This article is from the source 'washpo' and was first published or seen on . It last changed over 40 days ago and won't be checked again for changes.

You can find the current article at its original source at https://www.washingtonpost.com/national/strengthening-hurricane-maria-a-threat-to-irma-hit-caribbean/2017/09/17/9099070a-9c08-11e7-b2a7-bc70b6f98089_story.html

The article has changed 39 times. There is an RSS feed of changes available.

Version 17 Version 18
‘Extremely dangerous’ Hurricane Maria churns toward Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico; Jose to scrape Northeast coast Category 5 Hurricane Maria is a disaster scenario for Puerto Rico and Virgin Islands; Jose to brush by New England
(35 minutes later)
(This article, originally published at noon Monday, was last updated at 8 a.m. Tuesday with the latest information from the National Hurricane Center advisories.) After decimating the island of Dominica, Category 5 Hurricane Maria is plowing toward the U.S. Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico — the next target of its assault. Tuesday night and Wednesday, the storm will inflict a “potentially catastrophic” combination of destructive winds up to 160 mph, coastal inundation from surging ocean waters, and tremendous rainfall.
The wicked 2017 hurricane season began delivering more punishing blows Tuesday as Hurricane Maria raked across the Caribbean with “potentially catastrophic” winds of 160 mph. To the north, Hurricane Jose churned on a path to brush the Northeast coast with raging surf and potentially damaging gusts. “This is going to impact all of Puerto Rico with a force and violence that we haven’t seen for several generations,” Puerto Rican Gov. Ricardo Rosselló told the Associated Press. “We’re going to lose a lot of infrastructure in Puerto Rico. We’re going to have to rebuild.”
Maria strengthened to the highest-level Category 5 on Tuesday after making landfall on the island of Dominica. The storm carries the potential to cause widespread destruction along its path from the central Lesser Antilles through Puerto Rico, including some areas battered earlier this month by the huge Hurricane Irma. The National Hurricane Center urged those residing in the Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico to rush preparations to completion.
“Maria is forecast to remain an extremely dangerous Category 4 or 5 hurricane while it approaches the Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico,” the National Hurricane Center said Tuesday. Hurricane Jose, while a formidable storm, is predicted to bring disruptive but far less severe effects to coastal areas in the Northeast U.S. Moderate rainfall, minor to moderate coastal flooding and pockets of damaging wind are possible from eastern Long Island to eastern Massachusetts.
Jose is capable of producing coastal flooding and pockets of damaging wind from eastern Long Island to coastal Massachusetts, its effects are most likely to resemble those of a strong nor’easter — rather than a devastating hurricane. Hurricane Maria
This storm has rapidly intensified which is a potentially disastrous scenario for the islands it will sweep across. At 9:35 p.m. Monday, the storm made landfall in Dominica, causing widespread damage as it plowed west-northwest at 9 mph. It was the first Category 5 storm to strike Dominica in recorded history. At 11 a.m., Maria was positioned 150 miles southeast of St. Croix and was churning to the west-northwest at 10 mph. Hurricane warnings cover the U.S. and British Virgin Islands as well as Puerto Rico.
The country’s prime minister, Roosevelt Skerrit, said in a Facebook post that “We have lost all that money can buy.” Fluctuations in the storm’s intensity are possible as it approaches the Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico, but it will be passing over very warm ocean water likely to maintain Maria at Category 4 or 5 strength.
“My focus now is in rescuing the trapped and securing medical assistance for the injured. We will need help, my friend, we will need help of all kinds,” he added. Tropical storm conditions could reach the U.S. Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico on Tuesday afternoon and night before the core of the storm and its destructive winds arrive early Wednesday. Because the storm is a relatively slow mover, this region can expect extreme hurricane conditions for an extended duration.
The hurricane center said fluctuations in intensity are possible as the storm makes its way to the Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico Tuesday night into Wednesday. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 30 miles from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 125 miles. The effects forecast by the National Weather Service over Puerto Rico and the U.S. Virgin Islands are dire, and its warning statement carried an apocalyptic tone. It says to expect “catastrophic damage” from winds to 160 mph, including “structural damage to sturdy buildings, some with complete roof and wall failures.” It warns that “locations may be uninhabitable for weeks or months.”
At 8 a.m. Tuesday, the storm was positioned 170 miles southeast of St. Croix moving to the west-northwest at 9 mph. It also predicts “devastating to catastrophic flooding” from rainfall amounts of 12 to 18 inches, with isolated totals exceeding 25 inches. It says the rain may “prompt numerous evacuations and rescues” and “enter numerous structures within multiple communities.” Then it adds that streets and parking lots may “become rivers of raging water” and warns some structures will become “uninhabitable or washed away.”
On Monday, the storm cut across not only Dominica but also Martinique, French Guadeloupe and St. Lucia, where hurricane warnings were in effect. It was also passing close to and affecting St. Kitts, Nevis, and Montserrat, under hurricane warnings, but perhaps positioned far enough north of the storm to miss its brunt. Along the coast, the Weather Service describes”extensive impacts” from a “life-threatening” storm surge at the coast, reaching 6 to 9 feet above normally dry land. The highest storm surge is likely to occur just north and northeast of where the center makes landfall, which could target southeast Puerto Rico, and the south shore of St. Croix.
