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Pound jumps as UK retail sales beat forecasts – business live Pound jumps as UK retail sales beat forecasts – business live
(35 minutes later)
12.07pm BST
12:07
This chart highlights how Britons spent more on non-food items in August, and also relied more on internet shopping and catalogues (non-store spending).
Paul Mumford of Cavendish Asset Management argues that this is an encouraging sign that consumers aren’t “dead and buried” despite Brexit uncertainty.
This is a promising sign for an industry that investors have shunned in recent months due to headwinds such as a rising minimum wage, and higher input costs in line with the Sterling fall.
The pound is now moving in the right direction for importers, and moderate inflation could be coming into play - lessening competitive pressures and making it easier for these companies to absorb rising input costs.
Notably the performance of non-store retailers is impressive, and demonstrates a continued trend towards online shopping, which in itself makes retailers more international, and less vulnerable to a weak pound.
11.49am BST11.49am BST
11:4911:49
Here’s Capital Economics’ take:Here’s Capital Economics’ take:
Strong retail sales figs this morning. Robust growth in sales values suggests not much belt-tightening happening despite real pay squeeze. pic.twitter.com/QMJGqCvP6KStrong retail sales figs this morning. Robust growth in sales values suggests not much belt-tightening happening despite real pay squeeze. pic.twitter.com/QMJGqCvP6K
11.35am BST11.35am BST
11:3511:35
Credit Suisse: BoE will hike in November, but it shouldn'tCredit Suisse: BoE will hike in November, but it shouldn't
Credit Suisse has joined the ranks of City experts predicting that the Bank of England will raise interest rates in November, from 0.25% to 0.5%.Credit Suisse has joined the ranks of City experts predicting that the Bank of England will raise interest rates in November, from 0.25% to 0.5%.
But they add a proviso - such a rate hike would be a mistake.But they add a proviso - such a rate hike would be a mistake.
In a new report to clients today, Credit Suisse argues that the UK economy hasn’t reached the point where monetary policy needs to be tightened.In a new report to clients today, Credit Suisse argues that the UK economy hasn’t reached the point where monetary policy needs to be tightened.
In their view, growth is too weak, especially as Brexit is creating “short-term political noise”.In their view, growth is too weak, especially as Brexit is creating “short-term political noise”.
They say:They say:
We think the BoE has misdiagnosed the amount of slack and growth potential in the UK economy.We think the BoE has misdiagnosed the amount of slack and growth potential in the UK economy.
The hike is unlikely to have a profoundly negative impact on the economy, but there is a risk of a non-linear response to the first rate hike in ten years. A tighter response to an (entirely) externally driven inflation overshoot today runs the risk of a sustained inflation undershoot in the future.The hike is unlikely to have a profoundly negative impact on the economy, but there is a risk of a non-linear response to the first rate hike in ten years. A tighter response to an (entirely) externally driven inflation overshoot today runs the risk of a sustained inflation undershoot in the future.
Jamie McGeever of Reuters also questions whether UK wages are really rising fast enough to justify a hike.Jamie McGeever of Reuters also questions whether UK wages are really rising fast enough to justify a hike.
Sept 15 - BoE's Vlieghe says "rising pay pressure" could lead to rate hike soonSept 20 - BoE survey finds UK wage growth is "subdued"Sept 15 - BoE's Vlieghe says "rising pay pressure" could lead to rate hike soonSept 20 - BoE survey finds UK wage growth is "subdued"
11.02am BST11.02am BST
11:0211:02
OECD: UK to lag behind the eurozone next yearOECD: UK to lag behind the eurozone next year
Britain’s economy will lag behind most international rivals next year, as the eurozone’s recovery strengthensBritain’s economy will lag behind most international rivals next year, as the eurozone’s recovery strengthens
That’s according to the OECD, which has just updated its economic forecasts.That’s according to the OECD, which has just updated its economic forecasts.
The good news is that the Paris-based thinktank sees Europe’s economy catching up with America. In particular, it has hiked its forecast for Italian growth to 1.2%, from 0.8%.The good news is that the Paris-based thinktank sees Europe’s economy catching up with America. In particular, it has hiked its forecast for Italian growth to 1.2%, from 0.8%.
