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| Juncker says miracles are needed for progress on Brexit talks | Juncker says miracles are needed for progress on Brexit talks |
| (35 minutes later) | |
| Jean-Claude Juncker has in effect ruled out a widening of the Brexit negotiations next month to take in a future trading relationship between Britain and the bloc, despite an acknowledgement by senior EU officials that Theresa May’s speech in Florence last week was “full of concessions”. | Jean-Claude Juncker has in effect ruled out a widening of the Brexit negotiations next month to take in a future trading relationship between Britain and the bloc, despite an acknowledgement by senior EU officials that Theresa May’s speech in Florence last week was “full of concessions”. |
| “At the end of October, we will not have sufficient progress,” the president of the European commission said in Tallinn, Estonia, at a summit of EU leaders. “I’m saying that there will be no sufficient progress from now until October unless miracles would happen.” | “At the end of October, we will not have sufficient progress,” the president of the European commission said in Tallinn, Estonia, at a summit of EU leaders. “I’m saying that there will be no sufficient progress from now until October unless miracles would happen.” |
| Brussels has long demanded sufficient progress on its financial settlement, citizens’ rights and the Irish border before it fulfils the UK’s wish to move on to talks about trade. The UK has become increasingly pessimistic about getting the go-ahead on future trade talks when EU leaders meet again next month, as was planned under the commission’s timetable for the negotiations, but the government had not entirely given up hope. | Brussels has long demanded sufficient progress on its financial settlement, citizens’ rights and the Irish border before it fulfils the UK’s wish to move on to talks about trade. The UK has become increasingly pessimistic about getting the go-ahead on future trade talks when EU leaders meet again next month, as was planned under the commission’s timetable for the negotiations, but the government had not entirely given up hope. |
| A senior EU source said of Juncker’s comments: “Mr Juncker is a commissioner. He believes in miracles. If it will happen, it will be in December.” A European council summit of EU leaders is due on the 14th of that month. | A senior EU source said of Juncker’s comments: “Mr Juncker is a commissioner. He believes in miracles. If it will happen, it will be in December.” A European council summit of EU leaders is due on the 14th of that month. |
| Asked if Brussels expected any further concessions from the British prime minister at Tory party conference next week, the source said: “We believe in miracles. We are not hallucinating.” | Asked if Brussels expected any further concessions from the British prime minister at Tory party conference next week, the source said: “We believe in miracles. We are not hallucinating.” |
| Juncker’s comments are likely to reinforce the British government’s fear that the European commission – the EU’s executive body – is acting as a block on progress, although there is still solid support from the member states for EU’s chief negotiator, Michel Barnier, and his team. | Juncker’s comments are likely to reinforce the British government’s fear that the European commission – the EU’s executive body – is acting as a block on progress, although there is still solid support from the member states for EU’s chief negotiator, Michel Barnier, and his team. |
| This week, David Davis, the Brexit secretary, embarked on a charm offensive of senior ministers in Belgium, the Netherlands and Denmark. British government sources explained that they felt a need to explain their position without the filter of the commission and Barnier. | This week, David Davis, the Brexit secretary, embarked on a charm offensive of senior ministers in Belgium, the Netherlands and Denmark. British government sources explained that they felt a need to explain their position without the filter of the commission and Barnier. |
| The EU27’s negotiating guidelines for the two-year Brexit talks stipulate that they must take place in two phases: separation and “orderly withdrawal”, followed by future relationship. Only when the EU27 decide “sufficient progress” has been made on phase one can phase two begin. | |
| Broadly, phase one is about providing “clarity and certainty” to people and businesses on Brexit’s consequences and agreeing a sum covering the commitments the UK made as an EU member: avoiding a legal vacuum, protecting citizens’ rights, solving the Irish border, and reaching a financial settlement. | |
| Phase two of the talks will then focus on agreeing the “framework” of the future trading relationship between the UK and the EU. A transition period can also be agreed as part of this second stage, but the detail of the future relationship can only be worked out once the UK has left. | |
| Britain wants to move to stage two fast, but in order to keep as much leverage as possible in talks on the future relationship aims to delay agreeing the financial settlement as long as possible. The EU27 are adamant that all phase one issues must be addressed to their satisfaction before any talk of the future relationship. | |
| On Thursday, Barnier hailed a “new dynamic” to the negotiations after May’s Florence speech, but suggested talks could remain in a stalemate for months unless the UK agreed to honour all its financial commitments and give concessions over the role of the European court of justice in overseeing the withdrawal agreement. | On Thursday, Barnier hailed a “new dynamic” to the negotiations after May’s Florence speech, but suggested talks could remain in a stalemate for months unless the UK agreed to honour all its financial commitments and give concessions over the role of the European court of justice in overseeing the withdrawal agreement. |
