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Reality Check: Did Jeremy Corbyn have youth on his side? | Reality Check: Did Jeremy Corbyn have youth on his side? |
(7 days later) | |
The claim: Jeremy Corbyn had youth on his side. | The claim: Jeremy Corbyn had youth on his side. |
Reality Check verdict: If the YouGov and Ipsos Mori polls are accurate there was a big swing of young people to Labour and a considerable increase in their turnout. | |
YouGov released the first big poll of how different groups voted at the general election on 13 June - the version from Ipsos Mori came out on 20 June. Both of these are estimates based on polling. There are no official figures because the general election is a secret ballot - the closest we have is the British Election Study, but that will not be released for months. | |
YouGov estimated that voters aged between 18 and 29 preferred Labour to the Conservatives by 63% to 22%, having polled more than 50,000 people online since election day. | |
The corresponding figures it gave in its poll after the 2015 election were 36% to 32% - if correct that is a huge swing among young voters. | |
Ipsos Mori's methodology is somewhat different - it spoke to 7,500 people before the election and then adjusted its findings based on the actual results. | |
But it also found a big swing to Labour among younger voters, beating the Conservatives by 62% to 27% among 18- to 24-year-olds, compared with a 43% to 27% split in 2015. | |
It said: "All the swing to Labour was among under-44s," although it actually found a bigger swing in the 25-34 age group than in the 18-24s. | |
Lord Ashcroft's much smaller exit poll puts support for Labour among young people even higher, with 67% of 18 to 24 year olds voting Labour and 18% voting Conservative. | Lord Ashcroft's much smaller exit poll puts support for Labour among young people even higher, with 67% of 18 to 24 year olds voting Labour and 18% voting Conservative. |
YouGov and Ipsos Mori also estimated the turnout among groups of voters. | |
YouGov found that about 58% of people between the age of 18 and 24 voted, while Ipsos Mori estimated that it was 54%. Both of those figures are a proportion of all 18- to 24-year-olds, not just those who are registered to vote. | |
If accurate, those figures would be considerably higher than recent elections, but lower than the widely quoted but poorly sourced figure of 72%, which Reality Check wrote about. | |
We don't have comparable YouGov figures from the 2015 election. The corresponding figures from Ipsos Mori were 38% of all 18- to 24-year-olds and 43% of those registered to vote. | |
The overall turnout (and these are actual figures - not based on polling) was 69%, compared with 66% in 2015, so it appears that the youth vote increased by considerably more than the overall turnout. | |
Among the other findings of the YouGov poll was that 49% of graduates voted Labour compared with 32% voting Conservative. In 2015 that figure was 34% Labour and 35% Conservative. | Among the other findings of the YouGov poll was that 49% of graduates voted Labour compared with 32% voting Conservative. In 2015 that figure was 34% Labour and 35% Conservative. |
That compares with people with no academic qualifications above GCSE, who in 2017 split 33% for Labour and 55% for the Conservatives and in 2015 split 30% for Labour and 38% for the Conservatives. | That compares with people with no academic qualifications above GCSE, who in 2017 split 33% for Labour and 55% for the Conservatives and in 2015 split 30% for Labour and 38% for the Conservatives. |
Ipsos Mori found broadly the same result broken down by level of education. | |
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