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You can find the current article at its original source at https://www.theguardian.com/business/live/2017/jul/07/markets-shares-bonds-us-jobs-report-uk-trade-data-business-live
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| Markets on edge ahead of US jobs report and UK trade data – business live | Markets on edge ahead of US jobs report and UK trade data – business live |
| (35 minutes later) | |
| 9.14am BST | |
| 09:14 | |
| Factories in the eurozone’s Big Two economies powered on in May, new figure show. | |
| German industrial output jumped by 1.2% month-on-month. That’s the fifth monthly rise in a row, marking the best run since 2010. | |
| German industry is enjoying its best run of growth in over seven years https://t.co/bivk4NWNwb pic.twitter.com/929LpDdQ5R | |
| France did even better, expanding their output by 1.9% after a 0.6% decline in April. | |
| 8.53am BST | |
| 08:53 | |
| In classical market theory, bonds and shares are supposed to move in opposite directions. | |
| The idea is that investors pour money into equities when they’re feeling optimistic, or dump their shares and scurry into fixed-income (bonds) in times of anxiety. | |
| It doesn’t always hold true - especially in a world where central bankers have driven bond prices to record highs. But it’s a decent yardstick. | |
| So, we now have bonds and stock both falling as the markets anticipate higher interest rates. | |
| Naeem Aslam of Think Markets fears that this could mean a correction is on the way.... | |
| Are we heading towards another taper tantrum? Both bonds and equity markets are showing similar pattern- bonds down and equity markets down pic.twitter.com/V0Oj2CpcGj | |
| 8.42am BST | 8.42am BST |
| 08:42 | 08:42 |
| Halifax: House price fell in June | Halifax: House price fell in June |
| Newsflash: UK house prices fell by 1% in June, according to the Halifax’s monthly survey. | Newsflash: UK house prices fell by 1% in June, according to the Halifax’s monthly survey. |
| That’s rather weaker than the 0.2% rise which the City expected, and could be another sign that higher inflation and falling real wages are hitting the economy. | That’s rather weaker than the 0.2% rise which the City expected, and could be another sign that higher inflation and falling real wages are hitting the economy. |
| Over the last three months, prices rose by 2.6% year-on-year -- the weakest rate in more than four years. | Over the last three months, prices rose by 2.6% year-on-year -- the weakest rate in more than four years. |
| Halifax: UK house prices fell 1% in June. Down to 2.6% annual rate of increase. Worrying to think of how things might change when rates rise pic.twitter.com/fFK5FFrowC | Halifax: UK house prices fell 1% in June. Down to 2.6% annual rate of increase. Worrying to think of how things might change when rates rise pic.twitter.com/fFK5FFrowC |
| However, Nationwide’s figures have shown that house prices rose in June, so this monthly data needs to be treated a little cautiously. | |
| Updated | |
| at 8.58am BST | |
| 8.38am BST | 8.38am BST |
| 08:38 | 08:38 |
| Bonds are also suffering from the prospect that central bankers might have finally tired of topping up the punchbowl of monetary policy. | Bonds are also suffering from the prospect that central bankers might have finally tired of topping up the punchbowl of monetary policy. |
| The interest rate on German 10-year bunds is hovering at an 18-month high this morning, while Italian bond yields are at a two-month high. | |
| Bond rout eases a bit. German 10y yields rise 1bp to 0.57%. pic.twitter.com/7OI79rjPMb | Bond rout eases a bit. German 10y yields rise 1bp to 0.57%. pic.twitter.com/7OI79rjPMb |
| It shows how nervous investors are about the prospect of an end to monetary stimulus, after seeing umpteen billions of new pounds, dollars and euros pumped into the system over many years. | It shows how nervous investors are about the prospect of an end to monetary stimulus, after seeing umpteen billions of new pounds, dollars and euros pumped into the system over many years. |
| As Kit Juckes of Societe Generale puts it: | As Kit Juckes of Societe Generale puts it: |