| May had made significant pledges on the divorce bill and citizens’ rights in Florence and they were well received in Europe’s capitals. Speaking in Tallinn on Friday, she repeated her hope that the speech would give the talks momentum, which she hoped would be reciprocated in Brussels. | May had made significant pledges on the divorce bill and citizens’ rights in Florence and they were well received in Europe’s capitals. Speaking in Tallinn on Friday, she repeated her hope that the speech would give the talks momentum, which she hoped would be reciprocated in Brussels. |
| A Downing Street spokesman said May had reiterated that aspiration to the German chancellor, Angela Merkel, during a face-to-face meeting on the margins of the summit. | A Downing Street spokesman said May had reiterated that aspiration to the German chancellor, Angela Merkel, during a face-to-face meeting on the margins of the summit. |
| The spokesman said Merkel had welcomed the Florence speech and that the two leaders had agreed on the need to settle the issue of citizens’ rights “at the earliest opportunity”. | The spokesman said Merkel had welcomed the Florence speech and that the two leaders had agreed on the need to settle the issue of citizens’ rights “at the earliest opportunity”. |
| “The prime minister pointed to the commitment made in her Florence speech to incorporate the agreement reached on citizens’ rights fully into UK law and make sure the UK courts can refer directly to it,” the Downing Street spokesman added. | “The prime minister pointed to the commitment made in her Florence speech to incorporate the agreement reached on citizens’ rights fully into UK law and make sure the UK courts can refer directly to it,” the Downing Street spokesman added. |
| “The PM also stressed it was in everybody’s interests to agree to a time-limited implementation [transition] period once Britain leaves the EU, to provide certainty to businesses and others in both Britain and the EU.” | “The PM also stressed it was in everybody’s interests to agree to a time-limited implementation [transition] period once Britain leaves the EU, to provide certainty to businesses and others in both Britain and the EU.” |
| It is understood that during the half-hour conversation, the German chancellor was keen to understand more about the UK’s hopes for the transition period. Berlin wants to know what the future relationship with the UK will look like before it will agree to it. | It is understood that during the half-hour conversation, the German chancellor was keen to understand more about the UK’s hopes for the transition period. Berlin wants to know what the future relationship with the UK will look like before it will agree to it. |
| Separately, the Guardian has learned that Davis was passed the message from Berlin earlier this week that there would not be any change in Germany’s position on Brexit following the German election, and Merkel was not open to expending major political capital on fixing a deal. “To be fair, unlike Boris Johnson, I think he understands that,” said one source. | Separately, the Guardian has learned that Davis was passed the message from Berlin earlier this week that there would not be any change in Germany’s position on Brexit following the German election, and Merkel was not open to expending major political capital on fixing a deal. “To be fair, unlike Boris Johnson, I think he understands that,” said one source. |
| It is further accepted in Brussels, and across Europe, that the British government has been limited in what it has been able to promise before the Tory party conference. | It is further accepted in Brussels, and across Europe, that the British government has been limited in what it has been able to promise before the Tory party conference. |
| One senior EU official described the conference in Manchester, where May will need to tread a difficult political line due to the divides in her party, as “an obvious barrier” and that “things would likely change” by the time the next round of negotiations started on 9 October. | One senior EU official described the conference in Manchester, where May will need to tread a difficult political line due to the divides in her party, as “an obvious barrier” and that “things would likely change” by the time the next round of negotiations started on 9 October. |
| Christian Kern, the Austrian chancellor, said he was pleased May had made clear to fellow leaders during a dinner in Tallinn on Thursday night that she was “not leaving Europe but the EU and is willing to cooperate”. | Christian Kern, the Austrian chancellor, said he was pleased May had made clear to fellow leaders during a dinner in Tallinn on Thursday night that she was “not leaving Europe but the EU and is willing to cooperate”. |
| The Lithuanian president, Dalia Grybauskaitė, said May’s Florence speech had provide “a bit more clarity” but that both sides had to accept that the negotiations were “out of shape”. | The Lithuanian president, Dalia Grybauskaitė, said May’s Florence speech had provide “a bit more clarity” but that both sides had to accept that the negotiations were “out of shape”. |
| She said: “Today we can say the negotiations are a bit behind schedule … We need to acknowledge to each other they are out of shape … We need to find a good solution, good for all.” | She said: “Today we can say the negotiations are a bit behind schedule … We need to acknowledge to each other they are out of shape … We need to find a good solution, good for all.” |
| Addressing British troops stationed in Estonia earlier in the day, May said the UK was not leaving Europe and was “unconditionally committed to maintaining Europe’s security”. More than 800 British troops have been in the Estonian town of Tapa since April, alongside Estonian and French forces. | Addressing British troops stationed in Estonia earlier in the day, May said the UK was not leaving Europe and was “unconditionally committed to maintaining Europe’s security”. More than 800 British troops have been in the Estonian town of Tapa since April, alongside Estonian and French forces. |