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| 'Labour is coming back in Scotland': party predicts revival as Corbyn heads north | 'Labour is coming back in Scotland': party predicts revival as Corbyn heads north |
| (3 days later) | |
| Paul Sweeney, one of Labour’s new Scottish MPs, knows exactly when he first realised the party’s fortunes north of the border might be reviving. | Paul Sweeney, one of Labour’s new Scottish MPs, knows exactly when he first realised the party’s fortunes north of the border might be reviving. |
| He had been out canvassing a month before the June general election in the Scottish National party-held Glasgow North East constituency. “We were in Smithycroft Road, right in the shadow of the Bar-L [Barlinnie prison]. These lads were walking up from an off-sales on the opposite side of the road, maybe six or seven of them, with their carry-outs. They started shouting across the road,” he said. | He had been out canvassing a month before the June general election in the Scottish National party-held Glasgow North East constituency. “We were in Smithycroft Road, right in the shadow of the Bar-L [Barlinnie prison]. These lads were walking up from an off-sales on the opposite side of the road, maybe six or seven of them, with their carry-outs. They started shouting across the road,” he said. |
| Wearing a red rosette, he assumed he was the target. The area voted strongly for independence in the 2014 referendum and Labour faced residual hostility for its opposition. “I did not pick up what they were saying and I thought: ‘Aw, here we go.’” He steeled himself. | Wearing a red rosette, he assumed he was the target. The area voted strongly for independence in the 2014 referendum and Labour faced residual hostility for its opposition. “I did not pick up what they were saying and I thought: ‘Aw, here we go.’” He steeled himself. |
| His election agent put him right, whispering they were shouting support for Labour and Jeremy Corbyn. | His election agent put him right, whispering they were shouting support for Labour and Jeremy Corbyn. |
| Labour went on to win Glasgow North East – the SNP had taken it from Labour in 2015 with a 39% swing – and five other Scottish seats and held on to what had been its one solitary seat, Edinburgh South. | Labour went on to win Glasgow North East – the SNP had taken it from Labour in 2015 with a 39% swing – and five other Scottish seats and held on to what had been its one solitary seat, Edinburgh South. |
| To reach Downing Street, Labour will have to win back many more seats from the SNP. Corbyn is to embark on a five-day Scottish tour on Wednesday to highlight 18 marginals Labour is targeting. The tour will include the Western Isles, Glasgow and towns in Lanarkshire, Lothian and Fife. He will complete his visit with an event at the Edinburgh festival fringe. | To reach Downing Street, Labour will have to win back many more seats from the SNP. Corbyn is to embark on a five-day Scottish tour on Wednesday to highlight 18 marginals Labour is targeting. The tour will include the Western Isles, Glasgow and towns in Lanarkshire, Lothian and Fife. He will complete his visit with an event at the Edinburgh festival fringe. |
| Corbyn’s tour offers a chance to gauge whether Labour gains in June are a blip or whether they mark the start of a full-scale revival. | Corbyn’s tour offers a chance to gauge whether Labour gains in June are a blip or whether they mark the start of a full-scale revival. |
| Labour’s Scottish leader, Kezia Dugdale, said she was hugely optimistic. “I do think we are seeing a revival … The party with the greatest potential to grow is the Labour party.” The first seven seats on Labour’s target list in Scotland, all held by the SNP, would require a swing of less than 1%. | Labour’s Scottish leader, Kezia Dugdale, said she was hugely optimistic. “I do think we are seeing a revival … The party with the greatest potential to grow is the Labour party.” The first seven seats on Labour’s target list in Scotland, all held by the SNP, would require a swing of less than 1%. |
| Dugdale is preparing the party in case there is an autumn election, though she does not believe there will be. | Dugdale is preparing the party in case there is an autumn election, though she does not believe there will be. |
| She has been a strong critic of Corbyn, angering his supporters by saying she did not feel he was capable of either uniting the party or winning a general election. But she said she has not criticised him since July last year. | She has been a strong critic of Corbyn, angering his supporters by saying she did not feel he was capable of either uniting the party or winning a general election. But she said she has not criticised him since July last year. |
