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| Q&A: how will the UK election result affect Brexit talks? | Q&A: how will the UK election result affect Brexit talks? |
| (7 months later) | |
| Formal negotiations are due to begin soon, but the snap election has left Theresa May weakened. What happens now? | |
| Jennifer Rankin in Brussels | |
| Mon 12 Jun 2017 13.04 BST | |
| Last modified on Wed 20 Sep 2017 17.35 BST | |
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| Theresa May took the fateful decision to launch the EU exit process on 29 March. Less than a month later she called a snap election in a bid to improve her negotiating hand. Instead, she now finds herself in office, but not in power, a humiliated figure who has lost credibility at home and abroad. Despite the disastrous result, the prime minister says the government will begin Brexit negotiations this month as planned. | Theresa May took the fateful decision to launch the EU exit process on 29 March. Less than a month later she called a snap election in a bid to improve her negotiating hand. Instead, she now finds herself in office, but not in power, a humiliated figure who has lost credibility at home and abroad. Despite the disastrous result, the prime minister says the government will begin Brexit negotiations this month as planned. |
| What happens now? | What happens now? |
| Amid the political turmoil in London, diplomats on both the UK and EU side have maintained low-key contacts. Brussels diplomats are expecting to start informal “talks about talks” this week to agree on the negotiating format. “We have been clear that we want to make a start on negotiations and we continue to engage with official counterparts in the EU and Brussels ahead of the talks commencing,” said a spokesperson for the Department for Exiting the European Union (DexEU). | Amid the political turmoil in London, diplomats on both the UK and EU side have maintained low-key contacts. Brussels diplomats are expecting to start informal “talks about talks” this week to agree on the negotiating format. “We have been clear that we want to make a start on negotiations and we continue to engage with official counterparts in the EU and Brussels ahead of the talks commencing,” said a spokesperson for the Department for Exiting the European Union (DexEU). |
| Barring a new political crisis for May, both sides expect formal Brexit talks to begin soon, although probably not on 19 June, which is also the day of the Queen’s speech. Michel Barnier, the EU’s chief negotiator, has always said he expects talks to begin during the week of 19 June, leaving flexibility for the UK. | Barring a new political crisis for May, both sides expect formal Brexit talks to begin soon, although probably not on 19 June, which is also the day of the Queen’s speech. Michel Barnier, the EU’s chief negotiator, has always said he expects talks to begin during the week of 19 June, leaving flexibility for the UK. |
| Who is doing what? | Who is doing what? |
| The EU team is led by former French foreign minister Michel Barnier, who has had nine months to craft a position that unites the interests of the EU’s 27 countries. His deputy is Sabine Weyand, a German trade expert, widely respected in Brussels for her formidable grasp of detail and ability to keep sight of the bigger picture. | The EU team is led by former French foreign minister Michel Barnier, who has had nine months to craft a position that unites the interests of the EU’s 27 countries. His deputy is Sabine Weyand, a German trade expert, widely respected in Brussels for her formidable grasp of detail and ability to keep sight of the bigger picture. |
| David Davis, the Brexit secretary, and Oliver Robbins, the DexEU permanent secretary, are expected to be their counterparts, but the UK government has not confirmed this. Senior civil servant Simon Case joined the UK’s EU embassy in March to lead work on the new partnership with the bloc, but EU diplomats are unsure how he fits into the picture. | David Davis, the Brexit secretary, and Oliver Robbins, the DexEU permanent secretary, are expected to be their counterparts, but the UK government has not confirmed this. Senior civil servant Simon Case joined the UK’s EU embassy in March to lead work on the new partnership with the bloc, but EU diplomats are unsure how he fits into the picture. |
| Theresa May caused confusion when she told the European commission president, Jean-Claude Juncker, in April that she would be the UK’s lead negotiator, raising concerns that she did not appreciate the reality of the intense, week-long technical sessions the EU side is planning. | Theresa May caused confusion when she told the European commission president, Jean-Claude Juncker, in April that she would be the UK’s lead negotiator, raising concerns that she did not appreciate the reality of the intense, week-long technical sessions the EU side is planning. |
| What will they talk about? | What will they talk about? |
| The EU will insist the UK respects its schedule of “divorce first, trade talks second” – this means an early agreement on the divorce bill, citizens’ rights and the Irish border. Only when there is “sufficient progress” on each of these issues, will the UK will be allowed to start talking about a trade deal, possibly from October. Before the election Davis claimed the timing would be the “row of the summer”, but he will face opposition from the EU, who have no intention of rewriting their negotiating guidelines. | The EU will insist the UK respects its schedule of “divorce first, trade talks second” – this means an early agreement on the divorce bill, citizens’ rights and the Irish border. Only when there is “sufficient progress” on each of these issues, will the UK will be allowed to start talking about a trade deal, possibly from October. Before the election Davis claimed the timing would be the “row of the summer”, but he will face opposition from the EU, who have no intention of rewriting their negotiating guidelines. |
