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You can find the current article at its original source at https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2017/jun/13/the-guardian-view-on-the-tory-government-coalition-of-chaos
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| The Guardian view on the Tory government: coalition of chaos | The Guardian view on the Tory government: coalition of chaos |
| (25 days later) | |
| Tue 13 Jun 2017 19.45 BST | Tue 13 Jun 2017 19.45 BST |
| Last modified on Wed 14 Feb 2018 15.38 GMT | |
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| Sir John Major, the former Conservative prime minister, warns in the strongest terms against a deal with the Democratic Unionists, and calls for “facts, not idle hopes” on Brexit. Inflation surges to a four-year high as sterling continues its post-referendum fall. The European commission reveals rule changes likely to hit the City. The shop steward of backbench Brexiters, Steve Baker, becomes a minister in the Department for Exiting the EU. Five days after the catastrophic election results, the government is still staggering through the aftermath of its own terrible campaign, Theresa May’s troubled leadership, and Labour’s galvanising surge. | Sir John Major, the former Conservative prime minister, warns in the strongest terms against a deal with the Democratic Unionists, and calls for “facts, not idle hopes” on Brexit. Inflation surges to a four-year high as sterling continues its post-referendum fall. The European commission reveals rule changes likely to hit the City. The shop steward of backbench Brexiters, Steve Baker, becomes a minister in the Department for Exiting the EU. Five days after the catastrophic election results, the government is still staggering through the aftermath of its own terrible campaign, Theresa May’s troubled leadership, and Labour’s galvanising surge. |
| The thoughtful and cogent case against any kind of formal relationship with the DUP that Sir John set out in a BBC radio interview at lunchtime today – moments after the DUP leader Arlene Foster went into No 10 to negotiate just such a relationship – should resonate throughout the Tory party. Sir John’s role in getting the peace process off the ground in the 1990s lends authority to his warning that a deal would compromise the “rigorous impartiality” that the government must be able to show, most immediately in the fragile talks about restoring power-sharing, but also in the uncertain future of the post-Brexit era. Whatever the reality, any formal arrangement would surely be the final blow to the Tory claim to govern in the national interest. And, as Sir John argued, it is not even necessary to keep the Tories in power. For the DUP to trigger an election that could well be won by Jeremy Corbyn’s Labour would for them be an exercise in self-harm on a par with Mrs May’s announcement of a snap election two months ago. Sustaining a minority government would be hand to mouth. But it would also be more obviously in the national interest. | The thoughtful and cogent case against any kind of formal relationship with the DUP that Sir John set out in a BBC radio interview at lunchtime today – moments after the DUP leader Arlene Foster went into No 10 to negotiate just such a relationship – should resonate throughout the Tory party. Sir John’s role in getting the peace process off the ground in the 1990s lends authority to his warning that a deal would compromise the “rigorous impartiality” that the government must be able to show, most immediately in the fragile talks about restoring power-sharing, but also in the uncertain future of the post-Brexit era. Whatever the reality, any formal arrangement would surely be the final blow to the Tory claim to govern in the national interest. And, as Sir John argued, it is not even necessary to keep the Tories in power. For the DUP to trigger an election that could well be won by Jeremy Corbyn’s Labour would for them be an exercise in self-harm on a par with Mrs May’s announcement of a snap election two months ago. Sustaining a minority government would be hand to mouth. But it would also be more obviously in the national interest. |
| Meanwhile, after defying gravity for the year since the referendum, gloomy economic indicators will be alarming the Treasury. Inflation has jumped to 2.9% – which could lead at last to an interest rate rise – and household spending is down: with public sector pay rises capped at 1% and private sector pay rising at around 2%, there is a painful squeeze on living standards that may have played a role in this election result and will surely in the next one. Monday’s first meeting of the new cabinet agreed that austerity – already watered down in Philip Hammond’s first budget – would now be softened further. But in rhetorical terms, austerity has been over for a year. What that means in practice is still opaque. As the Resolution Foundation observes, the benefits freeze instigated by George Osborne remains in place. Working-age benefits cuts will leave 10 million families worse off in 2021 than they were in 2015. The former foreign secretary William Hague argued for a cross-party approach to Brexit, then claimed in a column in the Daily Telegraph that