| Scotland might seem a softer option for Labour than taking seats in Conservative heartlands in England, but that does not mean it will be easy. | Scotland might seem a softer option for Labour than taking seats in Conservative heartlands in England, but that does not mean it will be easy. |
| Sobering for Labour is that it increased its vote by a meagre 9,860 votes in the election compared with the Scottish Conservatives’ 323,852. | Sobering for Labour is that it increased its vote by a meagre 9,860 votes in the election compared with the Scottish Conservatives’ 323,852. |
| John Curtice, one of the UK’s leading poll analysts and professor of politics at Strathclyde University cautioned against underestimating the strength of the SNP, which took 37% of the vote in the general election and 35 seats. A few points either way could mean feast or famine for the SNP, he said. “Labour will have one hell of a battle on its hands,” Curtice said. | John Curtice, one of the UK’s leading poll analysts and professor of politics at Strathclyde University cautioned against underestimating the strength of the SNP, which took 37% of the vote in the general election and 35 seats. A few points either way could mean feast or famine for the SNP, he said. “Labour will have one hell of a battle on its hands,” Curtice said. |
| He attributed Labour’s Scottish revival in part to the Corbyn effect and sees the resurgence as predating the general election, citing the May council elections when the party lost control of Glasgow city council but at least survived, defying predictions of its imminent demise. | He attributed Labour’s Scottish revival in part to the Corbyn effect and sees the resurgence as predating the general election, citing the May council elections when the party lost control of Glasgow city council but at least survived, defying predictions of its imminent demise. |
| Sweeney, 28, is part of Scottish Labour’s new generation, still finding his way around politics but already regarded within the party as one of its bright hopes. Brought up in Glasgow, he honed his debating skills at Glasgow University, joined the Royal Regiment of Scotland as a reservist, worked in the shipyards and then for the economic development agency, Scottish Enterprise. | Sweeney, 28, is part of Scottish Labour’s new generation, still finding his way around politics but already regarded within the party as one of its bright hopes. Brought up in Glasgow, he honed his debating skills at Glasgow University, joined the Royal Regiment of Scotland as a reservist, worked in the shipyards and then for the economic development agency, Scottish Enterprise. |
| He supported Andy Burnham in the 2015 leadership campaign and adopted a neutral position in 2016. Describing himself as soft-left, he said his decision not to support Corbyn was not down to differences over policy but a belief he would not be able to make the jump from the backbenches to leadership. | He supported Andy Burnham in the 2015 leadership campaign and adopted a neutral position in 2016. Describing himself as soft-left, he said his decision not to support Corbyn was not down to differences over policy but a belief he would not be able to make the jump from the backbenches to leadership. |
| Corbyn did not hold it against him, promoting him after the election to shadow Scottish minister. | Corbyn did not hold it against him, promoting him after the election to shadow Scottish minister. |
| Sweeney feels Labour lacked ambition in Scotland in the general election, concentrating on holding Ian Murray’s solitary seat in Edinburgh rather than recapturing its traditional Labour heartlands. “I felt we ran the Scottish campaign like an Edinburgh South byelection,” he said. | Sweeney feels Labour lacked ambition in Scotland in the general election, concentrating on holding Ian Murray’s solitary seat in Edinburgh rather than recapturing its traditional Labour heartlands. “I felt we ran the Scottish campaign like an Edinburgh South byelection,” he said. |
| Opposed to independence, he argues Labour should devote less time to the Scottish constitutional issue and more on a socialist message to win back Labour voters who deserted the party for the SNP. | Opposed to independence, he argues Labour should devote less time to the Scottish constitutional issue and more on a socialist message to win back Labour voters who deserted the party for the SNP. |
| There is an echo of Sweeney’s argument in Corbyn’s main support base north of the border, the Campaign for Socialism, a left grouping in the Scottish Labour party. Momentum, the Corbyn-supporting group south of the border, has only a small presence in Scotland, where it works in a loose partnership with the Campaign for Socialism. | There is an echo of Sweeney’s argument in Corbyn’s main support base north of the border, the Campaign for Socialism, a left grouping in the Scottish Labour party. Momentum, the Corbyn-supporting group south of the border, has only a small presence in Scotland, where it works in a loose partnership with the Campaign for Socialism. |
