Can Theresa May survive as PM and how would Conservative MPs remove her as leader?
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Version 0 of 1. Theresa May is fighting for her political life, facing the anger of Conservative MPs and members for destroying her Commons majority after a botched election campaign. Now the Queen’s Speech could be delayed from next Monday, as cobbling together a deal to be propped up by the ultra-socially conservative Democratic Unionist Party (DUP) is proving more difficult than originally thought. Can the Prime Minister survive in No 10 – and will it mean yet another general election if she is forced out? As the incumbent prime minister – and as the leader of the party with the most seats – she has the first shot at forming a new government. Ms May remains as prime minister unless and until she loses a vote of confidence in the House of Commons, such as defeat on her Queen’s Speech. The Northern Ireland party appeared to resent Ms May’s attempt to bounce it into agreeing a deal had already been reached – forcing No 10 into an embarrassing retraction in the early hours of Sunday. The talks re-start on Tuesday, but all the indications are that the DUP will eventually sign up, in return for big extra funding for Northern Ireland. Yes they could. A vote of no confidence in her leadership will be triggered if 48 MPs write to Graham Brady, the chairman of the backbench 1922 Committee, to request it. Some have been sent already, it is believed. Ms May would be forced to resign if she then failed to win a majority in that vote. Over the weekend, George Osborne called the Prime Minister a “dead woman walking” and Nicky Morgan said she would be out within weeks – but both oppose her on Brexit, having been sacked. Anti-EU Tory MPs will support her as long as she sticks to her hard Brexit policy. Mr Brady himself said: “I don’t see any clamour from my colleagues for a leadership election.” It will take place at 5pm on Monday – having been brought forward by 24 hours. Ms May will have to appear contrite, accept she made serious mistakes and promise to be a different leader in future, working more closely with her Cabinet and backbenchers. But even if she receives the traditional happy banging of desks at the end, it does not mean she is safe other than in the short term. No. There was no immediate election when she replaced David Cameron last year and the Fixed Term Parliaments Act remains in place, requiring two thirds of MPs to vote for an early election. That would mean both the Conservatives and Labour would have to support it, as happened when last week’s election was called. Nevertheless, many Tories fear toppling Ms May would set off a chain of events making another election inevitable – with Jeremy Corbyn favourite to win it. If there is a vote of no confidence, all parties are given 14 days to form another government. If none can be formed, a new election is held. One poll at the weekend will have a sent a shiver down Ms May’s spine. Almost 60 per cent of grassroots Tories told the ConservativeHome website that the Prime Minister must fall on her sword – suggesting Conservative MPs will be facing strong pressure to mount a leadership challenge. However, only those MPs can act to bring her down. Impossible to say, but no one thinks the Conservative party will allow her to fight another general election. Beyond that, forecasts range from a few months to about a year, which would mean Britain switching leaders halfway through the Brexit talks – to Brussels’ horror no doubt. Outside No 10 on Friday, the Prime Minister claimed her new government would last the full five years – but minority administrations have an unhappy history, falling after just 10 months in 1924 and after just over two years in 1929. James Callaghan’s in the 1970s lasted for 17 months. They lack the stability of the Cameron-Clegg formal coalition, which went the full five years. It seems highly unlikely, especially as no other alliance of parties looks possible, given the Commons arithmetic. Put your money on an earlier election – at some point. |