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| Tories beware: the left have captured the values of the young | Tories beware: the left have captured the values of the young |
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| Last week YouGov published polling that underlined the huge challenge facing the Conservative party among young voters. Labour not only enjoys a 46 percentage point lead among 18- to 24-year-olds (by 65% to 19%), but five times as many of Britain’s newest voters prefer its approach to education to that of the Tories. Jeremy Corbyn’s party is nine times as trusted on the NHS, and is 10 times ahead on the policy issue that stands at the heart of the intergenerational divide: that of housing. | Last week YouGov published polling that underlined the huge challenge facing the Conservative party among young voters. Labour not only enjoys a 46 percentage point lead among 18- to 24-year-olds (by 65% to 19%), but five times as many of Britain’s newest voters prefer its approach to education to that of the Tories. Jeremy Corbyn’s party is nine times as trusted on the NHS, and is 10 times ahead on the policy issue that stands at the heart of the intergenerational divide: that of housing. |
| But the news gets worse for the Conservatives. While unpopularity on schools, hospitals and housing could potentially be addressed by radical and popular policy changes (although there’s little sign of them from Theresa May’s government), it’s much harder to overcome differences in fundamental values. New polling that has been undertaken by ComRes for UnHerd suggests that the values of millennials and the post-millennial Generation Z could hardly be more different from those held by their grandparents. | But the news gets worse for the Conservatives. While unpopularity on schools, hospitals and housing could potentially be addressed by radical and popular policy changes (although there’s little sign of them from Theresa May’s government), it’s much harder to overcome differences in fundamental values. New polling that has been undertaken by ComRes for UnHerd suggests that the values of millennials and the post-millennial Generation Z could hardly be more different from those held by their grandparents. |
| Four issues stand out, in particular, where conservative-friendly attitudes among the over-65s contrast markedly with what Americans would call “progressive” attitudes among 18- to 24-year-olds. On the question of whether freedom is more important than equality, 87% of older Britons choose freedom and just 13% choose equality. Among the young it’s a much, much closer 60% to 40% favouring freedom (and the inequality it can sometimes produce). | Four issues stand out, in particular, where conservative-friendly attitudes among the over-65s contrast markedly with what Americans would call “progressive” attitudes among 18- to 24-year-olds. On the question of whether freedom is more important than equality, 87% of older Britons choose freedom and just 13% choose equality. Among the young it’s a much, much closer 60% to 40% favouring freedom (and the inequality it can sometimes produce). |
| Two-thirds of over-65s think, on balance, that Britain does more good abroad than harm. Among the young a narrow, Brexit-sized 52% to 48% think the country is a force for harm – perhaps helping to explain why they want their country constrained by membership of a supranational body, such as the EU. | Two-thirds of over-65s think, on balance, that Britain does more good abroad than harm. Among the young a narrow, Brexit-sized 52% to 48% think the country is a force for harm – perhaps helping to explain why they want their country constrained by membership of a supranational body, such as the EU. |
| Three-quarters of older Britons agree that we should have more Christianity in the nation; some 61% of 18- to 24-year-olds want less – from churches they rarely attend, and which, through the prism of news, appear to be trapped in outdated attitudes towards women and gay people. | Three-quarters of older Britons agree that we should have more Christianity in the nation; some 61% of 18- to 24-year-olds want less – from churches they rarely attend, and which, through the prism of news, appear to be trapped in outdated attitudes towards women and gay people. |
| And, finally, who is responsible for crime? By four to one, senior citizens blame “bad moral choices” by individuals who perpetrate criminal acts rather than “unfair and unequal social conditions”. The young, in contrast, are almost evenly split between being tough on crime and being tough on the causes of crime – as Tony Blair memorably argued: 51% see crime as largely a moral failing; 49% see it as a predominantly social one. | And, finally, who is responsible for crime? By four to one, senior citizens blame “bad moral choices” by individuals who perpetrate criminal acts rather than “unfair and unequal social conditions”. The young, in contrast, are almost evenly split between being tough on crime and being tough on the causes of crime – as Tony Blair memorably argued: 51% see crime as largely a moral failing; 49% see it as a predominantly social one. |
| The right’s own once powerful generators of values – including the Tory press and the church – are of declining power | The right’s own once powerful generators of values – including the Tory press and the church – are of declining power |
