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| How long will Theresa May survive? She’s the very last person to ask | How long will Theresa May survive? She’s the very last person to ask |
| (5 months later) | |
| Her claim that she will lead the Conservatives into the next election is taken seriously by no one in her party | |
| Sun 3 Sep 2017 09.01 BST | |
| First published on Sun 3 Sep 2017 00.05 BST | |
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| Leaders like to think that they can choose their exit, but their exit is almost always decided for them. Even apparent exceptions conform to the rule. I often hear it said that Harold Wilson was the last British prime minister to step down from Number 10 at a time of his own volition. | Leaders like to think that they can choose their exit, but their exit is almost always decided for them. Even apparent exceptions conform to the rule. I often hear it said that Harold Wilson was the last British prime minister to step down from Number 10 at a time of his own volition. |
| That was way back in 1976, more than 40 years ago. He surprised all but the tiny number of friends to whom he had confided his retirement plan by departing two years after he won a general election. Even in his case, there is some ambiguity about whether or not the decision was entirely voluntary. His doctor had detected health issues, which were later diagnosed as cancer of the colon, and he might have been already aware of the early stages of Alzheimer’s disease, even if he did not know the cause. That Labour prime minister was extremely proud of his powers of recall and it seems reasonable to suppose that he would have been the first to notice a fading in his faculties. | That was way back in 1976, more than 40 years ago. He surprised all but the tiny number of friends to whom he had confided his retirement plan by departing two years after he won a general election. Even in his case, there is some ambiguity about whether or not the decision was entirely voluntary. His doctor had detected health issues, which were later diagnosed as cancer of the colon, and he might have been already aware of the early stages of Alzheimer’s disease, even if he did not know the cause. That Labour prime minister was extremely proud of his powers of recall and it seems reasonable to suppose that he would have been the first to notice a fading in his faculties. |
| There is no room for ambiguity about the endings of every one of the people who have since occupied Number 10. In each and every case, they did not get to choose a retirement date. A notice to quit was handed to them by either the country or their colleagues. Jim Callaghan, John Major and Gordon Brown were booted out by voters who had tired of their governments. In a way, that was a kinder fate than that suffered by Tony Blair and Margaret Thatcher, both three-time election winners who were nevertheless shown the door by their own parties. Then there is David Cameron, who is in a unique category as the only British prime minister to have been compelled to quit because he was on the losing side of a referendum result. His reward is to have a posh shed in his garden in which to sit and ponder where it all went wrong. | There is no room for ambiguity about the endings of every one of the people who have since occupied Number 10. In each and every case, they did not get to choose a retirement date. A notice to quit was handed to them by either the country or their colleagues. Jim Callaghan, John Major and Gordon Brown were booted out by voters who had tired of their governments. In a way, that was a kinder fate than that suffered by Tony Blair and Margaret Thatcher, both three-time election winners who were nevertheless shown the door by their own parties. Then there is David Cameron, who is in a unique category as the only British prime minister to have been compelled to quit because he was on the losing side of a referendum result. His reward is to have a posh shed in his garden in which to sit and ponder where it all went wrong. |
| You may recall that, prior to the Brexit vote, Mr Cameron insisted that he would stay on as prime minister whatever the result. He resigned the morning after. Tony Blair wanted to do a full third term, but he got just two years into it before he was supplanted by Gordon Brown. Margaret Thatcher imperiously declared that she planned to go “on and on”, only to be bundled out by her party three years later when Tory MPs concluded that her unpopularity had become terminal. | You may recall that, prior to the Brexit vote, Mr Cameron insisted that he would stay on as prime minister whatever the result. He resigned the morning after. Tony Blair wanted to do a full third term, but he got just two years into it before he was supplanted by Gordon Brown. Margaret Thatcher imperiously declared that she planned to go “on and on”, only to be bundled out by her party three years later when Tory MPs concluded that her unpopularity had become terminal. |
| So the last person we ought to take seriously about the likely longevity of any prime minister is the leader themselves. Their pronouncements on the subject should be taken with a juggernaut of salt. They cannot say how long they will last because they cannot know. They cannot know because it is not in their power to decide. If this is true of leaders with records as formidable as those of Mrs Thatcher and Mr Blair, it is even truer of a leader as enfeebled as Theresa May. | So the last person we ought to take seriously about the likely longevity of any prime minister is the leader themselves. Their pronouncements on the subject should be taken with a juggernaut of salt. They cannot say how long they will last because they cannot know. They cannot know because it is not in their power to decide. If this is true of leaders with records as formidable as those of Mrs Thatcher and Mr Blair, it is even truer of a leader as enfeebled as Theresa May. |