The worst part of the storm was likely to pass a good deal south of beleaguered Barbuda and Antigua, reeling from Hurricane Irma, but they could still get brushed by some strong wind gusts and heavy showers. In the areas hit hardest by storm surge, the Weather Service describes these effects: “Large areas of deep inundation with storm surge flooding accentuated by battering waves. Structural damage to buildings, with several washing away. Damage compounded by floating debris. Locations may be uninhabitable for an extended period.”
On Tuesday, Maria is predicted to mostly pass through a patch of the Caribbean free of islands before potentially closing in on St. Croix, now under a hurricane warning, late in the day or at night. This island was one of the few Virgin Islands that was spared Irma’s wrath, but may well get hammered by Maria. Link: National Weather Service Local Hurricane Statement for Puerto Rico and the U.S. Virgin Islands
The other U.S. Virgin Islands as well as the British Virgin Islands will also need to carefully monitor and prepare for Maria. While they may remain north of its most severe effects, they could easily face hurricane conditions The projected storm track is such that the most severe conditions may target St. Croix and southeast Puerto Rico. But the storm is expansive enough that small wobbles could bring devastating effects farther to the north and west, including over the same areas hardest hit by Hurricane Irma, such as St. Thomas and St. John in the U.S. Virgin Islands and the entirety of the British Virgin Islands. And even if these islands remain north of the storm’s core, a dangerous storm surge of up to 7 to 11 feet above normally dry land is possible.
By Wednesday, the storm is likely to pass very close to or directly affect Puerto Rico from southeast to northwest. A hurricane has not made landfall in Puerto Rico since Georges in 1998. Puerto Rico is very vulnerable to hurricanes, but one has not made landfall there since Georges in 1998. It just missed the worst of Irma, which scraped along its north shore, but an estimated 1 million people lost electricity because of its fragile power infrastructure. Before Irma struck, officials warned some areas could be without power for months.
Just one Category 5 hurricane has hit Puerto Rico in recorded history, back in 1928; Maria could become the second if it maintains its strength. The last time a Category 4 storm struck the island was in 1932.
Only four recorded Category 4 or stronger hurricanes have made landfall on Puerto Rico. #Maria is threatening to be the fifth. #MariaPR pic.twitter.com/hrXkB1s2g1 — Michael Lowry (@MichaelRLowry) September 18, 2017Only four recorded Category 4 or stronger hurricanes have made landfall on Puerto Rico. #Maria is threatening to be the fifth. #MariaPR pic.twitter.com/hrXkB1s2g1 — Michael Lowry (@MichaelRLowry) September 18, 2017
Only four recorded Category 4 or stronger hurricanes have made landfall on Puerto Rico. #Maria is threatening to be the fifth. #MariaPR pic.twitter.com/hrXkB1s2g1Only four recorded Category 4 or stronger hurricanes have made landfall on Puerto Rico. #Maria is threatening to be the fifth. #MariaPR pic.twitter.com/hrXkB1s2g1
— Michael Lowry (@MichaelRLowry) September 18, 2017— Michael Lowry (@MichaelRLowry) September 18, 2017
Just one Category 5 hurricane has hit Puerto Rico in recorded history; Maria could become the second if it maintains its strength. The last Category 4 storm to strike the island occurred in 1932. Effects on the Dominican Republic, Turks and Caicos and Southeast Bahamas
The islands directly affected by the storm’s core face the likelihood of destructive winds of 120 to 160 mph and 12 to 18 inches of rain (with isolated totals of 20-25 inches, especially in high terrain), which will cause life-threatening flash floods and mudslides. By Wednesday night and through Thursday, the storm should be exiting Puerto Rico and is forecast to parallel the north shore of the Dominican Republic — also hard hit by Irma. It is under a hurricane watch.
A devastating storm surge of at least 6 to 9 feet above normally dry ground is likely to target coastlines positioned just north-northeast of the storm center — which could include the south shores of St. Croix and southeast Puerto Rico. On Friday, the hurricane is expected to come close to the Turks and Caicos and southeast Bahamas, which were also ravaged by Irma.
On Friday, the hurricane may come close to the Turks and Caicos and southeast Bahamas, which were ravaged by Irma. Beyond that point, Maria’s path becomes more uncertain. Some models suggest it could find an escape route out to sea, remaining offshore from the East Coast, but it is way too early to sound the all-clear. U.S. effects
With Maria, the 2017 hurricane season has already featured four Category 4 or stronger storms; this has only happened four previous times by Sept. 18. After the storm passes the Southeast Bahamas, some models suggest it could find an escape route out to sea, remaining offshore from the East Coast, but it is way too early to sound the all-clear.