| At the risk of a circular argument, if the ECB signalling a teeney-weeny shift in the direction of travel for monetary policy prompts a big reaction, that does pose the question of how, when or if central bankers can actually escape the gravitational pull downwards from the ZIRP/QE world. | At the risk of a circular argument, if the ECB signalling a teeney-weeny shift in the direction of travel for monetary policy prompts a big reaction, that does pose the question of how, when or if central bankers can actually escape the gravitational pull downwards from the ZIRP/QE world. |
| That’s a question we asked a lot when we entered this mad world. Is the right image one of a man caught in quicksand, or one of a rocket floating aimlessly in space? | That’s a question we asked a lot when we entered this mad world. Is the right image one of a man caught in quicksand, or one of a rocket floating aimlessly in space? |
| Updated | |
| at 8.58am BST | |
| 8.32am BST | 8.32am BST |
| 08:32 | 08:32 |
| European stock markets have dipped in early trading. | European stock markets have dipped in early trading. |
| David Madden of CMC Markets says traders are pondering whether the European Central Bank might tighten monetary policy, as they wait for the US jobs report. | David Madden of CMC Markets says traders are pondering whether the European Central Bank might tighten monetary policy, as they wait for the US jobs report. |
| The very aggressive easing policy [by the ECB] certainly assisted the economic health of the region, but it also pushed up equity markets. Now central bankers are thinking about moving away from an easing bias, it prompted traders to cash in their positions..... | The very aggressive easing policy [by the ECB] certainly assisted the economic health of the region, but it also pushed up equity markets. Now central bankers are thinking about moving away from an easing bias, it prompted traders to cash in their positions..... |
| The non-farm payroll report at 1.30pm will be the highlight of the trading session, and the consensus is for a 179,000 jobs to have been added in June. The unemployment rate is tipped to remain at 4.3%, and average earnings is anticipated to rise from 0.2% to 0.3% on a month on month basis. | The non-farm payroll report at 1.30pm will be the highlight of the trading session, and the consensus is for a 179,000 jobs to have been added in June. The unemployment rate is tipped to remain at 4.3%, and average earnings is anticipated to rise from 0.2% to 0.3% on a month on month basis. |
| 8.23am BST | 8.23am BST |
| 08:23 | 08:23 |
| You can keep tabs on all the G20 action here: | You can keep tabs on all the G20 action here: |
| 8.11am BST | 8.11am BST |
| 08:11 | 08:11 |
| Asian markets hit by central bank worries | Asian markets hit by central bank worries |
| Shares have fallen across Asia today, as traders hunkered down ahead of the US jobs report. | Shares have fallen across Asia today, as traders hunkered down ahead of the US jobs report. |
| In Japan, the Nikkei hit a three-week low – but then recovered some ground after the Bank Of Japan boosted its government bondbuying programme. | In Japan, the Nikkei hit a three-week low – but then recovered some ground after the Bank Of Japan boosted its government bondbuying programme. |
| Australia’s S&P/ASX 200 index shed almost 1%, and there were losses in Hong Kong, South Korea and China too. | Australia’s S&P/ASX 200 index shed almost 1%, and there were losses in Hong Kong, South Korea and China too. |
| Despite the BoJ’s move, the big concern in the markets right now is that central banks are moving towards unwinding their stimulus programme. | Despite the BoJ’s move, the big concern in the markets right now is that central banks are moving towards unwinding their stimulus programme. |
| Yesterday, minutes from the European Central Bank showed that policymakers had discussed dropping its pledge to boost its own bond-buying efforts, if needed. | Yesterday, minutes from the European Central Bank showed that policymakers had discussed dropping its pledge to boost its own bond-buying efforts, if needed. |
| Mike van Dulken of Accendo Markets explains: | Mike van Dulken of Accendo Markets explains: |
| Investors are digesting hawkish ECB minutes and prepping for further withdrawal of global easy money policy; tapering of ECB QE, unwind of Fed’s balance sheet. Maybe even a UK rate hike. | Investors are digesting hawkish ECB minutes and prepping for further withdrawal of global easy money policy; tapering of ECB QE, unwind of Fed’s balance sheet. Maybe even a UK rate hike. |