The OECD says:The OECD says:
The upturn has become more synchronised across countries. Investment, employment and trade are expanding.The upturn has become more synchronised across countries. Investment, employment and trade are expanding.
But the bad news is that Britain’s growth is expected to slow, from 1.6% in 2016 to just 1% in 2018.But the bad news is that Britain’s growth is expected to slow, from 1.6% in 2016 to just 1% in 2018.
That would put the UK at the bottom of the G7 growth league!That would put the UK at the bottom of the G7 growth league!
OECD 2018 GDP forecasts:USA 2.4%Canada 2.3%Germany 2.1%Euro area 1.9%France 1.6%Italy 1.2%Japan 1.2%UK 1%https://t.co/z6qo1CZdvYOECD 2018 GDP forecasts:USA 2.4%Canada 2.3%Germany 2.1%Euro area 1.9%France 1.6%Italy 1.2%Japan 1.2%UK 1%https://t.co/z6qo1CZdvY
Here’s our news story about the OECB forecasts:Here’s our news story about the OECB forecasts:
11.01am BST11.01am BST
11:0111:01
Andrew Sentance, senior economic adviser at PwC, reckons UK shops benefitted because more people stayed at home this summer (as foreign holidays are rather pricier since the Brexit vote).Andrew Sentance, senior economic adviser at PwC, reckons UK shops benefitted because more people stayed at home this summer (as foreign holidays are rather pricier since the Brexit vote).
He also believes that the first UK interest rate in a decade is imminent:He also believes that the first UK interest rate in a decade is imminent:
“It is encouraging that retail sales proved resilient and bounced back in August. Anecdotal reports from retailers suggest that spending may have been helped by more “staycations” in response to the weakness of the pound which pushes up the cost of overseas travel.“It is encouraging that retail sales proved resilient and bounced back in August. Anecdotal reports from retailers suggest that spending may have been helped by more “staycations” in response to the weakness of the pound which pushes up the cost of overseas travel.
“The underlying picture has not changed greatly, though. In the past three months, retail sales volumes were just over 2 percent up on a year ago - and the annual growth rate has been hovering around 2 percent for most of this year. This is substantially below the growth rate of around 4.5 percent recorded in the three years 2014 to 2016 when inflation was much lower.“The underlying picture has not changed greatly, though. In the past three months, retail sales volumes were just over 2 percent up on a year ago - and the annual growth rate has been hovering around 2 percent for most of this year. This is substantially below the growth rate of around 4.5 percent recorded in the three years 2014 to 2016 when inflation was much lower.
“These latest figures will give further encouragement to the Bank of England to follow up their recent statements on the need to raise interest rates. The first rise in UK interest rates for over a decade has now become even more likely - and we could see this happen at the next MPC meeting in November.”“These latest figures will give further encouragement to the Bank of England to follow up their recent statements on the need to raise interest rates. The first rise in UK interest rates for over a decade has now become even more likely - and we could see this happen at the next MPC meeting in November.”
10.49am BST10.49am BST
10:4910:49
But.... the Bank of England is less upbeatBut.... the Bank of England is less upbeat
Hold on a moment, though. The Bank of England’s latest healthcheck on the UK economy suggests that consumers are cutting back.Hold on a moment, though. The Bank of England’s latest healthcheck on the UK economy suggests that consumers are cutting back.
The BoE’s latest Agents Survey, just released, suggests that cautious shoppers are cutting back, or buying cheaper items. Higher inflation, though, means they’re having to pay more at the tills.The BoE’s latest Agents Survey, just released, suggests that cautious shoppers are cutting back, or buying cheaper items. Higher inflation, though, means they’re having to pay more at the tills.
The survey is based on interviews with around 700 companies across the UK.The survey is based on interviews with around 700 companies across the UK.
Here are the key points:Here are the key points:
Consumer spending growth had eased slightly further in values terms. Manufacturing output growth had risen again, with exports supported by the past fall in sterling. Investment intentions were consistent with modest growth in spending over the year ahead.Consumer spending growth had eased slightly further in values terms. Manufacturing output growth had risen again, with exports supported by the past fall in sterling. Investment intentions were consistent with modest growth in spending over the year ahead.
Recruitment difficulties had edged higher and broadened slightly. Pay awards were clustered around 2%–3%.Recruitment difficulties had edged higher and broadened slightly. Pay awards were clustered around 2%–3%.
