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Strengthening Category 5 Maria nears Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico – a hurricane disaster scenario Strengthening Category 5 Maria nears Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico – a hurricane disaster scenario
(about 1 hour later)
(This article, originally published at 11:45 a.m., was updated at 9:05 p.m. to reflect the latest National Hurricane Center advisories.) (This article, originally published at 11:45 a.m., was updated at 10:00 p.m. to reflect the latest National Hurricane Center advisories.)
Strengthening Category 5 Hurricane Maria is plowing toward the U.S. Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico —  truly a nightmare situation for these islands. Tuesday night and Wednesday, the storm, ranking among the most intense on record, will inflict a “potentially catastrophic” combination of destructive winds up to 175 mph, coastal inundation from surging ocean waters, and tremendous rainfall.Strengthening Category 5 Hurricane Maria is plowing toward the U.S. Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico —  truly a nightmare situation for these islands. Tuesday night and Wednesday, the storm, ranking among the most intense on record, will inflict a “potentially catastrophic” combination of destructive winds up to 175 mph, coastal inundation from surging ocean waters, and tremendous rainfall.
“This is going to impact all of Puerto Rico with a force and violence that we haven’t seen for several generations,” Puerto Rican Gov. Ricardo Rosselló told the Associated Press. “We’re going to lose a lot of infrastructure in Puerto Rico. We’re going to have to rebuild.”“This is going to impact all of Puerto Rico with a force and violence that we haven’t seen for several generations,” Puerto Rican Gov. Ricardo Rosselló told the Associated Press. “We’re going to lose a lot of infrastructure in Puerto Rico. We’re going to have to rebuild.”
The National Hurricane Center urged those residing in the Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico to rush preparations to completion.The National Hurricane Center urged those residing in the Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico to rush preparations to completion.
“On the forecast track, [Maria] would be the most destructive hurricane in Puerto Rico history,” tweeted Eric Blake, a forecaster at the Hurricane Center.“On the forecast track, [Maria] would be the most destructive hurricane in Puerto Rico history,” tweeted Eric Blake, a forecaster at the Hurricane Center.
As the storm further strengthened Tuesday evening, Michael Brennan, another Hurricane Center forecaster tweeted: “Starting to run out of adjectives for #Maria. Horrifying.”As the storm further strengthened Tuesday evening, Michael Brennan, another Hurricane Center forecaster tweeted: “Starting to run out of adjectives for #Maria. Horrifying.”
Hurricane Maria – The latestHurricane Maria – The latest
At 9 p.m., Maria was positioned 50 miles southeast of St. Croix and was churning to the west-northwest at 10 mph. Hurricane warnings cover the U.S. and British Virgin Islands as well as Puerto Rico. The storm had strengthened Tuesday afternoon and evening, its peak winds increasing from 160 to 175 mph, to an intensity in the upper echelon of Atlantic storms in recorded history. At 10 p.m., Maria was positioned 40 miles southeast of St. Croix and was churning to the west-northwest at 10 mph. The storm had strengthened Tuesday afternoon and evening, its peak winds increasing from 160 to 175 mph, to an intensity in the upper echelon of Atlantic storms in recorded history.
Tropical storm-force wind gusts had already begun in parts of the U.S. Virgin Islands with gusts reported up to 72 mph in the eastern part of St. Croix before 9 p.m. Winds were increasing in the U.S. Virgin Islands with gusts reported up to 87 mph in St. Croix before 10 p.m. The Hurricane Center said sustained hurricane-force winds were likely to begin on the island “soon.”
The forecastThe forecast
Passing over very warm ocean water, Maria is likely to maintain Maria at Category 5 strength into early Wednesday. “It now appears likely that Maria will be at category 5 intensity when it moves over the U.S. Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico,” the Hurricane Center said.Passing over very warm ocean water, Maria is likely to maintain Maria at Category 5 strength into early Wednesday. “It now appears likely that Maria will be at category 5 intensity when it moves over the U.S. Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico,” the Hurricane Center said.
Conditions in the U.S. Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico will deteriorate Tuesday evening as tropical storm-like conditions commence. The core of the storm and its violent winds arrive are expected by early Wednesday morning. Because the storm is a relatively slow mover, this region can expect extreme hurricane conditions for an extended duration well into the day Wednesday and perhaps into Wednesday night.Conditions in the U.S. Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico will deteriorate Tuesday evening as tropical storm-like conditions commence. The core of the storm and its violent winds arrive are expected by early Wednesday morning. Because the storm is a relatively slow mover, this region can expect extreme hurricane conditions for an extended duration well into the day Wednesday and perhaps into Wednesday night.
