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| Asia's glaciers to shrink by a third by 2100, threatening water supply of millions | Asia's glaciers to shrink by a third by 2100, threatening water supply of millions |
| (4 months later) | |
| High mountains of Asia hold biggest store of frozen water outside the poles and feed many of the world’s great rivers, including the Ganges | |
| Agence France-Presse | |
| Thu 14 Sep 2017 01.45 BST | |
| Last modified on Thu 14 Sep 2017 02.15 BST | |
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| Asia’s mountain glaciers will lose at least a third of their mass through global warming by the century’s end, with dire consequences for millions of people who rely on them for fresh water, researchers have said. | Asia’s mountain glaciers will lose at least a third of their mass through global warming by the century’s end, with dire consequences for millions of people who rely on them for fresh water, researchers have said. |
| This is a best-case scenario, based on the assumption that the world manages to limit average global warming to 1.5C (2.7F) over pre-industrial levels, a team wrote in the journal Nature. | This is a best-case scenario, based on the assumption that the world manages to limit average global warming to 1.5C (2.7F) over pre-industrial levels, a team wrote in the journal Nature. |
| “To meet the 1.5C target will be a task of unprecedented difficulty,” the researchers said, “and even then, 36% (give or take 7%) of the ice mass in the high mountains of Asia is projected to be lost” by 2100. | “To meet the 1.5C target will be a task of unprecedented difficulty,” the researchers said, “and even then, 36% (give or take 7%) of the ice mass in the high mountains of Asia is projected to be lost” by 2100. |
| With warming of 3.5C, 4C and 6C respectively, Asian glacier losses could amount to 49%, 51% or 65% by the end of the century, according to the team’s modelling study. | With warming of 3.5C, 4C and 6C respectively, Asian glacier losses could amount to 49%, 51% or 65% by the end of the century, according to the team’s modelling study. |
| The high mountains of Asia comprise a geographical region surrounding the Tibetan plateau, holding the biggest store of frozen water outside the poles. | The high mountains of Asia comprise a geographical region surrounding the Tibetan plateau, holding the biggest store of frozen water outside the poles. |
| It feeds many of the world’s great rivers, including the Ganges, the Indus and the Brahmaputra, on which hundreds of millions of people depend. | It feeds many of the world’s great rivers, including the Ganges, the Indus and the Brahmaputra, on which hundreds of millions of people depend. |
| Nearly 200 nations adopted the Paris agreement in 2015, which sets the goal of limiting warming to a level “well below” 2C, while “pursuing efforts” to achieve a lower ceiling of 1.5C. | Nearly 200 nations adopted the Paris agreement in 2015, which sets the goal of limiting warming to a level “well below” 2C, while “pursuing efforts” to achieve a lower ceiling of 1.5C. |
| Earth’s surface has already warmed by about 1C, according to scientists. | Earth’s surface has already warmed by about 1C, according to scientists. |
| For high warming scenarios, experts predict land-gobbling sea-level rise, worsening storms, more frequent droughts and floods, species loss and disease spread. | For high warming scenarios, experts predict land-gobbling sea-level rise, worsening storms, more frequent droughts and floods, species loss and disease spread. |
| The Asian high mountains, the new study said, were already warming more rapidly than the global average. | The Asian high mountains, the new study said, were already warming more rapidly than the global average. |
| A global temperature rise of 1.5C would mean an average increase in the region of about 2.1C, with differences between mountain ranges – all of which will warm by more than 1.5C. | A global temperature rise of 1.5C would mean an average increase in the region of about 2.1C, with differences between mountain ranges – all of which will warm by more than 1.5C. |
| The Hindu Kush mountain range would warm by about 2.3C and the eastern Himalayas by 1.9C, the study forecast. | The Hindu Kush mountain range would warm by about 2.3C and the eastern Himalayas by 1.9C, the study forecast. |
| “Even if temperatures stabilise at their current level, [glacier] mass loss will continue for decades to come,” the researchers added. | “Even if temperatures stabilise at their current level, [glacier] mass loss will continue for decades to come,” the researchers added. |
| For the high mountain glaciers to survive, “it is essential to minimise the global temperature increase”. | For the high mountain glaciers to survive, “it is essential to minimise the global temperature increase”. |
| Swaths of south Asia and China depend on meltwater from Himalayan glaciers for drinking water, electricity generation and irrigation. | Swaths of south Asia and China depend on meltwater from Himalayan glaciers for drinking water, electricity generation and irrigation. |
| At the same time, the regions are also vulnerable to more intense flooding from accelerated glacier melt, combined with heavier rains and superstorms boosted by global warming. | At the same time, the regions are also vulnerable to more intense flooding from accelerated glacier melt, combined with heavier rains and superstorms boosted by global warming. |
| A study in July in the journal Nature Climate Change said there was only a 5% chance of holding global warming under 2C. For 1.5C, the odds were about 1%. | A study in July in the journal Nature Climate Change said there was only a 5% chance of holding global warming under 2C. For 1.5C, the odds were about 1%. |
| On current trends, some experts project Earth is on track to warm by about 3C. | On current trends, some experts project Earth is on track to warm by about 3C. |
| Glaciers | |
| Tibet | |
| Climate change | |
| Asia Pacific | |
| China | |
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