Consumer goods price inflation had picked up further, largely reflecting the effects of the past fall in sterling feeding through into retail prices. Consumer services price inflation had also edged higherConsumer goods price inflation had picked up further, largely reflecting the effects of the past fall in sterling feeding through into retail prices. Consumer services price inflation had also edged higher
10.17am BST10.17am BST
10:1710:17
Jake Trask, FX research director at OFX, reckons the jump in retail spending in August will encourage Britain’s central bank to raise interest rates soon:Jake Trask, FX research director at OFX, reckons the jump in retail spending in August will encourage Britain’s central bank to raise interest rates soon:
“For the Bank of England, this data is yet more evidence that an interest rate hike is needed sooner rather than later, in an effort to get inflation back under control. Should CPI print 3% or higher in October, then we may see a rate hike as early as November, when the next quarterly Inflation Report is due.“For the Bank of England, this data is yet more evidence that an interest rate hike is needed sooner rather than later, in an effort to get inflation back under control. Should CPI print 3% or higher in October, then we may see a rate hike as early as November, when the next quarterly Inflation Report is due.
“Former Monetary Policy Committee doves, Andrew Haldane and Gertjan Vlieghe, have already indicated that they’re close to switching sides, so the Bank will only need one other Committee member to join them before the rate can rise back to pre-Referendum levels.”“Former Monetary Policy Committee doves, Andrew Haldane and Gertjan Vlieghe, have already indicated that they’re close to switching sides, so the Bank will only need one other Committee member to join them before the rate can rise back to pre-Referendum levels.”
10.06am BST10.06am BST
10:0610:06
UK retail sales: instant reactionUK retail sales: instant reaction
The acceleration in UK retail sales last month is surprising, given household incomes are being squeezed by inflation.The acceleration in UK retail sales last month is surprising, given household incomes are being squeezed by inflation.
It may show that people are borrowing more, warns Neil Wilson of ETX Capital:It may show that people are borrowing more, warns Neil Wilson of ETX Capital:
Those retail sales numbers are not going to assuage fears about the consumer credit splurgeThose retail sales numbers are not going to assuage fears about the consumer credit splurge
Economics journalist Dharshini David also flags this up:Economics journalist Dharshini David also flags this up:
Sturdy 1% rise in @ons retail sales Aug rounds off solid summer for consumer spending despite pay squeeze (but more reliant on borrowing?)Sturdy 1% rise in @ons retail sales Aug rounds off solid summer for consumer spending despite pay squeeze (but more reliant on borrowing?)
Economist Rupert Seggins points out that these monthly figures can be volatile...Economist Rupert Seggins points out that these monthly figures can be volatile...
Third consecutive monthly rise in retail sales growth. Will be lots of focus on August, but the monthly growth figures are VERY volatile. pic.twitter.com/DvimMHHJ77Third consecutive monthly rise in retail sales growth. Will be lots of focus on August, but the monthly growth figures are VERY volatile. pic.twitter.com/DvimMHHJ77
...but the underlying picture is that people are still spending....but the underlying picture is that people are still spending.
Underlying trends in retail sales - price inflation still up and volume growth holding up. Growth in sales values is very strong. pic.twitter.com/4OpSumtDB8Underlying trends in retail sales - price inflation still up and volume growth holding up. Growth in sales values is very strong. pic.twitter.com/4OpSumtDB8
9.43am BST9.43am BST
09:4309:43
UK retail sales have now risen for three months in a row, as this chart shows:UK retail sales have now risen for three months in a row, as this chart shows:
9.38am BST9.38am BST
09:3809:38
Pound jumps as retail sales smash forecastsPound jumps as retail sales smash forecasts
Breaking! UK retail sales were much stronger than expected in August.Breaking! UK retail sales were much stronger than expected in August.
The Office for National Statistics reports that retail sales jumped by 1.0% last month, beating City forecasts, and suggesting that consumers are still hitting the high street.The Office for National Statistics reports that retail sales jumped by 1.0% last month, beating City forecasts, and suggesting that consumers are still hitting the high street.
The ONS says:The ONS says:
This has sent the pound jumping over half a cent against the US dollar, to $1.3587, as traders calculate that this makes a November interest rate rise more likely.This has sent the pound jumping over half a cent against the US dollar, to $1.3587, as traders calculate that this makes a November interest rate rise more likely.
