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Bank of England leaves interest rates on hold in shock 5-3 split - business live Bank of England leaves interest rates on hold in shock 5-3 split - business live
(35 minutes later)
3.44pm BST
15:44
Helena Smith
Over in Athens, pensioners have been holding anti-austerity protests - and sound unimpressed by the prospect of Greece finally getting its next bailout loan approved today.
Helena Smith reports from the Greek capital:
Today’s euro group is starting on a note of optimistic with even Greece’s embattled finance minister saying he is hopeful that today’s proceedings will end well. But whatever emerges this evening will be far from what the increasingly embattled Greek government had in mind.
As euro area finance ministers prepared for this afternoon’s crucial Euro group, pensioners from across Greece gathered before the country’s parliament in Syntagma square to protest against the extra cuts they now stand to suffer following legislation of additional austerity measures last month.
Most, like Nikos Agnagnostopulos, were in their eighties. “I came into Athens from the Peloponnese because the fight has to go on,” he said.
“As a builder I paid into my fund for nearly 50 years and now they have reduced my pension by 50%. With the next round there will be nothing left.”
Prime minister Alexis Tsipras’ leftist-led coalition agreed to pre-legilsate cuts that as of 2019 will see some pensions being reduced by a further 18 percent in exchange for 7.5 bn euro in loan disbursements that single currency finance ministers are expected to sign off today. With maturing debt due next month, the tranche is vital if Greece is to, once again, avert default. But the emergency funds are a far cry from the debt relief Tsipras insists is absolutely necessary if the recession-hit Greek economy is ever to recover.
“At the very least we are expecting what they agree to give us to be bigger than the forthcoming debt owed,” said one Syriza MP adding that a bigger tranche would automatically stimulate the real economy.
“We were told [by Tsipras] in no uncertain terms that the qui pro quo for supporting measures that went beyond those initially agreed in this [bailout] programme would be debt forgiveness. A lot of us are enraged that while we have kept to our side of the deal, they [creditors] have not kept to theirs.”
Ahead of the today’s meeting Tsipras had urged lenders to “respect the rules” in op eds penned for the French daily Le Monde and German Die Welt. “We expect our lenders to respect the rules that they, themselves, came up with,” he wrote. “ To respect my country. To respect Greece.”
More than 2,000 elderly protesters have marched through central Athens to protest further pension cuts#Athens #pensioners #protesting pic.twitter.com/EJawRBPCUk
3.16pm BST3.16pm BST
15:1615:16
Greece close to debt dealGreece close to debt deal
Optimism is building that Greece and its creditors might finally reach a deal over its bailout today.Optimism is building that Greece and its creditors might finally reach a deal over its bailout today.
The eurogroup meeting is getting underway in Luxembourg, and several ministers have expressed hopes that Athens might finally get its next aid tranche. This loan has been held back for months, as creditors demand moreThe eurogroup meeting is getting underway in Luxembourg, and several ministers have expressed hopes that Athens might finally get its next aid tranche. This loan has been held back for months, as creditors demand more
German Finance Minister Wolfgang Schaeuble told reporters:German Finance Minister Wolfgang Schaeuble told reporters:
“I remain confident that we will find an agreement today on the payment of the latest tranche.”“I remain confident that we will find an agreement today on the payment of the latest tranche.”
However, Schauble also dampened hopes of a breakthrough on debt relief today.However, Schauble also dampened hopes of a breakthrough on debt relief today.
French Finance Minister Bruno Le Maire was also upbeat, saying:French Finance Minister Bruno Le Maire was also upbeat, saying:
“It’s a question of goodwill and it’s a question of willingness. If everyone around the table makes a very slight and positive move in the right direction we should be able to find an agreement today,”“It’s a question of goodwill and it’s a question of willingness. If everyone around the table makes a very slight and positive move in the right direction we should be able to find an agreement today,”
The IMF’s managing director, Christine Lagarde, is also attending the meeting:The IMF’s managing director, Christine Lagarde, is also attending the meeting:
#IMF's @Lagarde on arrival for #Eurogroup meeting: "Hopefully differences will narrow enough so that it can help the process" on #Greece. pic.twitter.com/qm4dfYjwJU#IMF's @Lagarde on arrival for #Eurogroup meeting: "Hopefully differences will narrow enough so that it can help the process" on #Greece. pic.twitter.com/qm4dfYjwJU
2.49pm BST2.49pm BST
14:4914:49
The head of the Royal Statistical Society is jubilant that UK data will no longer be released early to selected insiders.The head of the Royal Statistical Society is jubilant that UK data will no longer be released early to selected insiders.
