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| Queen's speech: what the Tories' overhauled priorities may look like | Queen's speech: what the Tories' overhauled priorities may look like |
| (21 days later) | |
| The first Queen’s speech of the new parliament will be nothing like as ambitious as Theresa May had hoped, given the Conservative party’s lack of an overall majority and the need to rely on the Democratic Unionist party of Northern Ireland to pass legislation. Only a handful of key policies are likely to survive: | The first Queen’s speech of the new parliament will be nothing like as ambitious as Theresa May had hoped, given the Conservative party’s lack of an overall majority and the need to rely on the Democratic Unionist party of Northern Ireland to pass legislation. Only a handful of key policies are likely to survive: |
| Home affairs | Home affairs |
| A major offensive to “drive Islamist extremism” out of Britain is one of the few major manifesto commitments that May has made clear will go ahead. | A major offensive to “drive Islamist extremism” out of Britain is one of the few major manifesto commitments that May has made clear will go ahead. |
| After visiting Buckingham Palace on Friday, the prime minister announced on the steps of Downing Street that she considered “cracking down on the ideology of Islamist extremism and all those who support it” as second only to negotiating Brexit in the tasks facing the government. | After visiting Buckingham Palace on Friday, the prime minister announced on the steps of Downing Street that she considered “cracking down on the ideology of Islamist extremism and all those who support it” as second only to negotiating Brexit in the tasks facing the government. |
| She clearly believes she now has a mandate for the four-point plan outlined in her “enough is enough” speech, made in the aftermath of the terrorist attacks in London and Manchester. She also said she was prepared to rip up human rights laws if they got in the way of the crackdown. | She clearly believes she now has a mandate for the four-point plan outlined in her “enough is enough” speech, made in the aftermath of the terrorist attacks in London and Manchester. She also said she was prepared to rip up human rights laws if they got in the way of the crackdown. |
| The centrepiece of the plan is legislation to criminalise non-violent extremism for the first time in Britain, enforced by a new commission charged with “identifying and exposing examples of extremism”, and supporting the public sector and civil society in identifying extremists and countering their messages. | The centrepiece of the plan is legislation to criminalise non-violent extremism for the first time in Britain, enforced by a new commission charged with “identifying and exposing examples of extremism”, and supporting the public sector and civil society in identifying extremists and countering their messages. |
| In drafting a new counter-extremism bill, May is also expected to reach back to a speech she made two years ago in which she outlined a list of measures to curb “entryism” in the public sector and across society in the wake of the Birmingham “Trojan horse” scandal. They included bans on groups and exclusion orders on individuals. Alan Travis | In drafting a new counter-extremism bill, May is also expected to reach back to a speech she made two years ago in which she outlined a list of measures to curb “entryism” in the public sector and across society in the wake of the Birmingham “Trojan horse” scandal. They included bans on groups and exclusion orders on individuals. Alan Travis |
| Brexit | Brexit |
| The Queen’s speech was meant to be an important moment for May to recommit to her Brexit stance on the same day talks were due to start with the EU. Instead, the possible delay suggests that both the objectives and tactics may be under review. | The Queen’s speech was meant to be an important moment for May to recommit to her Brexit stance on the same day talks were due to start with the EU. Instead, the possible delay suggests that both the objectives and tactics may be under review. |
| A great repeal bill, opposed by Labour, may now look like a hard sell for May’s minority government. Even delaying the bill will cause significant headaches, because it slows the time-consuming but vital legislative process of converting EU law into UK statute. | A great repeal bill, opposed by Labour, may now look like a hard sell for May’s minority government. Even delaying the bill will cause significant headaches, because it slows the time-consuming but vital legislative process of converting EU law into UK statute. |
| The commitment to leave the single market is under pressure from Scottish Tory MPs and the Treasury, while the DUP is worried about the implications for the Irish border of leaving the customs union. | The commitment to leave the single market is under pressure from Scottish Tory MPs and the Treasury, while the DUP is worried about the implications for the Irish border of leaving the customs union. |
| For the first time, the hard Brexit of May’s Lancaster House speech, white paper and manifesto looks to be wobbling. Dan Roberts | For the first time, the hard Brexit of May’s Lancaster House speech, white paper and manifesto looks to be wobbling. Dan Roberts |
| Education | Education |
| May’s plan to build new grammar schools in England is almost certainly dead. Internal Tory election polling revealed little enthusiasm for the policy, to the extent that it disappeared from Conservative talking points during the election campaign. The continued hostility from some backbench Tory MPs – and the education community – effectively kills it, although the prime minister may not admit as much. | May’s plan to build new grammar schools in England is almost certainly dead. Internal Tory election polling revealed little enthusiasm for the policy, to the extent that it disappeared from Conservative talking points during the election campaign. The continued hostility from some backbench Tory MPs – and the education community – effectively kills it, although the prime minister may not admit as much. |
