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French Parliamentary Elections: What to Watch For French Parliamentary Elections: What to Watch For
(35 minutes later)
French voters are going to the polls on Sunday for the second round of important parliamentary elections, one week after President Emmanuel Macron’s party dealt a blow to traditional establishment parties by gaining a commanding lead in the first round.French voters are going to the polls on Sunday for the second round of important parliamentary elections, one week after President Emmanuel Macron’s party dealt a blow to traditional establishment parties by gaining a commanding lead in the first round.
Mr. Macron’s party, La République en Marche (The Republic on the Move), is on track to win an outright majority of seats, which would put the 39-year-old president in a strong position to enact his pro-business agenda.Mr. Macron’s party, La République en Marche (The Republic on the Move), is on track to win an outright majority of seats, which would put the 39-year-old president in a strong position to enact his pro-business agenda.
But over all, the turnout was lower than in past legislative elections. At 5 p.m. local time, it was 35.33 percent, according to the Interior Ministry. Here is what else you need to know, and what to look for. But over all the turnout was lower than in past legislative elections. At 5 p.m. local time, it was 35.33 percent, according to the Interior Ministry.
Here is what else you need to know, and what to look for when polls close at 6 p.m. in much of the country, and as late as 8 p.m. in bigger cities.
The National Assembly, France’s lower house of Parliament, has 577 seats, each representing a district. Although more than 7,800 candidates vied for those seats in the first round, only two candidates — three in one case — are left in each district in this round.The National Assembly, France’s lower house of Parliament, has 577 seats, each representing a district. Although more than 7,800 candidates vied for those seats in the first round, only two candidates — three in one case — are left in each district in this round.
In a given district, whichever candidate gets the majority of votes on Sunday wins the seat. (Fun fact: if two candidates are tied in the number of votes, the older person wins.) Representatives in the National Assembly are elected for five-year terms. In a given district, whichever candidate gets the majority of votes on Sunday wins the seat. (Fun fact: If two candidates are tied in the number of votes, the older person wins.) Representatives in the National Assembly are elected for five-year terms.
Polls open at 8 a.m. and close at 6 p.m. local time. In bigger cities, polls can close as late as 8 p.m., which is when pollsters will publish their first projections of how many seats each party has won. Pollsters will publish their first projections of how many seats each party has won when all of the polls are closed.
Official results will be published throughout the evening on the Interior Ministry website.Official results will be published throughout the evening on the Interior Ministry website.
The National Assembly is the more powerful of France’s two houses of Parliament (the other is the Senate), and it has the final word in passing legislation. Mr. Macron needs a majority to push through his agenda, which includes an overhaul of labor laws, changes in the pension and tax systems, an ambitious ethics bill, and a controversial legalization of security measures currently possible only under the state of emergency.The National Assembly is the more powerful of France’s two houses of Parliament (the other is the Senate), and it has the final word in passing legislation. Mr. Macron needs a majority to push through his agenda, which includes an overhaul of labor laws, changes in the pension and tax systems, an ambitious ethics bill, and a controversial legalization of security measures currently possible only under the state of emergency.
Since 2002, when the timing of legislative elections was changed so that they directly followed the presidential elections, the ballot has served as confirmation of the president’s victory, reliably sending a majority of representatives of the president’s party to Parliament.Since 2002, when the timing of legislative elections was changed so that they directly followed the presidential elections, the ballot has served as confirmation of the president’s victory, reliably sending a majority of representatives of the president’s party to Parliament.
Analysts and pundits had questioned Mr. Macron’s ability to do the same with his newly formed and still inexperienced party, La République en Marche.Analysts and pundits had questioned Mr. Macron’s ability to do the same with his newly formed and still inexperienced party, La République en Marche.
But after a strong showing in the first round by La République en Marche and its centrist ally, the Mouvement Démocrate, when they gathered about 32 percent of the vote, polls predict they will secure upward of 400 seats: much more than the 289 needed for a majority. But after a strong showing in the first round by the party and its centrist ally, the Mouvement Démocrate, when they gathered about 32 percent of the vote, polls predict that they will secure upward of 400 seats — much more than the 289 needed for a majority.