Huge success for @RoyalStatSoc and partners - @ONS to end #prereleaseaccess to statistics from 1st July https://t.co/fI48Mf1kQdHuge success for @RoyalStatSoc and partners - @ONS to end #prereleaseaccess to statistics from 1st July https://t.co/fI48Mf1kQd
Back in March, the WSJ’s Mike Bird exposed how UK government bonds moved in suspicious ways before UK data was released, suggesting that statistics were being leaked.Back in March, the WSJ’s Mike Bird exposed how UK government bonds moved in suspicious ways before UK data was released, suggesting that statistics were being leaked.
He wrote:He wrote:
On average, between April 2011 and December 2016, U.K. government-bond futures correctly anticipated the rise or fall that ultimately happened when economic data were published, according to an analysis prepared for The Wall Street Journal by Alexander Kurov, associate professor of finance at West Virginia University.....On average, between April 2011 and December 2016, U.K. government-bond futures correctly anticipated the rise or fall that ultimately happened when economic data were published, according to an analysis prepared for The Wall Street Journal by Alexander Kurov, associate professor of finance at West Virginia University.....
Some senior British statisticians and policy makers have long feared that the U.K.’s wide, early distribution of data creates a much greater risk of leaks and the potential that people could trade on data ahead of their release.Some senior British statisticians and policy makers have long feared that the U.K.’s wide, early distribution of data creates a much greater risk of leaks and the potential that people could trade on data ahead of their release.
For U.K. unemployment data, for instance, 118 people have prerelease access, according to the Office for National Statistics.For U.K. unemployment data, for instance, 118 people have prerelease access, according to the Office for National Statistics.
The beautiful print graphic pic.twitter.com/FS9jgKjg0mThe beautiful print graphic pic.twitter.com/FS9jgKjg0m
2.35pm BST2.35pm BST
14:3514:35
ONS finally tightens data releases after leak fearsONS finally tightens data releases after leak fears
Important news! The Office for National Statistics is stopping releasing data 24 hours early to scores of politicians and officials.Important news! The Office for National Statistics is stopping releasing data 24 hours early to scores of politicians and officials.
From July 1, the ONS will end its current ‘pre-access’ system, which allowed early access to official surveys.From July 1, the ONS will end its current ‘pre-access’ system, which allowed early access to official surveys.
This follows pressure from economists and journalists, and persistent concern that the data has been leaked to City traders who have profited by buying or selling the pound in advance.This follows pressure from economists and journalists, and persistent concern that the data has been leaked to City traders who have profited by buying or selling the pound in advance.
The UK’s national statistician, John Pullinger, says that previous efforts to tighten early access haven’t worked, so the whole system must end.The UK’s national statistician, John Pullinger, says that previous efforts to tighten early access haven’t worked, so the whole system must end.
Pullinger says:Pullinger says:
On the basis of all the information now available to me I consider that the public benefit likely to result from pre-release access to ONS statistics is outweighed by the detriment to public trust in those statistics likely to result from such access.On the basis of all the information now available to me I consider that the public benefit likely to result from pre-release access to ONS statistics is outweighed by the detriment to public trust in those statistics likely to result from such access.
U.K. STATISTICS AUTHORITY TO END EARLY ACCESS TO DATA FOR GOVT no more leaks!U.K. STATISTICS AUTHORITY TO END EARLY ACCESS TO DATA FOR GOVT no more leaks!
And now... UK STATISTICS AUTHORITY CHAIRMAN SAYS ONS PLANS TO END GOVERNMENT MINISTERS' PRE-RELEASE ACCESS TO OFFICIAL STATISTICS FROM JUL 1 https://t.co/OyRK0HwbuKAnd now... UK STATISTICS AUTHORITY CHAIRMAN SAYS ONS PLANS TO END GOVERNMENT MINISTERS' PRE-RELEASE ACCESS TO OFFICIAL STATISTICS FROM JUL 1 https://t.co/OyRK0HwbuK
2.23pm BST2.23pm BST
14:2314:23
Lena Komileva of G+ Economics makes a very good point.Lena Komileva of G+ Economics makes a very good point.