The effects forecast by the National Weather Service over Puerto Rico and the U.S. Virgin Islands are dire, and its warning statement carries an apocalyptic tone. It says to expect “catastrophic damage” from winds to 175 mph, including “structural damage to sturdy buildings, some with complete roof and wall failures.” It warns that “locations may be uninhabitable for weeks or months.”The effects forecast by the National Weather Service over Puerto Rico and the U.S. Virgin Islands are dire, and its warning statement carries an apocalyptic tone. It says to expect “catastrophic damage” from winds to 175 mph, including “structural damage to sturdy buildings, some with complete roof and wall failures.” It warns that “locations may be uninhabitable for weeks or months.”
Anything close to this National Weather Service forecast for maximum winds gusts would be a complete disaster for Puerto Rico. #Maria pic.twitter.com/2WMdPBxhzp — Capital Weather Gang (@capitalweather) September 20, 2017
Anything close to this National Weather Service forecast for maximum winds gusts would be a complete disaster for Puerto Rico. #Maria pic.twitter.com/2WMdPBxhzp
— Capital Weather Gang (@capitalweather) September 20, 2017
It also predicts “devastating to catastrophic flooding” from rainfall amounts of 12 to 18 inches, with isolated totals exceeding 25 inches. It says the rain may “prompt numerous evacuations and rescues” and “enter numerous structures within multiple communities.” Then it adds that streets and parking lots may “become rivers of raging water” and warns some structures will become “uninhabitable or washed away.”It also predicts “devastating to catastrophic flooding” from rainfall amounts of 12 to 18 inches, with isolated totals exceeding 25 inches. It says the rain may “prompt numerous evacuations and rescues” and “enter numerous structures within multiple communities.” Then it adds that streets and parking lots may “become rivers of raging water” and warns some structures will become “uninhabitable or washed away.”
Along the coast, the Weather Service describes”extensive impacts” from a “life-threatening” storm surge at the coast, reaching 6 to 9 feet above normally dry land. The highest storm surge is likely to occur just north and northeast of where the center makes landfall, which could target southeast Puerto Rico, and the south shore of St. Croix.Along the coast, the Weather Service describes”extensive impacts” from a “life-threatening” storm surge at the coast, reaching 6 to 9 feet above normally dry land. The highest storm surge is likely to occur just north and northeast of where the center makes landfall, which could target southeast Puerto Rico, and the south shore of St. Croix.
In the areas hit hardest by storm surge, the Weather Service describes these effects: “Large areas of deep inundation with storm surge flooding accentuated by battering waves. Structural damage to buildings, with several washing away. Damage compounded by floating debris. Locations may be uninhabitable for an extended period.”In the areas hit hardest by storm surge, the Weather Service describes these effects: “Large areas of deep inundation with storm surge flooding accentuated by battering waves. Structural damage to buildings, with several washing away. Damage compounded by floating debris. Locations may be uninhabitable for an extended period.”
Link: National Weather Service Local Hurricane Statement for Puerto Rico and the U.S. Virgin IslandsLink: National Weather Service Local Hurricane Statement for Puerto Rico and the U.S. Virgin Islands
The projected storm track is such that the most severe conditions may target St. Croix and southeast Puerto Rico. But the storm is expansive enough that small wobbles could bring devastating effects farther to the north and west, including over the same areas hardest hit by Hurricane Irma, such as St. Thomas and St. John in the U.S. Virgin Islands and the entirety of the British Virgin Islands. And even if these islands remain north of the storm’s core, a dangerous storm surge of up to 7 to 11 feet above normally dry land is possible.The projected storm track is such that the most severe conditions may target St. Croix and southeast Puerto Rico. But the storm is expansive enough that small wobbles could bring devastating effects farther to the north and west, including over the same areas hardest hit by Hurricane Irma, such as St. Thomas and St. John in the U.S. Virgin Islands and the entirety of the British Virgin Islands. And even if these islands remain north of the storm’s core, a dangerous storm surge of up to 7 to 11 feet above normally dry land is possible.
Puerto Rico is very vulnerable to hurricanes, but one has not made landfall there since Georges in 1998. It just missed the worst of Irma, which scraped along its north shore, but an estimated 1 million people lost electricity because of its fragile power infrastructure. Before Irma struck, officials warned some areas could be without power for months.Puerto Rico is very vulnerable to hurricanes, but one has not made landfall there since Georges in 1998. It just missed the worst of Irma, which scraped along its north shore, but an estimated 1 million people lost electricity because of its fragile power infrastructure. Before Irma struck, officials warned some areas could be without power for months.
Just one Category 5 hurricane has hit Puerto Rico in recorded history, back in 1928; Maria could become the second if it maintains its strength. The last time a Category 4 storm struck the island was in 1932.Just one Category 5 hurricane has hit Puerto Rico in recorded history, back in 1928; Maria could become the second if it maintains its strength. The last time a Category 4 storm struck the island was in 1932.