Turnout in the first round was the lowest for legislative elections in France’s modern history. Only about 49 percent of those registered to vote went to the polls, leading some to question the legitimacy, if not the efficacy, of a National Assembly dominated by Mr. Macron’s party.Turnout in the first round was the lowest for legislative elections in France’s modern history. Only about 49 percent of those registered to vote went to the polls, leading some to question the legitimacy, if not the efficacy, of a National Assembly dominated by Mr. Macron’s party.
The turnout at noon on Sunday, 17.75 percent, was far lower than the turnout in 2012 (21.41 percent) and in 2007 (22.89 percent). At 5 p.m. it was 35.33 percent. In 2012, it was 46.42 percent; in 2007, 49.58 percent, the ministry said. The turnout on Sunday was far lower than the turnout in 2012 (46.42 percent) and in 2007 (49.58 percent).
If the polls are correct in predicting a crushing majority for his party, analysts worry that Mr. Macron will have little incentive to compromise with opposition parties or to build coalitions around certain bills, arguing that in the absence of that kind of parliamentary debate, anger from those opposed to certain legislation could spur street protests. A higher turnout would give La République en Marche a stronger mandate in the National Assembly. But it appears that voters opposed to Mr. Macron are discouraged enough to stay home, or that even those favorable to him think the results are a foregone conclusion.
• The level of turnout. If the polls are correct in predicting a majority for his party, analysts worry that Mr. Macron will have little incentive to compromise with opposition parties or to build coalitions around certain bills. In the absence of that kind of parliamentary debate, anger from those opposed to certain legislation could spur street protests.
A higher turnout would give La République en Marche a stronger mandate in the National Assembly, but turnout could remain low if voters opposed to Mr. Macron are discouraged enough to stay home, or even if those favorable to him think the results are a foregone conclusion. The traditional parties that have governed much of France’s political life for the past 50 years — the Socialists on the left and the Republicans (or their predecessors) on the right — have struggled to compete with Mr. Macron’s message of political renewal. The Socialists are expected to save only a couple of dozen seats among the nearly 300 they currently hold.
• The fate of establishment parties, especially the Socialists.
The traditional parties that have governed much of France’s political life for the past 50 years — the Socialists on the left and the Republicans (or their predecessors) on the right — have struggled to compete with Mr. Macron’s message of political renewal. The Socialists are expected to save only a couple dozen seats among the nearly 300 they currently hold.
• How Marine Le Pen and Jean-Luc Mélenchon perform.
Ms. Le Pen, the head of the far-right National Front and Mr. Macron’s runoff opponent, is running for a seat in Hénin-Beaumont in northern France. Mr. Mélenchon, the leader of the far-left France Unbowed movement, is running in Marseille, on the Mediterranean coast.Ms. Le Pen, the head of the far-right National Front and Mr. Macron’s runoff opponent, is running for a seat in Hénin-Beaumont in northern France. Mr. Mélenchon, the leader of the far-left France Unbowed movement, is running in Marseille, on the Mediterranean coast.
Even though both leaders have good chances of being elected, their parties, especially the National Front, failed to capitalize on their showings in the presidential election, and they may win only a few seats each.Even though both leaders have good chances of being elected, their parties, especially the National Front, failed to capitalize on their showings in the presidential election, and they may win only a few seats each.
• The number of female representatives elected.
A record number of women are well positioned to be elected on Sunday, many of them candidates for La République en Marche, which was one of the only parties to field more women than men.A record number of women are well positioned to be elected on Sunday, many of them candidates for La République en Marche, which was one of the only parties to field more women than men.
Under French law, parties that do not field at least 50 percent of female candidates in the legislative elections are fined, but parties have sometimes preferred to pay the fines or have fielded female candidates in districts that are hard to win. Under French law, parties that do not field at least 50 percent female candidates in the legislative elections are fined. Some parties have fielded female candidates in districts that are hard to win anyway to reach the threshold, or they have preferred to pay the fines and not field the minimum number of women.