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| Shoppers 'in the dark' about Brexit effect | Shoppers 'in the dark' about Brexit effect |
| (35 minutes later) | |
| UK shoppers are "completely in the dark" about the effect Brexit will have on their weekly shop, a former Sainsbury's boss has told BBC Panorama. | UK shoppers are "completely in the dark" about the effect Brexit will have on their weekly shop, a former Sainsbury's boss has told BBC Panorama. |
| Justin King, who ran the supermarket for a decade, said the "last thing" any current supermarket boss would reveal was their intention to put up prices. | Justin King, who ran the supermarket for a decade, said the "last thing" any current supermarket boss would reveal was their intention to put up prices. |
| But he added it was "very clear" shoppers would face "higher prices, less choice and poorer quality". | But he added it was "very clear" shoppers would face "higher prices, less choice and poorer quality". |
| The main supermarkets declined to speak to BBC Panorama. | The main supermarkets declined to speak to BBC Panorama. |
| Mr King, who ran Sainsbury's until 2014, said: "Brexit, almost in whatever version it is, will introduce barriers. | Mr King, who ran Sainsbury's until 2014, said: "Brexit, almost in whatever version it is, will introduce barriers. |
| "That makes it less efficient which means all three of those benefits - prices, quality and choice - go backwards." | "That makes it less efficient which means all three of those benefits - prices, quality and choice - go backwards." |
| Food and farming combined are the UK's biggest manufacturing sector and the EU is involved all along the chain - from what grows in British fields to the labels in shops. | Food and farming combined are the UK's biggest manufacturing sector and the EU is involved all along the chain - from what grows in British fields to the labels in shops. |
| The EU also guarantees free trade across the continent and Mr King - who supported Remain - said this frictionless movement kept food prices down. | The EU also guarantees free trade across the continent and Mr King - who supported Remain - said this frictionless movement kept food prices down. |
| Mr King, who has said the weaker pound will push up prices, added that EU membership helped retailers find the best suppliers and markets throughout Europe. | Mr King, who has said the weaker pound will push up prices, added that EU membership helped retailers find the best suppliers and markets throughout Europe. |
| He also said the EU had driven up standards and enabled the UK to get out-of-season vegetables all year round. | He also said the EU had driven up standards and enabled the UK to get out-of-season vegetables all year round. |
| EU tariffs | EU tariffs |
| But manufacturing boss and Vote Leave campaigner John Mills believes the EU keeps prices artificially high for the shopper. | But manufacturing boss and Vote Leave campaigner John Mills believes the EU keeps prices artificially high for the shopper. |
| He said: "Food prices inside the EU vary from food product to food product, but the average is something like 20% higher than they are in the rest of the world - so there is very substantial scope for food prices coming down if we switch sources of supply outside the EU." | He said: "Food prices inside the EU vary from food product to food product, but the average is something like 20% higher than they are in the rest of the world - so there is very substantial scope for food prices coming down if we switch sources of supply outside the EU." |
| Mr Mills, chairman of consumer goods firm JML, said cheaper prices may not mean lower standards. | Mr Mills, chairman of consumer goods firm JML, said cheaper prices may not mean lower standards. |
| He said: "The reason why food prices are higher inside the EU is because they have got tariffs which keep the prices up. | He said: "The reason why food prices are higher inside the EU is because they have got tariffs which keep the prices up. |
| "It's not anything to do with quality - it's due to the institutional arrangements which means the food prices are kept much higher to increase farmers' incomes." | "It's not anything to do with quality - it's due to the institutional arrangements which means the food prices are kept much higher to increase farmers' incomes." |
| 'Scared of imports' | 'Scared of imports' |
| Some British farmers fear that a bad Brexit deal - which does not protect them - could drive them out of business. | Some British farmers fear that a bad Brexit deal - which does not protect them - could drive them out of business. |
| John Davies, a livestock farmer from Powys in Wales, told Panorama: "I'm really scared of imports - produced to completely different standards [with] hormones, you know, feedlot beef, you know - we're based on green and pleasant land, high environmental standards. We really are proud of that." | John Davies, a livestock farmer from Powys in Wales, told Panorama: "I'm really scared of imports - produced to completely different standards [with] hormones, you know, feedlot beef, you know - we're based on green and pleasant land, high environmental standards. We really are proud of that." |
| Feedlots - places where cattle are fattened for slaughter - are common in the US, which is the world's largest beef producer. | Feedlots - places where cattle are fattened for slaughter - are common in the US, which is the world's largest beef producer. |
| It supplies one fifth of the beef eaten around the world. | It supplies one fifth of the beef eaten around the world. |
| But in the UK, less than 1% of the fresh and frozen beef bought last year came from the US, according to the Agriculture and Horticulture Development Board (AHDB). | But in the UK, less than 1% of the fresh and frozen beef bought last year came from the US, according to the Agriculture and Horticulture Development Board (AHDB). |