| In the immediate wake of the self-inflicted election debacle, Mrs May saved herself from her furious colleagues by seeking sanctuary in humility. She told them she would remain as leader only for as long as they wanted her there. This was a hazy formula, but it took some of the edge off her party’s wrath by acknowledging her diminished status while also avoiding stamping herself with a precise end date. It led to a rough consensus in the Conservative party that, absent any further major misjudgment or disaster on her part, she would be allowed to eke out an existence at Number 10 until 2019, whereupon she would depart with as much dignity as she could muster. | In the immediate wake of the self-inflicted election debacle, Mrs May saved herself from her furious colleagues by seeking sanctuary in humility. She told them she would remain as leader only for as long as they wanted her there. This was a hazy formula, but it took some of the edge off her party’s wrath by acknowledging her diminished status while also avoiding stamping herself with a precise end date. It led to a rough consensus in the Conservative party that, absent any further major misjudgment or disaster on her part, she would be allowed to eke out an existence at Number 10 until 2019, whereupon she would depart with as much dignity as she could muster. |
| This arrangement was – and still is – regarded as terrible by those Tories who think it a recipe for a rudderless government with a zombie for a leader who lacks the authority to either make a success of Brexit or to pursue a confident domestic agenda. The Tory party’s traditional way of running itself is dictatorship tempered by regicide. They cower before the leader until they decide to kill him or her. By allowing Mrs May to linger in the departure lounge, this traditionally merciless party chose to be feeble. They bought time at the expense of credibility. Mrs May avoided the utter humiliation of being instantly defenestrated and she got to clock up a longer stretch at Number 10. If she does manage to endure until Britain has left the EU, she will acquire some sort of legacy, for good or bad, as the prime minister who presided over Brexit. Her party also bought itself some time; time to think about who should be her successor and how the Tories might rejuvenate themselves before they next face the country. | This arrangement was – and still is – regarded as terrible by those Tories who think it a recipe for a rudderless government with a zombie for a leader who lacks the authority to either make a success of Brexit or to pursue a confident domestic agenda. The Tory party’s traditional way of running itself is dictatorship tempered by regicide. They cower before the leader until they decide to kill him or her. By allowing Mrs May to linger in the departure lounge, this traditionally merciless party chose to be feeble. They bought time at the expense of credibility. Mrs May avoided the utter humiliation of being instantly defenestrated and she got to clock up a longer stretch at Number 10. If she does manage to endure until Britain has left the EU, she will acquire some sort of legacy, for good or bad, as the prime minister who presided over Brexit. Her party also bought itself some time; time to think about who should be her successor and how the Tories might rejuvenate themselves before they next face the country. |
| She crashed the car in June; they are not going to give her the opportunity to burn down the mansion next time around | She crashed the car in June; they are not going to give her the opportunity to burn down the mansion next time around |
| The basis of this truce is brittle and, on the face of things, it was reckless of Mrs May to tug at its fragile fabric during her travels in Japan. Things often go awry when a prime minister is thrust into proximity with a planeload of inquisitive and mischievous journalists. She surprised the accompanying posse of reporters by suggesting that she would lead her party into the next election. “I’m not a quitter,” she told ITV News. She said to the BBC: “I’m here for the long term.” | The basis of this truce is brittle and, on the face of things, it was reckless of Mrs May to tug at its fragile fabric during her travels in Japan. Things often go awry when a prime minister is thrust into proximity with a planeload of inquisitive and mischievous journalists. She surprised the accompanying posse of reporters by suggesting that she would lead her party into the next election. “I’m not a quitter,” she told ITV News. She said to the BBC: “I’m here for the long term.” |
| The response of Conservative MPs has been revealing. A few have reacted with anger. More express incredulity. Some are anxious that Mrs May’s defiant declaration that she has a long-term future will ignite a renewed round of plotting by frustrated aspirants to the crown. But for the most part, Tory MPs seem inclined to just shrug off her statement as not worth arguing with because it is so self-evidently ridiculous. If they thought she meant it, they might be furious. But they don’t, so they aren’t. They don’t believe she will lead them into the next election and they don’t think that she really believes she can either. | The response of Conservative MPs has been revealing. A few have reacted with anger. More express incredulity. Some are anxious that Mrs May’s defiant declaration that she has a long-term future will ignite a renewed round of plotting by frustrated aspirants to the crown. But for the most part, Tory MPs seem inclined to just shrug off her statement as not worth arguing with because it is so self-evidently ridiculous. If they thought she meant it, they might be furious. But they don’t, so they aren’t. They don’t believe she will lead them into the next election and they don’t think that she really believes she can either. |