| 7.54am BST | 7.54am BST |
| 07:54 | 07:54 |
| The agenda: US jobs data | The agenda: US jobs data |
| Good morning, and welcome to our rolling coverage of the world economy, the financial markets, the eurozone and business. | Good morning, and welcome to our rolling coverage of the world economy, the financial markets, the eurozone and business. |
| Investors are edgy today as they brace for a splurge of economic data from both sides of the Atlantic. Bonds and equities are both under some pressure. | Investors are edgy today as they brace for a splurge of economic data from both sides of the Atlantic. Bonds and equities are both under some pressure. |
| It’s Non-Farm Payroll day in the US, when we learn how many Americans joined the labour market last month. The consensus forecast is that the NFP rose by around 179,000 in June, which would show that the economy continues to create jobs at a healthy rate. | It’s Non-Farm Payroll day in the US, when we learn how many Americans joined the labour market last month. The consensus forecast is that the NFP rose by around 179,000 in June, which would show that the economy continues to create jobs at a healthy rate. |
| Average earnings are expected to have picked up last month, pushing the annual rate to 2.6% from 2.5%, while the jobless rate could remain at just 4.3% | Average earnings are expected to have picked up last month, pushing the annual rate to 2.6% from 2.5%, while the jobless rate could remain at just 4.3% |
| US Non-Farm Payroll is one of the top events on the economic calendar for Friday, July 7 pic.twitter.com/824mDfGvcr | US Non-Farm Payroll is one of the top events on the economic calendar for Friday, July 7 pic.twitter.com/824mDfGvcr |
| A weak report might fuel worries that the US economy is slowing; conversely, a really strong report would create more pressure to keep raising interest rates. So there could be some drama when the figures hit the wires at 1.30pm BST. | A weak report might fuel worries that the US economy is slowing; conversely, a really strong report would create more pressure to keep raising interest rates. So there could be some drama when the figures hit the wires at 1.30pm BST. |
| In the UK, we find out how the industrial sector fared in May, and how Britain traded with the rest of the world. | In the UK, we find out how the industrial sector fared in May, and how Britain traded with the rest of the world. |
| Economists predict that UK industrial output rose by 0.5% during the month, up from 0.2% | Economists predict that UK industrial output rose by 0.5% during the month, up from 0.2% |
| They also expect that Britain ran a trade deficit of around £2.5bn with the rest of the world, despite the supposed benefits of a weaker pound. | They also expect that Britain ran a trade deficit of around £2.5bn with the rest of the world, despite the supposed benefits of a weaker pound. |
| City investors will also be watching developments in Hamberg as the G20 leaders meeting gets underway. | City investors will also be watching developments in Hamberg as the G20 leaders meeting gets underway. |
| The key event of the day could be Donald Trump’s first meeting with Vladimir Putin. | The key event of the day could be Donald Trump’s first meeting with Vladimir Putin. |
| Protectionism and climate change are high on the agenda, after Hamburg police broke up protests last night. | Protectionism and climate change are high on the agenda, after Hamburg police broke up protests last night. |
| Analysts at RBC Capital Markets say: | Analysts at RBC Capital Markets say: |
| Though unlikely to move markets, the G20 meeting is expected to have a major focus on trade after the removal of standard language about resisting trade protectionism at the previous finance ministers meeting in March. | Though unlikely to move markets, the G20 meeting is expected to have a major focus on trade after the removal of standard language about resisting trade protectionism at the previous finance ministers meeting in March. |
| Here’s the agenda: | Here’s the agenda: |
| 8.30am: Halifax UK house price survey for June | 8.30am: Halifax UK house price survey for June |
| 9.30am: UK industrial production for May | 9.30am: UK industrial production for May |
| 9.30am: UK trade balance for May | 9.30am: UK trade balance for May |
| 1.30pm: US non-farm payroll for June | 1.30pm: US non-farm payroll for June |