| How do the UK election results affect the talks? | How do the UK election results affect the talks? |
| The short answer from Brussels’ point of view is: they don’t. The EU’s red lines, as unanimously agreed by 27 leaders in April, remain unchanged, as they would have done if May had won a thumping majority. But the EU side fears that a weakened prime minister will no longer be able to bring her party to compromises, especially if she is reliant on the Brexit-backing Democratic Unionist party. Senior EU diplomats say they are in the dark about what the UK really wants, as the government has not sent Brussels a single position paper. The election has multiplied that uncertainty. | The short answer from Brussels’ point of view is: they don’t. The EU’s red lines, as unanimously agreed by 27 leaders in April, remain unchanged, as they would have done if May had won a thumping majority. But the EU side fears that a weakened prime minister will no longer be able to bring her party to compromises, especially if she is reliant on the Brexit-backing Democratic Unionist party. Senior EU diplomats say they are in the dark about what the UK really wants, as the government has not sent Brussels a single position paper. The election has multiplied that uncertainty. |
| Can the UK freeze article 50 talks? | Can the UK freeze article 50 talks? |
| Stopping the clock on the article 50 process sounds like an appealing idea, especially if MPs created a cross-party commission to run the negotiations. The problem is the article 50 countdown clock does not have a pause button. EU negotiators say they have no intention of freezing talks, arguing that this would make a mockery of the process by allowing the UK to dictate terms. Article 50, which was co-written by British diplomat John Kerr, was intended to do the opposite – protect the interests of the club from political manoeuvres of the departing state. | Stopping the clock on the article 50 process sounds like an appealing idea, especially if MPs created a cross-party commission to run the negotiations. The problem is the article 50 countdown clock does not have a pause button. EU negotiators say they have no intention of freezing talks, arguing that this would make a mockery of the process by allowing the UK to dictate terms. Article 50, which was co-written by British diplomat John Kerr, was intended to do the opposite – protect the interests of the club from political manoeuvres of the departing state. |
| Can the talks be extended? | Can the talks be extended? |
| Brexit talks can only be extended with the unanimous consent of all 27 EU countries. Several, such as France, have made it clear there will be no extra time, because they want the UK out before European elections due in mid-2019. The European parliament, which can veto the final deal, has also made the two-year deadline a strong red line. The best-case scenario for British negotiators is an extension of a few weeks. But that decision is unlikely to be taken until the end of the talks and requires the goodwill of all 27 countries. | Brexit talks can only be extended with the unanimous consent of all 27 EU countries. Several, such as France, have made it clear there will be no extra time, because they want the UK out before European elections due in mid-2019. The European parliament, which can veto the final deal, has also made the two-year deadline a strong red line. The best-case scenario for British negotiators is an extension of a few weeks. But that decision is unlikely to be taken until the end of the talks and requires the goodwill of all 27 countries. |
| Could article 50 be reversed? | Could article 50 be reversed? |
| Could a future British prime minister write another “Dear Donald” letter to tell the EU the UK has changed its mind and would like to remain after all? The famous treaty article is silent on this point. EU officials and lawyers have made the case for and against revoking article 50. Ultimately, it would be a political decision. Senior Brussels sources think it is possible, but only if all 27 member states agree, following an unambiguous request to stay from the UK before departure day in March 2019. For the British, that must surely mean another trip to the ballot box. | Could a future British prime minister write another “Dear Donald” letter to tell the EU the UK has changed its mind and would like to remain after all? The famous treaty article is silent on this point. EU officials and lawyers have made the case for and against revoking article 50. Ultimately, it would be a political decision. Senior Brussels sources think it is possible, but only if all 27 member states agree, following an unambiguous request to stay from the UK before departure day in March 2019. For the British, that must surely mean another trip to the ballot box. |
| Brexit | |
| General election 2017 | |
| European Union | |
| Europe | |
| Foreign policy | |
| Article 50 | |
| analysis | |
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