South Korea, Caught Between Superpowers

https://www.nytimes.com/2017/06/12/opinion/south-korea-caught-between-superpowers.html

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Tensions are reaching a dangerous pitch on the Korean Peninsula, testing the leadership of South Korea’s new president, Moon Jae-in. Mr. Moon, a former human rights lawyer who took office just a month ago, backs talks with North Korea. But that option risks being foreclosed by President Trump’s more aggressive posture toward North Korea, China’s anger at an American antimissile system deployed in South Korea in March and the defiant push by the North Korea dictator, Kim Jong-un, to fire off missiles and improve the North’s nuclear capabilities.

In effect, Mr. Moon finds himself pincered between two rival powers, China and the United States, while facing an existential threat from the dictator next door.

China is convinced that the new antimissile system, known as Thaad, will allow American radar to penetrate deep into its territory. China’s response was to close stores owned by the South Korean conglomerate Lotte — which had provided land for the system — and imposed a ban on travel to South Korea by Chinese tour groups. Instead of bullying South Korea, China should be pressuring North Korea. After all, if it had done so over the year, there would be no need for Thaad now.

On Wednesday, in an apparent move to placate China, Mr. Moon announced the temporary suspension of four out of six Thaad launchers. The next day — and less than a week after the United Nations Security Council expanded sanctions against North Korea — the North test-fired yet another missile, its fourth in four weeks.

But Mr. Moon’s move may have been more astute than it seemed. Pointing to a required environmental assessment as the reason for the suspension of the four launchers, Mr. Moon was able to show China that he is heedful of its concerns, while assuring the United States that the system will remain in place and operational with the remaining launchers. President Trump would be wise to respect South Korea’s delicate position when Mr. Moon arrives in Washington this month, and not push too hard on Thaad. His longer-term goal must be to find a path toward negotiations.

Sticks alone have not managed to deter North Korea. The Thaad antimissile system is in place, United Nations sanctions have been expanded, the American naval presence in the region has been increased, China has backed away from its purchases of North Korean coal. What is needed now to stop North Korea is a united front by China, the United States and South Korea behind the negotiations Mr. Moon is seeking with the North.