be what Burkean Toryism was all about. And they don’t just apply to the resources of the planet. Every analyst knows that we need to build more houses and every Tory council in the Home Counties denies it. And while Downing Street framed disastrously the pledge last election to make homeowners pay for geriatric care, former chief of staff Nick Timothy was right to start a difficult conversation about what happens when the richest generation are also the heaviest burden on the civil purse. At some point the retirement age will be raised again. That should be pitched directly to the young, in the most selfish of terms. Why should your taxes pay for your parents to be pensioners for 20 years? |
| The second part of any plan to woo young voters requires a willingness to make the case for conservatism in new and direct language. That means explaining the advantages of capitalism even when it feels at its most unpopular. The decision by Sadiq Khan to deny Uber an operating licence in London – though sure to be reviewed when the company cleans up its act – is the first time recently that Labour has put itself on the wrong side of a generational divide. You can’t use stories about Stalin to dissuade people born after 1989 from central economic planning. You need to explain that it means Labour are taking away your cheap cabs. | The second part of any plan to woo young voters requires a willingness to make the case for conservatism in new and direct language. That means explaining the advantages of capitalism even when it feels at its most unpopular. The decision by Sadiq Khan to deny Uber an operating licence in London – though sure to be reviewed when the company cleans up its act – is the first time recently that Labour has put itself on the wrong side of a generational divide. You can’t use stories about Stalin to dissuade people born after 1989 from central economic planning. You need to explain that it means Labour are taking away your cheap cabs. |
| Finally, the Tory party needs to loosen the relationship between party membership and local constituencies. Younger generations are attracted by ideas; not bingo nights. The Tories have been understandably reluctant to resurrect the Conservative Future brand after the repulsive bullying scandal of recent years. Today, at the voluntary party’s national convention, the reformist MP George Freeman is launching his “champions panel”, a selection of young high flyers with particular expertise who will feedback the policy ideas of younger members to the party. This is a step in the right direction. So, too, is Eric Pickles’s proposal that two members under the age of 30 be required to approve all local candidates. It will be difficult to pull off, but it will reduce the number of older members actively discouraging ambitious younger members from challenging their dominance. | Finally, the Tory party needs to loosen the relationship between party membership and local constituencies. Younger generations are attracted by ideas; not bingo nights. The Tories have been understandably reluctant to resurrect the Conservative Future brand after the repulsive bullying scandal of recent years. Today, at the voluntary party’s national convention, the reformist MP George Freeman is launching his “champions panel”, a selection of young high flyers with particular expertise who will feedback the policy ideas of younger members to the party. This is a step in the right direction. So, too, is Eric Pickles’s proposal that two members under the age of 30 be required to approve all local candidates. It will be difficult to pull off, but it will reduce the number of older members actively discouraging ambitious younger members from challenging their dominance. |
| Can the Tories reverse their negative trend with younger voters? Let’s be real: no. But they can stem the bleeding. That requires selling a 21st-century vision of capitalism alongside a promise that there will still be a 22nd-century Earth to inherit. Otherwise, the pandas may yet outlive them. | Can the Tories reverse their negative trend with younger voters? Let’s be real: no. But they can stem the bleeding. That requires selling a 21st-century vision of capitalism alongside a promise that there will still be a 22nd-century Earth to inherit. Otherwise, the pandas may yet outlive them. |
| • Kate Maltby is a freelance writer and an associate fellow of Bright Blue, a thinktank for liberal conservatism | • Kate Maltby is a freelance writer and an associate fellow of Bright Blue, a thinktank for liberal conservatism |
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