Stroooooong retail sales and the British pound is officially on another mad one pic.twitter.com/oopj4NOAH4Stroooooong retail sales and the British pound is officially on another mad one pic.twitter.com/oopj4NOAH4
Reaction to follow....Reaction to follow....
9.26am BST9.26am BST
09:2609:26
Britain’s small businesses don’t share the sense of optimism in the markets.Britain’s small businesses don’t share the sense of optimism in the markets.
Confidence among UK firms has taken a tumble in the last three months, according to the Federation of Small Businesses. It’s Small Business Index has dropped to just +1 this quarter, down from +15 in April-June, and near to the -3 seen after last summer’s Brexit vote.Confidence among UK firms has taken a tumble in the last three months, according to the Federation of Small Businesses. It’s Small Business Index has dropped to just +1 this quarter, down from +15 in April-June, and near to the -3 seen after last summer’s Brexit vote.
Mike Cherry, FSB National Chairman, blamed economic factors:Mike Cherry, FSB National Chairman, blamed economic factors:
“Rising inflationary pressure and a weakening domestic economy are the twin drivers of plummeting confidence among small firms and consumers alike.“Rising inflationary pressure and a weakening domestic economy are the twin drivers of plummeting confidence among small firms and consumers alike.
Optimism among UK small firms has tumbled to its lowest level since EU referendum a/c Fed of Small Businesses surveyOptimism among UK small firms has tumbled to its lowest level since EU referendum a/c Fed of Small Businesses survey
UpdatedUpdated
at 9.26am BSTat 9.26am BST
9.06am BST9.06am BST
09:0609:06
Tata Steel to merge European operations with ThyssenKruppTata Steel to merge European operations with ThyssenKrupp
There’s big news in the steel industry this morning.There’s big news in the steel industry this morning.
Tata Steel has signed a “memorandum of understanding” with German steel manufacturer ThyssenKrupp to merge, creating Europe’s second largest steel group.Tata Steel has signed a “memorandum of understanding” with German steel manufacturer ThyssenKrupp to merge, creating Europe’s second largest steel group.
This ends uncertainty over the future of Tata’s operations in the UK, including the Port Talbot steelworkers which was recently threatened with closure.This ends uncertainty over the future of Tata’s operations in the UK, including the Port Talbot steelworkers which was recently threatened with closure.
But it’s not all good news; Tata and ThyssenKrupp are already planning around 4,000 job cuts.But it’s not all good news; Tata and ThyssenKrupp are already planning around 4,000 job cuts.
The FT’s Jonathan Eley sees further consolidation ahead:The FT’s Jonathan Eley sees further consolidation ahead:
If I worked at Port Talbot, I wouldn't much like the look of this para in Thyssen/Tata statement pic.twitter.com/iAqCDoyRwYIf I worked at Port Talbot, I wouldn't much like the look of this para in Thyssen/Tata statement pic.twitter.com/iAqCDoyRwY
Unions have said they “cautiously welcome” the deal. Here’s the full story:Unions have said they “cautiously welcome” the deal. Here’s the full story:
8.55am BST8.55am BST
08:5508:55
Peter Rosenstreich of Swissquote Bank fears that markets could react badly if the Federal Reserve announces that it will start unwinding its stimulus programme, and cut the size of its balance sheet.Peter Rosenstreich of Swissquote Bank fears that markets could react badly if the Federal Reserve announces that it will start unwinding its stimulus programme, and cut the size of its balance sheet.
He argues that investors are simply too relaxed, given the risks of geopolitical instability around the globe:He argues that investors are simply too relaxed, given the risks of geopolitical instability around the globe:
The big news event on 20 September will be the report of the US Federal Reserve’s Open Market Committee – we believe the central bank will finally announce plans to start selling its massive holding of bonds. This is likely to begin in October. Meanwhile, the Fed is unlikely to move interest rates.The big news event on 20 September will be the report of the US Federal Reserve’s Open Market Committee – we believe the central bank will finally announce plans to start selling its massive holding of bonds. This is likely to begin in October. Meanwhile, the Fed is unlikely to move interest rates.