[Puerto Rico has a long history with tropical storms. None of them were like Hurricane Maria.][Puerto Rico has a long history with tropical storms. None of them were like Hurricane Maria.]
Only four recorded Category 4 or stronger hurricanes have made landfall on Puerto Rico. #Maria is threatening to be the fifth. #MariaPR pic.twitter.com/hrXkB1s2g1 — Michael Lowry (@MichaelRLowry) September 18, 2017Only four recorded Category 4 or stronger hurricanes have made landfall on Puerto Rico. #Maria is threatening to be the fifth. #MariaPR pic.twitter.com/hrXkB1s2g1 — Michael Lowry (@MichaelRLowry) September 18, 2017
Only four recorded Category 4 or stronger hurricanes have made landfall on Puerto Rico. #Maria is threatening to be the fifth. #MariaPR pic.twitter.com/hrXkB1s2g1Only four recorded Category 4 or stronger hurricanes have made landfall on Puerto Rico. #Maria is threatening to be the fifth. #MariaPR pic.twitter.com/hrXkB1s2g1
— Michael Lowry (@MichaelRLowry) September 18, 2017— Michael Lowry (@MichaelRLowry) September 18, 2017
Effects on the Dominican Republic, Turks and Caicos and Southeast BahamasEffects on the Dominican Republic, Turks and Caicos and Southeast Bahamas
By Wednesday night and through Thursday, the storm should be exiting Puerto Rico and is forecast to parallel the north shore of the Dominican Republic — also hard hit by Irma. It has been placed under a hurricane warning.By Wednesday night and through Thursday, the storm should be exiting Puerto Rico and is forecast to parallel the north shore of the Dominican Republic — also hard hit by Irma. It has been placed under a hurricane warning.
On Friday, the hurricane is expected to come close to the Turks and Caicos and southeast Bahamas, which were also ravaged by Irma. These areas have been place under a hurricane watch.On Friday, the hurricane is expected to come close to the Turks and Caicos and southeast Bahamas, which were also ravaged by Irma. These areas have been place under a hurricane watch.
U.S. effectsU.S. effects
After the storm passes the Southeast Bahamas, some models suggest it could find an escape route out to sea, remaining offshore from the East Coast, but it is way too early to sound the all-clear.After the storm passes the Southeast Bahamas, some models suggest it could find an escape route out to sea, remaining offshore from the East Coast, but it is way too early to sound the all-clear.
Hurricane Jose may help in keeping Maria away from the U.S. mainland by drawing it to the northeast. However, if Jose weakens too quickly, Maria could drift closer to the U.S. coast by the middle of next week.Hurricane Jose may help in keeping Maria away from the U.S. mainland by drawing it to the northeast. However, if Jose weakens too quickly, Maria could drift closer to the U.S. coast by the middle of next week.
Even if Maria remains just offshore along the East Coast, dangerous surf and rip currents are likely.Even if Maria remains just offshore along the East Coast, dangerous surf and rip currents are likely.
Maria’s place in history and this hurricane season in perspectiveMaria’s place in history and this hurricane season in perspective
On Tuesday evening, Maria’s pressure dropped to 909 millibars, ranking among the 10 lowest in recorded history in the Atlantic. The lower the pressure the stronger the storm.On Tuesday evening, Maria’s pressure dropped to 909 millibars, ranking among the 10 lowest in recorded history in the Atlantic. The lower the pressure the stronger the storm.
Here's a list of lowest Atlantic pressure on record. #Maria at 909mb is lowest since Dean in 2007. All devastating storms on this list. pic.twitter.com/lhQAsdeukL — Eric Fisher (@ericfisher) September 19, 2017Here's a list of lowest Atlantic pressure on record. #Maria at 909mb is lowest since Dean in 2007. All devastating storms on this list. pic.twitter.com/lhQAsdeukL — Eric Fisher (@ericfisher) September 19, 2017
Here's a list of lowest Atlantic pressure on record. #Maria at 909mb is lowest since Dean in 2007. All devastating storms on this list. pic.twitter.com/lhQAsdeukLHere's a list of lowest Atlantic pressure on record. #Maria at 909mb is lowest since Dean in 2007. All devastating storms on this list. pic.twitter.com/lhQAsdeukL
— Eric Fisher (@ericfisher) September 19, 2017— Eric Fisher (@ericfisher) September 19, 2017
At 9:35 p.m. Monday, Maria became the the first Category 5 storm to strike Dominica in recorded history, leaving behind widespread destruction.At 9:35 p.m. Monday, Maria became the the first Category 5 storm to strike Dominica in recorded history, leaving behind widespread destruction.