The Bank of England doesn’t actually have to raise rates to influence the markets. It can make signals, and encourage investors to change their views, through a narrow vote on the MPC.The Bank of England doesn’t actually have to raise rates to influence the markets. It can make signals, and encourage investors to change their views, through a narrow vote on the MPC.
She says:She says:
It is an open question as to whether either Saunders and or McCafferty would have predicted a rate hike at today’s meeting had they still been in their former roles as a market and industry economist respectively. This is to say that, with monetary “hawks” likely to remain in the minority, even in the face of a strong inflation overshoot, the importance of the wider vote split is in the market signalling, not in the probability of an actual rate hike near term.It is an open question as to whether either Saunders and or McCafferty would have predicted a rate hike at today’s meeting had they still been in their former roles as a market and industry economist respectively. This is to say that, with monetary “hawks” likely to remain in the minority, even in the face of a strong inflation overshoot, the importance of the wider vote split is in the market signalling, not in the probability of an actual rate hike near term.
1.53pm BST1.53pm BST
13:5313:53
Just in: The Mansion House Dinner has been cancelled, due to the Grenfell Tower disaster.Just in: The Mansion House Dinner has been cancelled, due to the Grenfell Tower disaster.
Mansion House dinner is to be cancelledMansion House dinner is to be cancelled
Statement from City of London Corporation “In the light of the tragedy at Grenfell Tower we are cancelling tonight’s Mansion House Dinner”Statement from City of London Corporation “In the light of the tragedy at Grenfell Tower we are cancelling tonight’s Mansion House Dinner”
City of London cancels Mansion House dinner altogether, adding: “Our thoughts are focussed with the victims and their families and friends.”City of London cancels Mansion House dinner altogether, adding: “Our thoughts are focussed with the victims and their families and friends.”
UpdatedUpdated
at 1.55pm BSTat 1.55pm BST
1.36pm BST1.36pm BST
13:3613:36
Samuel Tombs of Pantheon Economics argues that it would be a mistake to raise UK interest rates now.Samuel Tombs of Pantheon Economics argues that it would be a mistake to raise UK interest rates now.
In case no one has said it yet on twitter... it would be madness to raise interest rates now when wages growth is below 2%.In case no one has said it yet on twitter... it would be madness to raise interest rates now when wages growth is below 2%.
1.24pm BST1.24pm BST
13:2413:24
Via Barclays, here’s a chart showing which Bank of England policymakers are hawkish, dovish, or firmly on the fence.Via Barclays, here’s a chart showing which Bank of England policymakers are hawkish, dovish, or firmly on the fence.
Barclays also predicts that interest rates will remain on hold until 2019.Barclays also predicts that interest rates will remain on hold until 2019.
Minutes of the meeting mention higher-than-expected core inflation and investment intentions, in addition to firming global growth and extra imported inflation stemming from the depreciation in the currency.Minutes of the meeting mention higher-than-expected core inflation and investment intentions, in addition to firming global growth and extra imported inflation stemming from the depreciation in the currency.
Those MPC members who voted for a hike emphasised tighter labour market conditions and risks of a more pronounced inflation overshoot. Despite the change in vote split, we remain of the view that no interest hike will be delivered in the course of the next two years.Those MPC members who voted for a hike emphasised tighter labour market conditions and risks of a more pronounced inflation overshoot. Despite the change in vote split, we remain of the view that no interest hike will be delivered in the course of the next two years.
1.12pm BST1.12pm BST
13:1213:12
UK chancellor Philip Hammond will not give the traditional Mansion House speech tonight, following the awful Grenfell Tower disaster.UK chancellor Philip Hammond will not give the traditional Mansion House speech tonight, following the awful Grenfell Tower disaster.
In view of the Grenfell Tower tragedy, I have withdrawn from giving the Mansion House speech tonight. My thoughts are with local community.In view of the Grenfell Tower tragedy, I have withdrawn from giving the Mansion House speech tonight. My thoughts are with local community.
Hammond had been planning to use the speech to warn against a ‘hard Brexit’.Hammond had been planning to use the speech to warn against a ‘hard Brexit’.
