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| A Tory-DUP deal is a destructive pact that makes no sense at all | A Tory-DUP deal is a destructive pact that makes no sense at all |
| (7 months later) | |
| In the scrabble for a majority, Theresa May seems to have again rushed into an unnecessary response, overlooking the unionists’ cumbersome baggage | |
| Tue 13 Jun 2017 17.38 BST | |
| Last modified on Sun 25 Jun 2017 19.45 BST | |
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| “I’m the person who got us into this mess,” Theresa May told Tory MPs on Monday, “and I’m the one who will get us out of it.” The prime minister is right about the first half of that statement. But she is wrong about the second half. She has not learned from her humbling at the polls last week. In April, she rushed into an unnecessary election. Now, amid the political debris of that error, she is again rushing prematurely into an unnecessary response, in the shape of a destructive pact with the Democratic Unionists in June. | “I’m the person who got us into this mess,” Theresa May told Tory MPs on Monday, “and I’m the one who will get us out of it.” The prime minister is right about the first half of that statement. But she is wrong about the second half. She has not learned from her humbling at the polls last week. In April, she rushed into an unnecessary election. Now, amid the political debris of that error, she is again rushing prematurely into an unnecessary response, in the shape of a destructive pact with the Democratic Unionists in June. |
| In neither of these cases has May thought the dangers through properly. In her desire to appear decisive and in command she has brushed inconvenient realities aside. But realities always bite back eventually. The principal reality is that the DUP is not just any small party at Westminster. On the contrary, the unionists are a very particular entity. They bring three pieces of specially difficult baggage with them that a UK-wide political party like the Liberal Democrats, Labour or the Greens do not. | In neither of these cases has May thought the dangers through properly. In her desire to appear decisive and in command she has brushed inconvenient realities aside. But realities always bite back eventually. The principal reality is that the DUP is not just any small party at Westminster. On the contrary, the unionists are a very particular entity. They bring three pieces of specially difficult baggage with them that a UK-wide political party like the Liberal Democrats, Labour or the Greens do not. |
| First, the DUP is a regional party in UK terms. The party only represents Northern Ireland constituencies. That means that any deal they make with the Tories gives a territorial benefit to only one part of the country – money for Northern Ireland public spending, infrastructure, farmers, universities or whatever – that isn’t available in the rest of the UK. That breeds resentment elsewhere against the DUP’s trading of votes for cash, from which the Tories will ultimately suffer in Britain. | First, the DUP is a regional party in UK terms. The party only represents Northern Ireland constituencies. That means that any deal they make with the Tories gives a territorial benefit to only one part of the country – money for Northern Ireland public spending, infrastructure, farmers, universities or whatever – that isn’t available in the rest of the UK. That breeds resentment elsewhere against the DUP’s trading of votes for cash, from which the Tories will ultimately suffer in Britain. |
| Second, the DUP is an Irish party. That means that any deal with the party has a direct impact on Britain’s relations with a neighbouring state, the Irish Republic. The republic is Britain’s good neighbour and friend. It is a guarantor, along with Britain, of the Northern Ireland peace process. It is also a member state of the EU. So a deal with the EU affects both British-Irish relations and the Brexit process. There is no other potential parliamentary partnership that would affect the UK’s international relations in this way. | Second, the DUP is an Irish party. That means that any deal with the party has a direct impact on Britain’s relations with a neighbouring state, the Irish Republic. The republic is Britain’s good neighbour and friend. It is a guarantor, along with Britain, of the Northern Ireland peace process. It is also a member state of the EU. So a deal with the EU affects both British-Irish relations and the Brexit process. There is no other potential parliamentary partnership that would affect the UK’s international relations in this way. |
| Third, the DUP is a Northern Irish party. Any deal with the unionist DUP therefore necessarily impacts upon the fragile balance of the peace process between Northern Ireland’s unionists and nationalists, and threatens to complicate still further the highly sensitive but currently suspended power-sharing arrangements headed by the DUP and Sinn Féin. | Third, the DUP is a Northern Irish party. Any deal with the unionist DUP therefore necessarily impacts upon the fragile balance of the peace process between Northern Ireland’s unionists and nationalists, and threatens to complicate still further the highly sensitive but currently suspended power-sharing arrangements headed by the DUP and Sinn Féin. |
| The British government is supposed to be the impartial broker in any such suspension. To be in a formal pact with the DUP compromises that role, a danger which the equally uncompromising Sinn Féin will be quick to exploit, perhaps thereby dragging the Dublin government and even the EU into the dispute. This was the nub of John Major’s remarkable intervention, in which he pleaded with May to think more carefully about a DUP deal. | The British government is supposed to be the impartial broker in any such suspension. To be in a formal pact with the DUP compromises that role, a danger which the equally uncompromising Sinn Féin will be quick to exploit, perhaps thereby dragging the Dublin government and even the EU into the dispute. This was the nub of John Major’s remarkable intervention, in which he pleaded with May to think more carefully about a DUP deal. |
| Major was right about that. But he was also right in arguing that May does not necessarily need to do a deal with any smaller party. May’s Tories are only seven MPs short of a majority. She is therefore in a strong position – much stronger than Labour would be, for example – to run an effective minority government. Minority governments always have to make deals as they go along, but it is practically inconceivable that the DUP would be tempted to join with all the opposition parties to vote the Tories down, especially as that defeat might open the door to a Labour government headed by Jeremy Corbyn, whose views on Ireland the DUP absolutely abhors. | Major was right about that. But he was also right in arguing that May does not necessarily need to do a deal with any smaller party. May’s Tories are only seven MPs short of a majority. She is therefore in a strong position – much stronger than Labour would be, for example – to run an effective minority government. Minority governments always have to make deals as they go along, but it is practically inconceivable that the DUP would be tempted to join with all the opposition parties to vote the Tories down, especially as that defeat might open the door to a Labour government headed by Jeremy Corbyn, whose views on Ireland the DUP absolutely abhors. |
| A formal deal with the DUP therefore brings no added benefit to the Tories, while creating further reputational damage because of the DUP’s powerful image in Britain as a socially reactionary, culturally conservative, climate-change denying party. For a Tory leader who needs more than anything to reconnect with mainstream British voters after a tone deaf election campaign, this deal that makes no sense at all. | A formal deal with the DUP therefore brings no added benefit to the Tories, while creating further reputational damage because of the DUP’s powerful image in Britain as a socially reactionary, culturally conservative, climate-change denying party. For a Tory leader who needs more than anything to reconnect with mainstream British voters after a tone deaf election campaign, this deal that makes no sense at all. |
| The real challenge for the Tory party is not to scrabble together a Commons majority. It is to reset its relationship with British voters. The message to the Tories on 8 June was that the country does not want rightwing economic and Brexit policies. May’s real challenge now is to devise a programme with reordered priorities at home and a more open approach to the EU. As it happens, the DUP would probably vote for that anyway. | The real challenge for the Tory party is not to scrabble together a Commons majority. It is to reset its relationship with British voters. The message to the Tories on 8 June was that the country does not want rightwing economic and Brexit policies. May’s real challenge now is to devise a programme with reordered priorities at home and a more open approach to the EU. As it happens, the DUP would probably vote for that anyway. |
| Democratic Unionist party (DUP) | |
| Opinion | |
| Conservatives | |
| Theresa May | |
| General election 2017 | |
| Northern Ireland | |
| comment | |
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