[‘We have lost all what money can buy’: Hurricane Maria devastates Dominica][‘We have lost all what money can buy’: Hurricane Maria devastates Dominica]
In just 18 hours Monday, the storm strengthened from a minimal Category 1 storm to a Category 5 monster. Its pressure dropped 52 millibars in 18 hours, “one of the fastest deepening rates on record behind Ike, Rita, Gilbert, & Wilma,” tweeted Tomer Burg, at atmospheric science graduate student at SUNY-Albany.In just 18 hours Monday, the storm strengthened from a minimal Category 1 storm to a Category 5 monster. Its pressure dropped 52 millibars in 18 hours, “one of the fastest deepening rates on record behind Ike, Rita, Gilbert, & Wilma,” tweeted Tomer Burg, at atmospheric science graduate student at SUNY-Albany.
Maria is the latest powerhouse storm in what has become a hyperactive hurricane season.Maria is the latest powerhouse storm in what has become a hyperactive hurricane season.
“2017 joins 1932, 1933, 1961, 2005, and 2007 as only years with multiple Cat 5s,” tweeted MDA Federal, a meteorological consulting firm.“2017 joins 1932, 1933, 1961, 2005, and 2007 as only years with multiple Cat 5s,” tweeted MDA Federal, a meteorological consulting firm.
With Maria, the 2017 hurricane season has already featured four Category 4 or stronger storms; this has only happened four previous times by Sept. 18.With Maria, the 2017 hurricane season has already featured four Category 4 or stronger storms; this has only happened four previous times by Sept. 18.
Hurricane JoseHurricane Jose
While Maria is the far more dangerous storm, Jose maintains low-end hurricane winds of 75 mph. Positioned 285 miles south-southwest of Nantucket, Mass. at 5 p.m., it’s drifting north-northeast at 8 mph.While Maria is the far more dangerous storm, Jose maintains low-end hurricane winds of 75 mph. Positioned 285 miles south-southwest of Nantucket, Mass. at 5 p.m., it’s drifting north-northeast at 8 mph.
Tropical storm warnings cover the coast eastern Massachusetts, where peak wind gusts could reach 60 mph on Wednesday along with 2 to 4 inches of rain. These winds could cause scattered power outages.Tropical storm warnings cover the coast eastern Massachusetts, where peak wind gusts could reach 60 mph on Wednesday along with 2 to 4 inches of rain. These winds could cause scattered power outages.
Depending on its exact track, tropical storm conditions could also affect areas slightly further south down to Long Island, which is under a tropical storm watch.Depending on its exact track, tropical storm conditions could also affect areas slightly further south down to Long Island, which is under a tropical storm watch.
Along much of the Mid-Atlantic and Northeast coast, minor to moderate coastal flooding is possible as the storm pushes ocean water ashore — up to 1 to 2 feet above normally dry land at high tide. All along these shores, dangerous surf and rip currents are expected.Along much of the Mid-Atlantic and Northeast coast, minor to moderate coastal flooding is possible as the storm pushes ocean water ashore — up to 1 to 2 feet above normally dry land at high tide. All along these shores, dangerous surf and rip currents are expected.
Rough surf along the boardwalk in Rehoboth Beach Delaware. Category 1 Hurricane Jose remains off the coast impacting coast from NC to DE. pic.twitter.com/vf6VvGicsx — Suzanne Kennedy (@ABC7Suzanne) September 19, 2017Rough surf along the boardwalk in Rehoboth Beach Delaware. Category 1 Hurricane Jose remains off the coast impacting coast from NC to DE. pic.twitter.com/vf6VvGicsx — Suzanne Kennedy (@ABC7Suzanne) September 19, 2017
Rough surf along the boardwalk in Rehoboth Beach Delaware. Category 1 Hurricane Jose remains off the coast impacting coast from NC to DE. pic.twitter.com/vf6VvGicsxRough surf along the boardwalk in Rehoboth Beach Delaware. Category 1 Hurricane Jose remains off the coast impacting coast from NC to DE. pic.twitter.com/vf6VvGicsx
— Suzanne Kennedy (@ABC7Suzanne) September 19, 2017— Suzanne Kennedy (@ABC7Suzanne) September 19, 2017
The National Weather Service says that in coastal Rhode Island and Massachusetts, 15-foot waves could pound exposed beaches, causing severe erosion.The National Weather Service says that in coastal Rhode Island and Massachusetts, 15-foot waves could pound exposed beaches, causing severe erosion.
Link: Tropical storm impact statement from National Weather Service for eastern New EnglandLink: Tropical storm impact statement from National Weather Service for eastern New England