UpdatedUpdated
at 1.14pm BSTat 1.14pm BST
1.01pm BST1.01pm BST
13:0113:01
Ben Brettell, senior economist at Hargreaves Lansdown, says the Bank appears to be running out of patience with inflation:Ben Brettell, senior economist at Hargreaves Lansdown, says the Bank appears to be running out of patience with inflation:
Set against a backdrop of disappointing retail sales, slowing growth, shrinking real wages and heightened political uncertainty, it was somewhat surprising that three MPC members voted for higher rates at this week’s policy meeting.Set against a backdrop of disappointing retail sales, slowing growth, shrinking real wages and heightened political uncertainty, it was somewhat surprising that three MPC members voted for higher rates at this week’s policy meeting.
Economists had expected a 7-1 split, with the soon-to-depart Kristin Forbes the lone voice calling for higher rates. In fact she was joined by Ian McCafferty and Michael Saunders in believing intensifying inflationary pressures justify an immediate 25 basis point increase.Economists had expected a 7-1 split, with the soon-to-depart Kristin Forbes the lone voice calling for higher rates. In fact she was joined by Ian McCafferty and Michael Saunders in believing intensifying inflationary pressures justify an immediate 25 basis point increase.
It seems the willingness of the MPC to ‘look through’ higher inflation and leave rates on hold is wearing thin, and if inflation continues to surprise we could see higher rates by the end of the summer.It seems the willingness of the MPC to ‘look through’ higher inflation and leave rates on hold is wearing thin, and if inflation continues to surprise we could see higher rates by the end of the summer.
12.48pm BST12.48pm BST
12:4812:48
Almost every share on the FTSE 100 is down right now.Almost every share on the FTSE 100 is down right now.
Right now, shares of HSBC and LSE only ones trading higher on FTSE 100. pic.twitter.com/Oozuf9xP5bRight now, shares of HSBC and LSE only ones trading higher on FTSE 100. pic.twitter.com/Oozuf9xP5b
12.39pm BST12.39pm BST
12:3912:39
The jump in the pound has sent the FTSE 100 into a spin.The jump in the pound has sent the FTSE 100 into a spin.
The blue-chip index has tumbled by 90 points, or 1.2%, to 7383. Retailers and housebuilders are among the top fallers, along with multinationals like miners (whose share price benefits from a weak pound).The blue-chip index has tumbled by 90 points, or 1.2%, to 7383. Retailers and housebuilders are among the top fallers, along with multinationals like miners (whose share price benefits from a weak pound).
UpdatedUpdated
at 12.41pm BSTat 12.41pm BST
12.37pm BST12.37pm BST
12:3712:37
This is the first time since 2011 that three MPC members have voted to raise rates (six years ago, the hawks were Andrew Sentance, Martin Weale and Spencer Dale). That was a 6-3 vote.This is the first time since 2011 that three MPC members have voted to raise rates (six years ago, the hawks were Andrew Sentance, Martin Weale and Spencer Dale). That was a 6-3 vote.
It’s also the closest vote since 2007 - when the BoE was divided 5-4.It’s also the closest vote since 2007 - when the BoE was divided 5-4.
Currently there are only eight MPC members, as deputy governor Charlotte Hogg hasn’t been replaced yet. So is the Bank really close to raising rates?Currently there are only eight MPC members, as deputy governor Charlotte Hogg hasn’t been replaced yet. So is the Bank really close to raising rates?
Probably not. For starters, this is Kristin Forbes final vote on the MPC, and her successor may take a different view of the situation.Probably not. For starters, this is Kristin Forbes final vote on the MPC, and her successor may take a different view of the situation.
It’s also hard to imagine that Hogg’s replacement would break ranks and oppose governor Mark Carney, who of course voted to leave rates on hold today.It’s also hard to imagine that Hogg’s replacement would break ranks and oppose governor Mark Carney, who of course voted to leave rates on hold today.
But few City experts predicted such a close vote today, so who knows.....But few City experts predicted such a close vote today, so who knows.....