“2017 joins 1932, 1933, 1961, 2005, and 2007 as only years with multiple Cat 5s; likely to join 2007 as the only with multiple Cat 5 landfalls,” tweeted MDA Federal, a meteorological consulting firm. Hurricane Jose may help in keeping Maria away from the U.S. mainland by drawing it to the northeast. However, if Jose weakens too quickly, Maria could drift closer to the U.S. coast.
2017 is the first hurricane season with two Category 5 storms since 2007. Even if Maria remains just offshore along the East Coast, dangerous surf and rip currents are likely next week.
Jose, which is losing some of its tropical characteristics, is expected to behave like a strong nor’easter along the coast of the Northeast, from near Long Island to eastern Massachusetts. Maria’s place in history and this hurricane season in perspective
The tropical storm warning is in effect for coastal Rhode Island and eastern Massachusetts, the areas most likely to be substantially impacted by Jose. A tropical storm watch continues for areas to the south down to eastern Long Island. Farther south, along the New Jersey and Delaware coastline, the tropical storm watch was dropped Monday night. At 9:35 p.m. Monday, Maria became the the first Category 5 storm to strike Dominica in recorded history, leaving behind widespread destruction.
The storm, positioned 240 miles east-northeast of Cape Hatteras, N.C., was headed north at 9 mph at 5 a.m. Tuesday. It is expected to turn northeast tonight. The storm’s peak winds were around 75 mph and expected to remain at that intensity before gradually weakening on Wednesday. [‘We have lost all what money can buy’: Hurricane Maria devastates Dominica]
The Hurricane Center said tropical storm-force winds could begin in coastal sections of the Northeast as soon as Tuesday and Tuesday night. Moderate coastal flooding is expected with water rising up to one to three feet above normally dry land at high tide. Because the storm is a slow-mover, beaches will be assaulted for an extended duration, leading to the prospect of severe erosion. In just 18 hours Monday, the storm strengthened from a minimal Category 1 storm to a Category 5 monster. Its pressure dropped 52 millibars in 18 hours, “one of the fastest deepening rates on record behind Ike, Rita, Gilbert, & Wilma,” tweeted Tomer Burg, at atmospheric science graduate student at SUNY-Albany.
The center of the storm is forecast to pass well offshore of the Delmarva Peninsula later today, pass, well to the east of the New Jersey coast on Wednesday, and pass offshore of southeastern Massachusetts by Thursday. Maria is the latest powerhouse storm in what has become a hyperactive hurricane season.
The worst conditions are likely from eastern Long Island to eastern Massachusetts on Wednesday when these areas may get battered by the combination of heavy rain, damaging wind gusts to hurricane-force, and coastal flooding. “2017 joins 1932, 1933, 1961, 2005, and 2007 as only years with multiple Cat 5s,” tweeted MDA Federal, a meteorological consulting firm.
“Total [rain] accumulations of 3 to 5 inches are expected over eastern Long Island, southeast Connecticut, southern Rhode Island, and southeast Massachusetts, including Martha’s Vineyard and Nantucket,” the hurricane center said. With Maria, the 2017 hurricane season has already featured four Category 4 or stronger storms; this has only happened four previous times by Sept. 18.
Links: Local hurricane statements for Delmarva/New Jersey shore | New York/Long Island coastal areas | eastern New England Hurricane Jose
It’s important to note that small changes in Jose’s track could increase or decrease the intensity of effects and how far they expand inland. Jose maintains low-end hurricane winds of 75 mph. Positioned 230 miles east-northeast of Cape Hatteras, N.C. at 11 a.m., it’s drifting north at 7 mph.
“Any deviation to the left of the Hurricane Center forecast track would increase the likelihood and magnitude of impacts elsewhere along the U.S. east coast from Delaware to southern New England,” the Hurricane Center said. Tropical storm warnings cover the coast of Rhode Island and eastern Massachusetts, where peak wind gusts could reach 60 mph on Wednesday along with 2 to 4 inches of rain. These winds could cause scattered power outages.
Irrespective of its track, dangerous surf and rip currents are expected along the East Coast through much of the week. Depending on its exact track, tropical storm conditions could also affect areas slightly further south down to Long Island, which is under a tropical storm watch.
Brian Murphy and Colis Ferguson contributed to this report. Along much of the Mid-Atlantic and Northeast coast, minor to moderate coastal flooding is possible as the storm pushes ocean water ashore — up to 1 to 2 feet above normally dry land at high tide. All along these shores, dangerous surf and rip currents are expected.
Rough surf along the boardwalk in Rehoboth Beach Delaware. Category 1 Hurricane Jose remains off the coast impacting coast from NC to DE. pic.twitter.com/vf6VvGicsx — Suzanne Kennedy (@ABC7Suzanne) September 19, 2017
Rough surf along the boardwalk in Rehoboth Beach Delaware. Category 1 Hurricane Jose remains off the coast impacting coast from NC to DE. pic.twitter.com/vf6VvGicsx
— Suzanne Kennedy (@ABC7Suzanne) September 19, 2017
The National Weather Service says that in coastal Rhode Island and Massachusetts, 15-foot waves could pound exposed beaches, causing severe erosion.
Link: Tropical storm impact statement from National Weather Service for eastern New England