What does this mean for the US dollar? Possibly a shock. Markets are calm – too calm, really, like those western films where the sheriff rides into an empty town. Despite the tensions in North Korea and the Middle East, despite a see-sawing US president, despite implied volatility, willingness to take risks is historically unprecedented, which we know could end in tears. Markets continue to rationalize this, by seeing low inflation, solid growth and gradual central bank normalization. We’re not so sure. A balance-sheet unloading could end the ‘feel good’ environment, sending both bond and stock markets southward.What does this mean for the US dollar? Possibly a shock. Markets are calm – too calm, really, like those western films where the sheriff rides into an empty town. Despite the tensions in North Korea and the Middle East, despite a see-sawing US president, despite implied volatility, willingness to take risks is historically unprecedented, which we know could end in tears. Markets continue to rationalize this, by seeing low inflation, solid growth and gradual central bank normalization. We’re not so sure. A balance-sheet unloading could end the ‘feel good’ environment, sending both bond and stock markets southward.
8.37am BST8.37am BST
08:3708:37
Asian markets remained calm today, despite Donald Trump’s threat to ‘totally destroy’ North Korea.Asian markets remained calm today, despite Donald Trump’s threat to ‘totally destroy’ North Korea.
The South Korean won strengthened a little, shrugging off Trump’s remarkable attack on ‘rocket man’ Kim Jong Un.The South Korean won strengthened a little, shrugging off Trump’s remarkable attack on ‘rocket man’ Kim Jong Un.
Today's front page 👇 - Trump, Boris, Gaga... pic.twitter.com/4jOgWV2sw8Today's front page 👇 - Trump, Boris, Gaga... pic.twitter.com/4jOgWV2sw8
European markets have also opened softly too, with the FTSE 100 gaining 9 points to 7283, and Germany’s DAX pretty flat.European markets have also opened softly too, with the FTSE 100 gaining 9 points to 7283, and Germany’s DAX pretty flat.
Connor Campbell of SpreadEx says:Connor Campbell of SpreadEx says:
Despite myriad different macro-events fighting for attention – including a deadly earthquake in Mexico, the latest hurricane devastation in the Caribbean, Donald Trump’s sabre-rattling speech at the UN and Boris Johnson’s Brexit boasting – the markets are only interested in one thing this Wednesday: September’s Federal Reserve meeting.Despite myriad different macro-events fighting for attention – including a deadly earthquake in Mexico, the latest hurricane devastation in the Caribbean, Donald Trump’s sabre-rattling speech at the UN and Boris Johnson’s Brexit boasting – the markets are only interested in one thing this Wednesday: September’s Federal Reserve meeting.
8.14am BST8.14am BST
08:1408:14
World markets at new peaksWorld markets at new peaks
World stock markets are at record highs as investors await tonight’s Federal Reserve decision.World stock markets are at record highs as investors await tonight’s Federal Reserve decision.
The MSCI All Country World Index has nudged up to 487.66, up from 487.37 yesterday.The MSCI All Country World Index has nudged up to 487.66, up from 487.37 yesterday.
That extends its recent run of record highs, as markets begin the autumn in good spirits.That extends its recent run of record highs, as markets begin the autumn in good spirits.
That follows another solid day’s trading on Wall Street, where the Dow Jones and the S&P both hit record highs.That follows another solid day’s trading on Wall Street, where the Dow Jones and the S&P both hit record highs.
Mike van Dulken of Accendo Markets says:Mike van Dulken of Accendo Markets says:
Investors are buckling up for another Fed policy update which may contain news and/or hints about the timing of further policy tightening by way of balance sheet unwinding and the next rate hike.Investors are buckling up for another Fed policy update which may contain news and/or hints about the timing of further policy tightening by way of balance sheet unwinding and the next rate hike.
7.59am BST7.59am BST
07:5907:59
The agenda: All eyes on the Federal ReserveThe agenda: All eyes on the Federal Reserve
Good morning, and welcome to our rolling coverage of the world economy, the financial markets, the eurozone and business.Good morning, and welcome to our rolling coverage of the world economy, the financial markets, the eurozone and business.
Investors around the globe have one thing at the top of their agenda today - the Federal Reserve. America’s top central bankers are meeting today to set monetary policy, and it could be a red letter day in the recovery from the financial crisis.Investors around the globe have one thing at the top of their agenda today - the Federal Reserve. America’s top central bankers are meeting today to set monetary policy, and it could be a red letter day in the recovery from the financial crisis.