So the £ has risen against the $Next month one of the hawks - Kristin Forbes - leaves. Who will they bring in? pic.twitter.com/FlhXzMkWpCSo the £ has risen against the $Next month one of the hawks - Kristin Forbes - leaves. Who will they bring in? pic.twitter.com/FlhXzMkWpC
12.28pm BST12.28pm BST
12:2812:28
Hawks and Doves battle at the Bank of EnglandHawks and Doves battle at the Bank of England
The minutes of today’s meeting show how the Bank of England is split between policymakers who believe inflation should be reined in, and those who believe the economy is too weak to bear higher rates.The minutes of today’s meeting show how the Bank of England is split between policymakers who believe inflation should be reined in, and those who believe the economy is too weak to bear higher rates.
Many policymakers fear that hiking rates could crush economic growth, and that it would be better to let inflation keep climbing.Many policymakers fear that hiking rates could crush economic growth, and that it would be better to let inflation keep climbing.
As the minutes put it:As the minutes put it:
Attempting to offset fully the effect of weaker sterling on inflation would be achievable only at the cost of higher unemployment and, in all likelihood, even weaker income growth.Attempting to offset fully the effect of weaker sterling on inflation would be achievable only at the cost of higher unemployment and, in all likelihood, even weaker income growth.
But Kristin Forbes, Michael Saunders and Ian McCafferty -- three independent members of the MPC -- believe that inflation needs to be tackled, as it heads towards 3%.But Kristin Forbes, Michael Saunders and Ian McCafferty -- three independent members of the MPC -- believe that inflation needs to be tackled, as it heads towards 3%.
This is the key section of the minutes, which shows how the three hawks and five doves tussled over what to to:This is the key section of the minutes, which shows how the three hawks and five doves tussled over what to to:
Overall, the degree of spare capacity in the economy appeared limited but, at the same time, the inflation overshoot relative to the target could be more pronounced than previously thought. This lessened the trade-off that the MPC was required to balance and, all else equal, reduced the MPC’s tolerance of above-target inflation. The Committee discussed the appropriate response of monetary policy.Overall, the degree of spare capacity in the economy appeared limited but, at the same time, the inflation overshoot relative to the target could be more pronounced than previously thought. This lessened the trade-off that the MPC was required to balance and, all else equal, reduced the MPC’s tolerance of above-target inflation. The Committee discussed the appropriate response of monetary policy.
Given this change in the trade-off, there were arguments in favour of a moderate tightening in monetary policy. Headline, core and some domestically focussed inflation measures had picked up further. Inflation was projected to overshoot the target by more than previously expected, and to remain above it throughout the three-year forecast period. Slack in the labour market appeared to have diminished, and demand for labour remained strong. Growth in business investment and net trade appeared on track to compensate for weaker consumption. The withdrawal of part of the stimulus that the Committee had injected in August last year would help to moderate the inflation overshoot while leaving monetary policy very supportive.Given this change in the trade-off, there were arguments in favour of a moderate tightening in monetary policy. Headline, core and some domestically focussed inflation measures had picked up further. Inflation was projected to overshoot the target by more than previously expected, and to remain above it throughout the three-year forecast period. Slack in the labour market appeared to have diminished, and demand for labour remained strong. Growth in business investment and net trade appeared on track to compensate for weaker consumption. The withdrawal of part of the stimulus that the Committee had injected in August last year would help to moderate the inflation overshoot while leaving monetary policy very supportive.
But there were also arguments in favour of leaving the policy rate unchanged. A slowdown in household consumption, and GDP as a whole, had recently begun, and it was too early to judge with confidence how large and persistent it would prove to be. Although consumer confidence had held up, there had been further signs of a slowing housing market and new car registrations had fallen sharply. It was as yet unclear to what degree weaker consumption would be offset by other components of demand. A period of slower than expected growth could see a margin of slack re-opening. Wage growth had remained subdued, despite low unemployment.But there were also arguments in favour of leaving the policy rate unchanged. A slowdown in household consumption, and GDP as a whole, had recently begun, and it was too early to judge with confidence how large and persistent it would prove to be. Although consumer confidence had held up, there had been further signs of a slowing housing market and new car registrations had fallen sharply. It was as yet unclear to what degree weaker consumption would be offset by other components of demand. A period of slower than expected growth could see a margin of slack re-opening. Wage growth had remained subdued, despite low unemployment.