| The fundamentals of Mrs May’s position have not changed. What was true in June remains just as true now. She called an election when she didn’t have to; she framed it as a referendum on her leadership; she promised that she would enlarge her party’s majority and she wiped it out. She did so because she presented one of the most voter-unfriendly manifestos anyone can remember and fronted a campaign that will be studied for years ahead as an example of how not to fight an election. Tory MPs are never going to forget that, however much she tries to butter them up. Yes, ministers speak a lot more warmly about the new team at Number 10 that has been assembled since the election. Yes, Mrs May has spent the summer interlude endeavouring to charm Tory backbenchers by inviting groups of them up to Chequers. But even the cheapest dates among them are not going to be seduced by a tour of the house, a homemade cake and a glass of prosecco. | The fundamentals of Mrs May’s position have not changed. What was true in June remains just as true now. She called an election when she didn’t have to; she framed it as a referendum on her leadership; she promised that she would enlarge her party’s majority and she wiped it out. She did so because she presented one of the most voter-unfriendly manifestos anyone can remember and fronted a campaign that will be studied for years ahead as an example of how not to fight an election. Tory MPs are never going to forget that, however much she tries to butter them up. Yes, ministers speak a lot more warmly about the new team at Number 10 that has been assembled since the election. Yes, Mrs May has spent the summer interlude endeavouring to charm Tory backbenchers by inviting groups of them up to Chequers. But even the cheapest dates among them are not going to be seduced by a tour of the house, a homemade cake and a glass of prosecco. |
| A much stronger potion than a flute of fizz would be required to obliterate memories of the election debacle. A bit of cake is not going to induce forgiveness of the person they hold most responsible for what happened in June. The Tory party is not going to let Mrs May lead them into the next election barring an event so outlandish that my imagination cannot conceive of it. This is not to say that the Conservatives will necessarily alight on a replacement as leader who will be superior; it is to say that they are not going to risk going into another election led by Mrs May. She crashed the car in June; they are not going to give her the opportunity to burn down the mansion next time around. | A much stronger potion than a flute of fizz would be required to obliterate memories of the election debacle. A bit of cake is not going to induce forgiveness of the person they hold most responsible for what happened in June. The Tory party is not going to let Mrs May lead them into the next election barring an event so outlandish that my imagination cannot conceive of it. This is not to say that the Conservatives will necessarily alight on a replacement as leader who will be superior; it is to say that they are not going to risk going into another election led by Mrs May. She crashed the car in June; they are not going to give her the opportunity to burn down the mansion next time around. |
| She remains in office only because something else that was true immediately after the election remains as true now. Most Conservative MPs think that there can be worse things than having a lame-duck leader. There is no mechanism for organising the succession that does not involve the peril of plunging the Tory party into a bloodbath. The hardline Brexiters are trying to prop her up for fear that their agenda might suffer were she to be replaced by one of the cabinet Remainers. The soft Brexiters are afraid that a leadership contest at this juncture, when the negotiations with the EU are turning acrimonious, might make it even harder for whoever followed Mrs May into Number 10 to deliver the compromises that will be necessary to achieve a tolerable deal. | She remains in office only because something else that was true immediately after the election remains as true now. Most Conservative MPs think that there can be worse things than having a lame-duck leader. There is no mechanism for organising the succession that does not involve the peril of plunging the Tory party into a bloodbath. The hardline Brexiters are trying to prop her up for fear that their agenda might suffer were she to be replaced by one of the cabinet Remainers. The soft Brexiters are afraid that a leadership contest at this juncture, when the negotiations with the EU are turning acrimonious, might make it even harder for whoever followed Mrs May into Number 10 to deliver the compromises that will be necessary to achieve a tolerable deal. |
| There is no consensus about who should replace Mrs May and a lack of broad-based enthusiasm for any of the candidates currently on offer in the cabinet. I often hear calls that the Tories need to “skip a generation”; an inchoate yearning for some sparkling and yet hitherto undetected talent to suddenly emerge to rescue them. Thus Mrs May’s weakness is mirrored by her party’s inability to resolve it. | There is no consensus about who should replace Mrs May and a lack of broad-based enthusiasm for any of the candidates currently on offer in the cabinet. I often hear calls that the Tories need to “skip a generation”; an inchoate yearning for some sparkling and yet hitherto undetected talent to suddenly emerge to rescue them. Thus Mrs May’s weakness is mirrored by her party’s inability to resolve it. |
| There will come a point when something snaps within the gnarled old Tory beast. There will come a point when this stasis is no longer tolerable to the party. I can’t say precisely when Mrs May will make her exit. I can say it won’t be the exit she would have chosen for herself. | There will come a point when something snaps within the gnarled old Tory beast. There will come a point when this stasis is no longer tolerable to the party. I can’t say precisely when Mrs May will make her exit. I can say it won’t be the exit she would have chosen for herself. |
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