The Fed is expected to take the historic move to start unwinding its massive stimulus programme, concluding that the US economy is strong enough to cope without a helping hand.The Fed is expected to take the historic move to start unwinding its massive stimulus programme, concluding that the US economy is strong enough to cope without a helping hand.
“Massive” isn’t an understatement. After the crisis began in 2008, the Fed bought tens of billions of dollars of government bonds each month, swelling its balance sheet to a mighty $4.5 trillion. It now has to decide how to unwind this money-printing programme without spooking the financial markets.“Massive” isn’t an understatement. After the crisis began in 2008, the Fed bought tens of billions of dollars of government bonds each month, swelling its balance sheet to a mighty $4.5 trillion. It now has to decide how to unwind this money-printing programme without spooking the financial markets.
The Fed is likely to tread carefully; it’s not expected to raise interest rates today, for example.The Fed is likely to tread carefully; it’s not expected to raise interest rates today, for example.
Policymakers will also indicate whether they expect borrowing costs to rise this year, and where they expect rates to peak in a few years, by using the Fed’s famous Dot Plot.Policymakers will also indicate whether they expect borrowing costs to rise this year, and where they expect rates to peak in a few years, by using the Fed’s famous Dot Plot.
Here’s the old dot plot (each blob shows where one Fed committee member expects rates to be each year).Here’s the old dot plot (each blob shows where one Fed committee member expects rates to be each year).
(Fed dot plot) FOMC members estimate a 3% interest rate in the long run, chart @FT https://t.co/4B6OV7J3s1 pic.twitter.com/O172AaKCcC(Fed dot plot) FOMC members estimate a 3% interest rate in the long run, chart @FT https://t.co/4B6OV7J3s1 pic.twitter.com/O172AaKCcC
Today’s arrangement of dots will be closely scrutinised, says Naeem Aslam of Think Markets:Today’s arrangement of dots will be closely scrutinised, says Naeem Aslam of Think Markets:
The element that investors are going to pay a lot of attention is the update on the dot plot. We expect the Fed to show more softer approach to the future interest rate hike.The element that investors are going to pay a lot of attention is the update on the dot plot. We expect the Fed to show more softer approach to the future interest rate hike.
According to their last projection, the Fed expected seven rate hikes by the end of 2019. However, in the new forecast, the market is widely expecting them to drop one interest rate hike.According to their last projection, the Fed expected seven rate hikes by the end of 2019. However, in the new forecast, the market is widely expecting them to drop one interest rate hike.
The immediate question is whether the Fed still expects to make one more interest rise this year (assuming they don’t hike tonight).The immediate question is whether the Fed still expects to make one more interest rise this year (assuming they don’t hike tonight).
The Fed will also release new economic forecasts, and could also talk about the impact which the hurricane season will have on US growth.The Fed will also release new economic forecasts, and could also talk about the impact which the hurricane season will have on US growth.
The markets aren’t really sure what to expect, so we’re looking at a cautious day’s trading until the Fed announcement comes at 7pm UK time, or 2pm in New York.The markets aren’t really sure what to expect, so we’re looking at a cautious day’s trading until the Fed announcement comes at 7pm UK time, or 2pm in New York.
European opening call @LCGTrading $FTSE +3 points at 7278$DAX -8 points at 12553$CAC -6 points at 5231#EuroStoxx -7 points at 3524European opening call @LCGTrading $FTSE +3 points at 7278$DAX -8 points at 12553$CAC -6 points at 5231#EuroStoxx -7 points at 3524
The agenda:The agenda:
9.30am BST: UK retail sales for August. They’re expected to be flat month-on-month, having risen 0.5% in July.9.30am BST: UK retail sales for August. They’re expected to be flat month-on-month, having risen 0.5% in July.
10am BST: OECD publishes its latest global economic outlook. Will it repeat its warning of a Brexit slowdown in 2018?10am BST: OECD publishes its latest global economic outlook. Will it repeat its warning of a Brexit slowdown in 2018?
7pm BST: Federal Reserve decision released.7pm BST: Federal Reserve decision released.
7.30 BST: Fed chair Janet Yellen’s press conference7.30 BST: Fed chair Janet Yellen’s press conference