| Possibly the most controversial difference in livestock farming either side of the Atlantic is the American use of growth hormones, which is banned in the EU. | Possibly the most controversial difference in livestock farming either side of the Atlantic is the American use of growth hormones, which is banned in the EU. |
| The UK is largely self-sufficient when it comes to beef - with home-grown British beef accounting for 76% of purchases last year. | The UK is largely self-sufficient when it comes to beef - with home-grown British beef accounting for 76% of purchases last year. |
| Brexit could change that. | Brexit could change that. |
| Mr Davies said: "Brexit could have a massive effect on our food-producing ability in this nation, that's a key strategic decision to be made." | Mr Davies said: "Brexit could have a massive effect on our food-producing ability in this nation, that's a key strategic decision to be made." |
| The prime minister has already been driving for new deals in America and the UK's special relationship with the US could provide a source of cheap food. | The prime minister has already been driving for new deals in America and the UK's special relationship with the US could provide a source of cheap food. |
| David Trowbridge, president-elect of the Iowa Cattlemen's Association in the US, told BBC Panorama: "We don't want to destroy an industry within another country, but you know... we are very competitive... It's up to your consumers on what they want to pay for the product." | David Trowbridge, president-elect of the Iowa Cattlemen's Association in the US, told BBC Panorama: "We don't want to destroy an industry within another country, but you know... we are very competitive... It's up to your consumers on what they want to pay for the product." |
| In the UK, we spend roughly 8% of our income on food, according to the World Economic Forum. | In the UK, we spend roughly 8% of our income on food, according to the World Economic Forum. |
| Americans spend 6% - less than any other country in the world - and that is partly down to large-scale, cheap and efficient farming. | Americans spend 6% - less than any other country in the world - and that is partly down to large-scale, cheap and efficient farming. |
| 'Once in a lifetime' | 'Once in a lifetime' |
| Other farmers that Panorama spoke to welcomed Brexit. | Other farmers that Panorama spoke to welcomed Brexit. |
| Jacob Anthony, a 24-year-old fifth generation beef and sheep farmer who runs a 700-acre farm in Bridgend, Wales, voted to leave the EU. | Jacob Anthony, a 24-year-old fifth generation beef and sheep farmer who runs a 700-acre farm in Bridgend, Wales, voted to leave the EU. |
| "I'm a young farmer and I'm looking to the future," he said. "I think a lot of us in the industry were not happy with the way the sector was going and I thought it was a once-in-a-lifetime opportunity for realistic change." | "I'm a young farmer and I'm looking to the future," he said. "I think a lot of us in the industry were not happy with the way the sector was going and I thought it was a once-in-a-lifetime opportunity for realistic change." |
| Mr Anthony said leaving the EU would give British farmers a chance to strike new trade deals and push into new emerging markets. | Mr Anthony said leaving the EU would give British farmers a chance to strike new trade deals and push into new emerging markets. |
| Last year, 13% of UK-produced beef was exported, according to the AHDB, whose spokesman said it was largely the bits British shoppers did not want. | Last year, 13% of UK-produced beef was exported, according to the AHDB, whose spokesman said it was largely the bits British shoppers did not want. |
| 'Get on the agenda' | 'Get on the agenda' |
| Conservative MP James Cleverly insists that the UK doesn't "have to just roll over" in Brexit negotiations. | Conservative MP James Cleverly insists that the UK doesn't "have to just roll over" in Brexit negotiations. |
| He said: "We are a highly desirable market. That actually gives us some strength in the negotiations." | He said: "We are a highly desirable market. That actually gives us some strength in the negotiations." |
| For Mr Mills, it is the establishment who "doesn't really like Brexit". | For Mr Mills, it is the establishment who "doesn't really like Brexit". |
| "And they are throwing up difficulties all over the place, which I don't think are going to materialise to anything like the extent to which they claim," he said. | "And they are throwing up difficulties all over the place, which I don't think are going to materialise to anything like the extent to which they claim," he said. |
| Ex-Sainsbury's boss Mr King is concerned, however, that "there has been, in my estimation, almost no conversation about the potential impact of Brexit on the food supply chain by definition". | Ex-Sainsbury's boss Mr King is concerned, however, that "there has been, in my estimation, almost no conversation about the potential impact of Brexit on the food supply chain by definition". |
| He said with less than two years to go until Brexit, "food needs to get on the agenda pretty soon". | He said with less than two years to go until Brexit, "food needs to get on the agenda pretty soon". |
| The government has said little about plans for food and farming after Brexit, and the new Environment Secretary Michael Gove declined to speak to BBC Panorama. | |
| The Department for Environment, Food and Rural Affairs said: "As the secretary of state has made absolutely clear, there will be no diminution or watering down of food standards. | |
| "Leaving the EU provides us with a golden opportunity to develop a new farming and food policy. | |
| "We will remain global leaders in environmental and animal welfare standards, maintain our high quality produce abroad and reduce pressure on the weekly household budget." | |
| Watch BBC Panorama - Britain's Food & Farming: The Brexit Effect on Monday 10th July on BBC1 at 20:30 BST and afterwards on BBC iPlayer. | Watch BBC Panorama - Britain's Food & Farming: The Brexit Effect on Monday 10th July on BBC1 at 20:30 BST and afterwards on BBC iPlayer. |
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