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The prime minister called a snap election to increase her majority, but it looks like she will be left with no majority at all.
The prime minister called a snap election to increase her majority, but instead she has been left trying to form a minority government with the backing of the Democratic Unionist party.
However, in her speech on Friday morning Theresa May signalled that the Conservatives hoped to hang on in government. The full picture across the UK has yet to emerge although the Tories have won the most seats.
In her speech on Friday morning Theresa May signalled that the Conservatives hoped to hang on in government.
To win outright, a party must in theory secure 326 of 650 seats in the House of Commons, gaining a majority and earning the right to form the next government.
To win outright, a party must in theory secure 326 of 650 seats in the House of Commons, gaining a majority and earning the right to form the next government.
As it stands, while the Conservatives are predicted to come very close to this total, with a forecasted 316 seats, they will not exceed it.
The Conservatives have won only 318 seats, eight short of that magic number 326, which delivers an overall majority and the keys to Downing Street.
So what happens now?
So what happens now?
We are heading for a hung parliament. The UK’s first-past-the-post electoral system means hung parliaments rarely happen in Britain, but it was the case following the 1974 election and most recently in 2010.
We are heading for a hung parliament. The UK’s first-past-the-post electoral system means balanced parliaments rarely happen in Britain, but it was the case following the 1974 election and most recently in 2010.
In the case of a hung parliament, the leader of the party with the most seats is given the opportunity to try to form a government. This can take two forms: one option is a formal coalition with other parties, in which the coalition partners share ministerial jobs and push through a shared agenda.
In the case of a hung parliament, the leader of the party with the most seats is given the opportunity to try to form a government. This can take two forms: one option is a formal coalition with other parties, in which the coalition partners share ministerial jobs and push through a shared agenda.
The other possibility is a more informal arrangement, known as “confidence and supply”, in which the smaller parties agree to support the main legislation, such as a budget and Queen’s speech put forward by the largest party but do formally take part in government.
The other possibility is a more informal arrangement, known as “confidence and supply”, in which the smaller parties agree to support the main legislation, such as a budget and Queen’s speech put forward by the largest party, but do not formally take part in government.
May or her successor as Conservative leader will have the chance to try to form a government. She could attempt to scramble together a formal coalition of other parties, possibly including the DUP, that would take her over the threshold needed to obtain a House of Commons majority. Alternatively she may try to lead a minority government if she can convince other parties to back her in a vote of confidence.
In this case, May has made clear she is going to try to strike a deal with the DUP’s 10 MPs. She will now spend the weekend trying to reach a detailed “confidence and supply” arrangement with the DUP before the Queen’s speech on 19 June. She has rejected the other option of a formal coalition.
If the Tories fail to form an alliance, Jeremy Corbyn could attempt to strike a deal with the SNP, the Lib Dems, the nationalist parties from Northern Ireland and the Greens. But this is an unlikely scenario.
Will that be enough?
When will this happen?
Although you need 326 MPs to reach a simple majority of the 650-seat House of Commons, in reality the number is actually smaller. The Speaker and his three deputies do not vote and the seven Sinn Féin MPs refuse to take their seats. This means that the working majority needed is actually 11 fewer at 315.
Attempts to form alliances have already begun behind the scenes and a deal could be declared within days. MPs will return to parliament on Monday. But nothing can be confirmed before MPs hold a vote of confidence in that government, which will not happen before 19 June.
The 318 Conservatives plus the 10 DUP MPs could therefore deliver a working majority of 13 with their combined strength of 328. This could be enough to allow May’s minority government to survive attrition through byelection losses until the long-delayed constituency boundary changes likely to come into effect in early 2019. These are widely expected to benefit the Conservatives.
If the Tories fail to form an alliance, Jeremy Corbyn could attempt to strike a deal with the Scottish National party, the Liberal Democrats, the nationalist parties from Northern Ireland and the Greens. But this is an unlikely scenario.
Could we be forced to have another general election?
Could we be forced to have another general election?
There is a possibility, yes. If any proposed new government fails to gain a majority of support in the House of Commons for a Queen’s speech, its proposed legislative programme, the UK would be forced to have another general election. This would probably be held sometime in August.
There is a possibility, yes. If any proposed new government fails to gain a majority of support in the House of Commons for a Queen’s speech, its proposed legislative programme, the UK would be forced to have another general election. This would probably be held in August.
When will we know the identity of our next prime minister?
It could be within days, or it could take weeks. According to the Hansard Society, coalition governments tend to form at times of national crisis and it can take weeks to settle upon who is the new prime minister.
On six occasions – January and December 1910, 1923, 1929, February 1974, and 2010 – a general election failed to produce outright victory for a single party. On five of these occasions, minority government followed; the exception was the Conservative-Lib Dem coalition that took office in 2010.
In four of these five instances the identity of the government and prime minister was not immediately clear.
In 2010, Gordon Brown held on to the premiership for six days as frantic negotiations took place, resigning only when it became clear that the Conservatives and Liberal Democrats had reached agreement on a viable coalition.
Should Theresa May stay or should she go?
Voters in Britain do not elect a prime minister. They elect MPs to represent them in the House of Commons. It is then for those elected MPs to determine who should form the government and occupy Downing Street. If no party secures an outright majority then the question becomes who “commands their confidence” to form a government.
What does “command confidence” mean in practice?
A government does not need to secure the positive support of a majority of MPs, only that no combination of parties can form a majority against it. With 650 MPs elected that should mean securing the support of a simple majority of 326 MPs. But 318 may be enough as the Speaker and his/her three deputies do not vote and the five Sinn Féin MPs will not take their seats.
What have the other parties said about a possible coalition?
The Liberal Democrats have consistently ruled out any coalition, creating the possibility of neither the Conservatives nor Labour being able to secure a coalition.
The SNP has shown more openness towards the idea of coalition government. Nicola Sturgeon, the party’s leader, previously told the BBC: “If there was to be a hung parliament of course we would look to be part of a progressive alliance that pursued progressive policies.”
The Green Party co-leader Caroline Lucas has said she would never prop up a Tory administration and would look to work with a Labour minority Government.
What should we know about the DUP?
The Democratic Unionist party, Northern Ireland’s biggest party with 10 MPs after the election, could hold the balance of power in the new parliament.
It is likely to be the Conservatives’ first move as they look to form a government without a majority. And it is likely to support the Tories as they attempt to do so.
The DUP has had a close relationship with May’s team and the Tory manifesto had already guaranteed that there was “no question of joint authority” with the Irish government over Northern Ireland.
Critics will say the party should be avoided for opposing the introduction of same-sex marriage in Northern Ireland, opposing moves to reverse climate change, as well as refusing to lift the ban on abortion.
As the Tories enter negotiations with the DUP, issues on the table are likely to revolve around strengthening the union. They could include a guarantee of continued funding of security and further investment into the province. The party has been a strong supporter of Brexit.
Leader Arlene Foster and other senior party figures have said the DUP would not join a coalition with Labour.
The party, alongside Sinn Féin, has made strong gains in the election at the expense of the SDLP and the Alliance party.
