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Oil 'could hit $200 within years' Oil 'could hit $200 within years'
(10 minutes later)
A serious oil supply crisis is looming, which could push prices above $200 a barrel, a think tank has warned.A serious oil supply crisis is looming, which could push prices above $200 a barrel, a think tank has warned.
A "supply crunch" will affect the world market within the next five to 10 years, the Chatham House report said.A "supply crunch" will affect the world market within the next five to 10 years, the Chatham House report said.
While there is plenty of oil in the ground, companies and governments were failing to invest enough to ensure production, it added.While there is plenty of oil in the ground, companies and governments were failing to invest enough to ensure production, it added.
Only a collapse in demand can stave off the looming crisis, report author Professor Paul Stevens said.Only a collapse in demand can stave off the looming crisis, report author Professor Paul Stevens said.
"In reality, the only possibility of avoiding such a crunch appears to be if a major recession reduces demand - and even then such an outcome may only postpone the problem," he said in The Coming Oil Supply Crunch."In reality, the only possibility of avoiding such a crunch appears to be if a major recession reduces demand - and even then such an outcome may only postpone the problem," he said in The Coming Oil Supply Crunch.
Lack of fundingLack of funding
Prof Stevens warns that investment in new oil supplies has been inadequate as oil firms prefer to return profits to shareholders rather than reinvest it. Prof Stevens warned that investment in new oil supplies has been inadequate as oil firms prefer to return profits to shareholders rather than reinvest it.
Furthermore, oil producing cartel Opec has failed to meet plans to expand its capacity since 2005.Furthermore, oil producing cartel Opec has failed to meet plans to expand its capacity since 2005.
He also argues that a "resurgence of resource nationalism" means that governments are "starving" their national oil companies of investment by excluding international oil firms from helping to develop capacity. He also argued that a "resurgence of resource nationalism" means that governments are "starving" their national oil companies of investment by excluding international oil firms from helping to develop capacity.
"While the forecast is controversial and extremely bullish, even allowing for some increase in capacity over the next few years, a supply crunch appears likely around 2013," he added."While the forecast is controversial and extremely bullish, even allowing for some increase in capacity over the next few years, a supply crunch appears likely around 2013," he added.
"The implication is that it will quickly translate into a price spike although there is a question over how strategic stocks might be used to alleviate this.""The implication is that it will quickly translate into a price spike although there is a question over how strategic stocks might be used to alleviate this."
Unpopular measuresUnpopular measures
However, Prof Stevens does conclude that only "extreme policy measures could achieve a speedy response" in boosting supplies and lowering oil prices - a move that is likely to be "politically unpopular".However, Prof Stevens does conclude that only "extreme policy measures could achieve a speedy response" in boosting supplies and lowering oil prices - a move that is likely to be "politically unpopular".
Other, longer-term moves suggested by the report include offering support to help oil-exporters to manage "resource curse" - where an abundance of natural resources can damage a country's economy - and allowing Opec to join the International Energy Authority's emergency sharing scheme.Other, longer-term moves suggested by the report include offering support to help oil-exporters to manage "resource curse" - where an abundance of natural resources can damage a country's economy - and allowing Opec to join the International Energy Authority's emergency sharing scheme.
The report comes just days after oil prices slipped from peaks near $150 a barrel.The report comes just days after oil prices slipped from peaks near $150 a barrel.