| In an analysis of the election results, Lesley Brennan, the vice-chair of Campaign for Socialism, portrayed June as a missed opportunity. She wrote that while across the UK Labour had increased its number of votes by a median of 5,883 for each constituency, its votes in Scotland had increased only by 550. Her conclusion is Labour’s Scottish leadership made a strategic error in concentrating on attacking the SNP and independence rather than the Conservatives and austerity. | |
| The SNP’s Anne McLaughlin, who lost Glasgow North East to Sweeney, warned, like Curtice, against being too hasty to write off her party. “I am disappointed the SNP did not do better, but we are doing better than any other party. If you had said before the 2015 election we would now have 35 seats, people would have laughed.” | The SNP’s Anne McLaughlin, who lost Glasgow North East to Sweeney, warned, like Curtice, against being too hasty to write off her party. “I am disappointed the SNP did not do better, but we are doing better than any other party. If you had said before the 2015 election we would now have 35 seats, people would have laughed.” |
| McLaughlin, who is on the left of her party, is not sure if there is a Labour revival and blames the loss of her seat mainly on the failure of SNP voters to turn out rather than a significant rise in Labour votes. Some former Labour supporters who had switched to the SNP may have opted to remain at home, she said, unable to vote SNP in an election in which Corbyn offered at least a chance of ousting the Conservatives. | McLaughlin, who is on the left of her party, is not sure if there is a Labour revival and blames the loss of her seat mainly on the failure of SNP voters to turn out rather than a significant rise in Labour votes. Some former Labour supporters who had switched to the SNP may have opted to remain at home, she said, unable to vote SNP in an election in which Corbyn offered at least a chance of ousting the Conservatives. |
| The SNP’s last published figure for membership is 120,000, up from 25,642 in 2014, boosted by the independence campaign and opposition to Brexit. Anecdotal evidence suggests many former Labour supporters are not renewing membership and the next figure will show a significant fall. | The SNP’s last published figure for membership is 120,000, up from 25,642 in 2014, boosted by the independence campaign and opposition to Brexit. Anecdotal evidence suggests many former Labour supporters are not renewing membership and the next figure will show a significant fall. |
| Even so, Labour membership by comparison remains modest. Scottish Labour says it has added 1,700 members since the election, bringing it to 30,000. | Even so, Labour membership by comparison remains modest. Scottish Labour says it has added 1,700 members since the election, bringing it to 30,000. |
| Support for Labour in Scotland might wane if there is a clear prospect of the Conservatives winning the next general election. Labour could lose out too if the SNP offers a better prospect for remainers in the aftermath of the post-Brexit negotiations or the first minister, Nicola Sturgeon, chooses to reignite the constitutional issue by pushing ahead with a second independence referendum. | Support for Labour in Scotland might wane if there is a clear prospect of the Conservatives winning the next general election. Labour could lose out too if the SNP offers a better prospect for remainers in the aftermath of the post-Brexit negotiations or the first minister, Nicola Sturgeon, chooses to reignite the constitutional issue by pushing ahead with a second independence referendum. |
| Sweeney expressed confidence that Labour would make more gains next time. | Sweeney expressed confidence that Labour would make more gains next time. |
| “I am optimistic about Labour coming back,” he said. “If we had another week, we would have doubled the number of seats. That is why the SNP is terrified of another election. We will pick up other Glasgow seats, Lanarkshire seats and Lothian seats. I am almost certain of that.” | “I am optimistic about Labour coming back,” he said. “If we had another week, we would have doubled the number of seats. That is why the SNP is terrified of another election. We will pick up other Glasgow seats, Lanarkshire seats and Lothian seats. I am almost certain of that.” |
| • This article was amended on 25 August 2017. The figures quoted by Lesley Brennan were for median increases in votes for UK Labour. |