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India set for key nuclear debate India key nuclear debate begins
(about 4 hours later)
India will find out this week whether the country is heading for an early general election. The Indian parliament has begun a debate on a crucial vote of confidence in the Congress party-led ruling coalition government.
The government has been forced to seek a parliamentary vote of confidence in parliament after left-wing parties withdrew their support. The vote follows the withdrawal of support to the government by its left-wing allies in protest against a civilian nuclear deal with the US.
They are protesting against India's controversial nuclear deal with the US. Observers expect that Tuesday's vote following the debate will be close.
A two-day parliamentary debate starts on Monday, with observers expecting the vote to be extremely close, although it remains unclear who might win. If the government loses the vote, India faces early elections and the nuclear deal would probably be scrapped.
After days of political bargaining and arm-twisting, the government and the opposition are heading into the debate still uncertain about who will win. Indian Prime Minister Manmohan Singh told reporters the government would "prove its majority" in parliament.
Political promises have been broken, old enemies have become unlikely allies, and the vote is still on a knife edge. Under the accord, India would gain access to US civilian nuclear technology and fuel in return for opening civilian nuclear facilities to inspection. Nuclear weapons sites would remain off-limits.
Horse-trading 'Tight contest'
The government defends its nuclear energy deal with the United States, arguing that it is in the national interest. The communists fear the accord could give the US too much influence over Indian foreign and nuclear policy.
India would gain access to nuclear fuel and technology from abroad, while some of its facilities would be open to international inspection for the first time. After days of political bargaining and arm-twisting, the government and the opposition are heading into the debate still uncertain about who will win, the BBC's Chris Morris in Delhi says.
With the left pulling out of the governing coalition, the government only has 226 members in the 543-seat parliament, and needs 46 more for a majority.
The Congress party hopes it will be able to replace support given to it by the communists in parliament by receiving the backing of the regional Samajwadi party and other smaller parties.
The Indian media is agog with reports of alleged defections and desertions among MPs ahead of the vote.
"It's snatch-and-dash to the finish," headlined The Times Of India newspaper.
"Vote looks neck and neck," said The Asian Age.
"Contest tightens, situation volatile," reported The Hindu. We wish to warn the government that in case you lose the trust vote, don't try and push the nuclear deal Prakash Karat, Communist leader
Communist leader Prakash Karat said the government should junk the nuclear deal if its loses the vote.
"We wish to warn the government that in case you lose the trust vote, don't try and push the nuclear deal. The country will revolt," he said.
The opposition opposes the deal for a variety of reasons.The opposition opposes the deal for a variety of reasons.
Indian communists simply want no partnership at all with the United States, while the Hindu nationalist party, the BJP, fears that the deal could compromise India's ability to test nuclear weapons in the future.Indian communists simply want no partnership at all with the United States, while the Hindu nationalist party, the BJP, fears that the deal could compromise India's ability to test nuclear weapons in the future.
All these arguments have come to a head less than a year before India has to hold another general election.
And smaller parties, on whom both government and opposition leaders have suddenly lavished attention, have been trying to calculate which side of the political divide suits them best.And smaller parties, on whom both government and opposition leaders have suddenly lavished attention, have been trying to calculate which side of the political divide suits them best.
The result is a vote of confidence which could still go either way. Under pressure
India is under pressure from Washington to sign the accord before the US presidential election in November.
Last week, Indian officials met members of the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA), the world nuclear regulatory body, in Vienna to discuss plans to safeguard India's civilian nuclear facilities.
The IAEA's approval of the plan is a key condition for enacting a nuclear deal between India and the US.
If the IAEA signs the agreement, the deal will go to the 45-nation Nuclear Suppliers Group, which regulates global civilian nuclear trade, for approval.
It must then by approved by the US Congress before President Bush can sign it into law.
Critics of the deal fear assistance to India's civil programme could free-up additional radioactive material for bomb-making purposes.