| The gulf in attitudes can partly be blamed on the times through which different generations have had their formative years. A generation living in the shadow of the Iraq war will almost inevitably not have such a positive view of western power as the generation that saw the cold war end with the fall of the Berlin Wall. | The gulf in attitudes can partly be blamed on the times through which different generations have had their formative years. A generation living in the shadow of the Iraq war will almost inevitably not have such a positive view of western power as the generation that saw the cold war end with the fall of the Berlin Wall. |
| I would suggest, however, that the problem for Conservatives is a deeper one. Large percentages of teachers in schools, academics in universities, journalists, playwrights and other ideas-generators lean towards left, liberal perspectives. While the left has marched through the institutions of learning, entertainment and the arts, taking over the commanding heights of culture, the right’s own once powerful generators of values – including the Tory press and the church – are of declining power. | I would suggest, however, that the problem for Conservatives is a deeper one. Large percentages of teachers in schools, academics in universities, journalists, playwrights and other ideas-generators lean towards left, liberal perspectives. While the left has marched through the institutions of learning, entertainment and the arts, taking over the commanding heights of culture, the right’s own once powerful generators of values – including the Tory press and the church – are of declining power. |
| Turning all this around will be much harder than the task that confronted the Tories in 1979, when the commanding heights of the economy were in hostile hands. No equivalent of the privatisation programme is at hand. The right has lost the battle for control of the “upstream” institutions that form tomorrow’s thinking on multiple fronts. | Turning all this around will be much harder than the task that confronted the Tories in 1979, when the commanding heights of the economy were in hostile hands. No equivalent of the privatisation programme is at hand. The right has lost the battle for control of the “upstream” institutions that form tomorrow’s thinking on multiple fronts. |
| Ever increasing state funding of the voluntary sector, for instance, has made charities more and more like the state and less and less independent minded. Conservatives have let the left dominate the public appointments game – failing to promote their own people to positions of influence in museums, regulators and other quangos. | Ever increasing state funding of the voluntary sector, for instance, has made charities more and more like the state and less and less independent minded. Conservatives have let the left dominate the public appointments game – failing to promote their own people to positions of influence in museums, regulators and other quangos. |
| There has been a failure, for instance, to honour and promote conservative thinkers such as Roger Scruton (until very recently). Centre-right thinktanks that once largely served conservative philosophy have become the creatures of big business. Tories have also missed big opportunities to build, for instance, a museum that remembers the victims of communism. | There has been a failure, for instance, to honour and promote conservative thinkers such as Roger Scruton (until very recently). Centre-right thinktanks that once largely served conservative philosophy have become the creatures of big business. Tories have also missed big opportunities to build, for instance, a museum that remembers the victims of communism. |
| Tories determined to remain optimistic could hold on to Margaret Thatcher’s dictum that the facts of life are conservative. By that, she meant that there were limits to how much a government could raise taxes without damaging the economy. David Willetts, the two-brained former Tory minister, once joked that a conservative was a libertarian with children. And certainly, as young people get older, and their own kids experiment with drugs or are the victims of muggers, they themselves get “mugged by reality”, and become more conservative in their attitudes to law and order and social structure. | Tories determined to remain optimistic could hold on to Margaret Thatcher’s dictum that the facts of life are conservative. By that, she meant that there were limits to how much a government could raise taxes without damaging the economy. David Willetts, the two-brained former Tory minister, once joked that a conservative was a libertarian with children. And certainly, as young people get older, and their own kids experiment with drugs or are the victims of muggers, they themselves get “mugged by reality”, and become more conservative in their attitudes to law and order and social structure. |
| That gravitational downwards pull on liberalism will take time, however. Meanwhile, the schools, universities and ideas-generating powers in social media are continuing to shape young minds in liberal, progressive ways. Until it faces up to the cultural onslaught on everything it holds dear, conservatism is in more trouble than it realises. | That gravitational downwards pull on liberalism will take time, however. Meanwhile, the schools, universities and ideas-generating powers in social media are continuing to shape young minds in liberal, progressive ways. Until it faces up to the cultural onslaught on everything it holds dear, conservatism is in more trouble than it realises. |
| • Tim Montgomerie is the editor of UnHerd.com | • Tim Montgomerie is the editor of UnHerd.com |