Bank between a rock and hard place - not much spare capacity & inflation overshoot likely to be larger than they assumed. pic.twitter.com/MZ1c0SHvyEBank between a rock and hard place - not much spare capacity & inflation overshoot likely to be larger than they assumed. pic.twitter.com/MZ1c0SHvyE
12.14pm BST12.14pm BST
12:1412:14
Katie AllenKatie Allen
From the Bank of England, my colleague Katie Allen reports on today’s split:From the Bank of England, my colleague Katie Allen reports on today’s split:
The Bank of England edged closer to raising interest rates this month as a deeper split emerged among its committee of policymakers, with three of the eight voting for an immediate rate rise to keep inflation in check.The Bank of England edged closer to raising interest rates this month as a deeper split emerged among its committee of policymakers, with three of the eight voting for an immediate rate rise to keep inflation in check.
The 5-3 split vote to keep interest rates at their record low of 0.25% will surprise financial markets. Most City economists had expected just one member, Kristin Forbes, would maintain her previous vote for rates to be raised to 0.5%. Instead she was joined by Ian McCafferty and Michael Saunders.The 5-3 split vote to keep interest rates at their record low of 0.25% will surprise financial markets. Most City economists had expected just one member, Kristin Forbes, would maintain her previous vote for rates to be raised to 0.5%. Instead she was joined by Ian McCafferty and Michael Saunders.
Their call for higher borrowing costs follows figures this week showing inflation had risen further above the Bank’s target. In May inflation hit 2.9% as measured by the consumer prices index (CPI), well above the Bank’s 2.0% target. The May pick-up was driven in part by the pound’s weakness since the Brexit vote, which has made imports to the UK more expensive.Their call for higher borrowing costs follows figures this week showing inflation had risen further above the Bank’s target. In May inflation hit 2.9% as measured by the consumer prices index (CPI), well above the Bank’s 2.0% target. The May pick-up was driven in part by the pound’s weakness since the Brexit vote, which has made imports to the UK more expensive.
The other five members of the monetary policy committee, including Bank governor Mark Carney, felt interest rates should stay at their current low to help support growth at a time when Britons’ incomes are being squeezed by rising prices and meagre wage growth. The drop in living standards has hit consumer spending and knocked overall economic growth. Figures this week showed workers were suffering the biggest squeeze on their pay since 2014.The other five members of the monetary policy committee, including Bank governor Mark Carney, felt interest rates should stay at their current low to help support growth at a time when Britons’ incomes are being squeezed by rising prices and meagre wage growth. The drop in living standards has hit consumer spending and knocked overall economic growth. Figures this week showed workers were suffering the biggest squeeze on their pay since 2014.
Minutes from the Bank’s rate-setting meeting released on Thursday cited a range of views on the committee. They noted inflation was now expected to overshoot the Bank’s target by more than previously expected. Supporting those voting for a rate rise, there were also signs that growth in business investment and net trade was on track to make up for weaker consumption.Minutes from the Bank’s rate-setting meeting released on Thursday cited a range of views on the committee. They noted inflation was now expected to overshoot the Bank’s target by more than previously expected. Supporting those voting for a rate rise, there were also signs that growth in business investment and net trade was on track to make up for weaker consumption.
The minutes added that for some policymakers it was time to start scaling back the massive package of support launched in the wake of last summer’s referendum, that included a rate cut and more electronic money printing.....The minutes added that for some policymakers it was time to start scaling back the massive package of support launched in the wake of last summer’s referendum, that included a rate cut and more electronic money printing.....
12.09pm BST12.09pm BST
12:0912:09
The pound has jumped by almost a cent to $1.278 as traders react to the shock news that three BoE policymakers want to raise interest rates.The pound has jumped by almost a cent to $1.278 as traders react to the shock news that three BoE policymakers want to raise interest rates.
Sterling pops on BoE vote pic.twitter.com/YZ5iMWshymSterling pops on BoE vote pic.twitter.com/YZ5iMWshym
Jump in sterling on 5-3 vote at BOE against a rate hike. 7-1 vote was expected. pic.twitter.com/ZEoVHItLipJump in sterling on 5-3 vote at BOE against a rate hike. 7-1 vote was expected. pic.twitter.com/ZEoVHItLip
UpdatedUpdated
at 12.09pm BSTat 12.09pm BST