| Funding for both universities and schools remains uncertain. The Tory manifesto promised to scrap free school lunches for infants in English primary schools, but such a hit on middle class voters now seems unlikely. The school funding crisis was a major issue in the campaign, so the manifesto promise to redirect more cash to schools may survive – and might even be improved. | Funding for both universities and schools remains uncertain. The Tory manifesto promised to scrap free school lunches for infants in English primary schools, but such a hit on middle class voters now seems unlikely. The school funding crisis was a major issue in the campaign, so the manifesto promise to redirect more cash to schools may survive – and might even be improved. |
| The popularity of Labour’s pledge to scrap university tuition fees in England should give the Tories pause over allowing fees to rise further, and the manifesto promise of a major review of tertiary funding is likely to be dropped from a slimmed-down Queen’s speech. Richard Adams | The popularity of Labour’s pledge to scrap university tuition fees in England should give the Tories pause over allowing fees to rise further, and the manifesto promise of a major review of tertiary funding is likely to be dropped from a slimmed-down Queen’s speech. Richard Adams |
| Welfare and social care | Welfare and social care |
| The elderly and the self-employed will be the big beneficiaries of May’s rethink of the Conservative party manifesto to suit the demands of a hung parliament. The party’s manifesto announced that it would replace the triple lock on pensions, means test the winter fuel allowance and introduce what became known as a “dementia tax” to pay for long-term care. | The elderly and the self-employed will be the big beneficiaries of May’s rethink of the Conservative party manifesto to suit the demands of a hung parliament. The party’s manifesto announced that it would replace the triple lock on pensions, means test the winter fuel allowance and introduce what became known as a “dementia tax” to pay for long-term care. |
| The triple lock, under which the state pension rises in line with the highest of average earnings, the inflation rate or 2.5%, was to be replaced by a double lock based on earnings and inflation. The winter fuel payment was to be paid only to the poorest pensioners. The plan for social care involved people selling their homes until they had only £100,000 left in their estates. All three proposals are now likely to be scrapped, particularly given the opposition of the DUP to the first two. | The triple lock, under which the state pension rises in line with the highest of average earnings, the inflation rate or 2.5%, was to be replaced by a double lock based on earnings and inflation. The winter fuel payment was to be paid only to the poorest pensioners. The plan for social care involved people selling their homes until they had only £100,000 left in their estates. All three proposals are now likely to be scrapped, particularly given the opposition of the DUP to the first two. |
| The Conservative manifesto would also have given the chancellor, Philip Hammond, the scope to raise national insurance contributions for the self-employed, something he tried to do in his March budget but was prevented by the 2015 election promise not to raise income tax, VAT or NICs. | The Conservative manifesto would also have given the chancellor, Philip Hammond, the scope to raise national insurance contributions for the self-employed, something he tried to do in his March budget but was prevented by the 2015 election promise not to raise income tax, VAT or NICs. |
| May’s manifesto dropped the commitment not to raise NICs, giving Hammond the freedom to revisit his budget. With another election potentially looming, however, he will be in no hurry to do so. Larry Elliott | May’s manifesto dropped the commitment not to raise NICs, giving Hammond the freedom to revisit his budget. With another election potentially looming, however, he will be in no hurry to do so. Larry Elliott |
| Health | Health |
| The manifesto committed the Tories to supporting possibly the biggest centralisation of hospital services in England ever proposed, by backing the NHS’s Five Year Forward View blueprint. | The manifesto committed the Tories to supporting possibly the biggest centralisation of hospital services in England ever proposed, by backing the NHS’s Five Year Forward View blueprint. |
| The caveat was that such plans had to be “clinically led” and “locally supported”. The latter is rarely the case. Every NHS reconfiguration generates opposition from local people, MPs, councillors, staff or the media. | The caveat was that such plans had to be “clinically led” and “locally supported”. The latter is rarely the case. Every NHS reconfiguration generates opposition from local people, MPs, councillors, staff or the media. |
| Labour’s capture of Canterbury last week after 176 years in Tory hands, following the new MP Rosie Duffield’s vigorous defence of the Kent and Canterbury hospital, will inevitably prompt ministers to think hard in future before rubberstamping similar plans elsewhere. | Labour’s capture of Canterbury last week after 176 years in Tory hands, following the new MP Rosie Duffield’s vigorous defence of the Kent and Canterbury hospital, will inevitably prompt ministers to think hard in future before rubberstamping similar plans elsewhere. |
| May’s pledge early in the election campaign to replace the “flawed” Mental Health Act with fresh legislation is also under threat, but for a different reason. Mental health organisations were surprised when May unveiled the plan, because they do not share her view that the current act leads to too many people being detained. Denis Campbell | May’s pledge early in the election campaign to replace the “flawed” Mental Health Act with fresh legislation is also under threat, but for a different reason. Mental health organisations were surprised when May unveiled the plan, because they do not share her view that the current act leads to too many people being detained. Denis Campbell |