an election could lead to a government run by “Marxists”. Make no mistake, this government is terrified of another vote but still trading in fear. | Meanwhile, after defying gravity for the year since the referendum, gloomy economic indicators will be alarming the Treasury. Inflation has jumped to 2.9% – which could lead at last to an interest rate rise – and household spending is down: with public sector pay rises capped at 1% and private sector pay rising at around 2%, there is a painful squeeze on living standards that may have played a role in this election result and will surely in the next one. Monday’s first meeting of the new cabinet agreed that austerity – already watered down in Philip Hammond’s first budget – would now be softened further. But in rhetorical terms, austerity has been over for a year. What that means in practice is still opaque. As the Resolution Foundation observes, the benefits freeze instigated by George Osborne remains in place. Working-age benefits cuts will leave 10 million families worse off in 2021 than they were in 2015. The former foreign secretary William Hague argued for a cross-party approach to Brexit, then claimed in a column in the Daily Telegraph that an election could lead to a government run by “Marxists”. Make no mistake, this government is terrified of another vote but still trading in fear. |
| That fear may yet be a positive influence on attitudes to Brexit. The election result categorically denies Mrs May the mandate for the kind of Brexit, remote from the single market and the European court of justice, for which she argued. There is no majority either in the country or in the Commons for that kind of absolutist approach; the new openness to the views of other parties and of other players that ministers are displaying, and the suggestion that diverse voices are needed, is acknowledgment of that. It is a welcome move. What a less draconian departure could mean in detail, however, is far from clear. Yet the talks are scheduled to begin early next week, and with both Michel Barnier, the official negotiator, and Guy Verhofstadt for the European parliament appearing to press for progress, impatience is evidently mounting on the other side. | That fear may yet be a positive influence on attitudes to Brexit. The election result categorically denies Mrs May the mandate for the kind of Brexit, remote from the single market and the European court of justice, for which she argued. There is no majority either in the country or in the Commons for that kind of absolutist approach; the new openness to the views of other parties and of other players that ministers are displaying, and the suggestion that diverse voices are needed, is acknowledgment of that. It is a welcome move. What a less draconian departure could mean in detail, however, is far from clear. Yet the talks are scheduled to begin early next week, and with both Michel Barnier, the official negotiator, and Guy Verhofstadt for the European parliament appearing to press for progress, impatience is evidently mounting on the other side. |
| This continuing confusion suggests that it is still far from certain that a wounded and demoralised Mrs May will be able to hang on either as party leader or prime minister. She has calmed her party for the time being; her MPs have shown their familiar capacity for public displays of unity, whatever enmities are being nurtured below the political horizon. She must shortly prove that she can command a majority in the Commons and the loyalty of her party. The former will require a flexibility on policies like public sector pay and the threatened cuts to schools, the health service and social care, and a more generous attitude to immigration which may undermine the latter. The most ardent Brexiters will not be easily deflected. Only fear of another election against Jeremy Corbyn stands between her and meltdown. | This continuing confusion suggests that it is still far from certain that a wounded and demoralised Mrs May will be able to hang on either as party leader or prime minister. She has calmed her party for the time being; her MPs have shown their familiar capacity for public displays of unity, whatever enmities are being nurtured below the political horizon. She must shortly prove that she can command a majority in the Commons and the loyalty of her party. The former will require a flexibility on policies like public sector pay and the threatened cuts to schools, the health service and social care, and a more generous attitude to immigration which may undermine the latter. The most ardent Brexiters will not be easily deflected. Only fear of another election against Jeremy Corbyn stands between her and meltdown. |
| • This article was amended on 14 June 2017. An earlier version referred to Sir John Major as John Major. | • This article was amended on 14 June 2017. An earlier version referred to Sir John Major as John Major. |
| Conservatives | Conservatives |
| Opinion | Opinion |
| Theresa May | Theresa May |
| General election 2017 | General election 2017 |
| Democratic Unionist party (DUP) | Democratic Unionist party (DUP) |
| John Major | John Major |
| Brexit | Brexit |
| editorials | editorials |
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