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| Version 2 | Version 3 |
|---|---|
| Can you trust exit polls? | Can you trust exit polls? |
| (25 days later) | |
| Thursday night’s exit poll put the Conservatives on 314 seats. If this is correct then a combination of Labour (266), the Scottish National party (34) and the Liberal Democrats (14) would have exactly the same number of votes as Theresa May’s party. | Thursday night’s exit poll put the Conservatives on 314 seats. If this is correct then a combination of Labour (266), the Scottish National party (34) and the Liberal Democrats (14) would have exactly the same number of votes as Theresa May’s party. |
| A minority Tory government could probably rely on the votes of the 10 or so unionists from Northern Ireland, assuming the latter’s 2015 result is repeated. But a minority Labour-led government (or the “coalition of chaos”, as May called it), could rely on Plaid Cymru (3), the one Green MP and the SDLP (three in the last parliament). | A minority Tory government could probably rely on the votes of the 10 or so unionists from Northern Ireland, assuming the latter’s 2015 result is repeated. But a minority Labour-led government (or the “coalition of chaos”, as May called it), could rely on Plaid Cymru (3), the one Green MP and the SDLP (three in the last parliament). |
| Broadcasters have been using exit polls since at least 1974 and it is true that in the 1970s, 1980s and 1990s there were were some horrific misses. Here are the figures, showing how far the gap was between the predicted majority of the winning party and the actual majority. | Broadcasters have been using exit polls since at least 1974 and it is true that in the 1970s, 1980s and 1990s there were were some horrific misses. Here are the figures, showing how far the gap was between the predicted majority of the winning party and the actual majority. |
| October 1974 | October 1974 |
| ITN wrong by 12 | ITN wrong by 12 |
| BBC wrong by 132 | BBC wrong by 132 |
| 1979 | 1979 |
| ITN wrong by 20 | ITN wrong by 20 |
| BBC wrong by 29 | BBC wrong by 29 |
| 1983 | 1983 |
| ITN wrong by 28 | ITN wrong by 28 |
| BBC wrong by two | BBC wrong by two |
| 1987 | 1987 |
| ITN wrong by 34 | ITN wrong by 34 |
| BBC wrong by 76 | BBC wrong by 76 |
| 1992 | 1992 |
| ITN wrong by 62 | ITN wrong by 62 |
| BBC wrong by 70 | BBC wrong by 70 |
| 1997 | 1997 |
| ITN wrong by 20 | ITN wrong by 20 |
| BBC wrong by six | BBC wrong by six |
| But in the last decade and a half the exit polls have become much more accurate. | But in the last decade and a half the exit polls have become much more accurate. |
| 2001 | 2001 |
| ITN wrong by eight | ITN wrong by eight |
| BBC wrong by 10 | BBC wrong by 10 |
| From 2005 onwards there has been a joint exit poll, firstly commissioned for ITN and the BBC, and then, from 2010 onwards, for Sky too. Its record has been much better. | From 2005 onwards there has been a joint exit poll, firstly commissioned for ITN and the BBC, and then, from 2010 onwards, for Sky too. Its record has been much better. |
| 2005 | 2005 |
| Correct. It predicted a Labour majority of 66, which Labour got. | Correct. It predicted a Labour majority of 66, which Labour got. |
| 2010 | 2010 |
| Correct. It said the Tories would be 19 short of a majority, and they were. | Correct. It said the Tories would be 19 short of a majority, and they were. |
| 2015 | 2015 |
| Wrong by 22. It said the Tories would be 10 seats short of a majority, but they got a majority of 12. | Wrong by 22. It said the Tories would be 10 seats short of a majority, but they got a majority of 12. |
| This chart, posted on Twitter by the Spectator’s Fraser Nelson, makes the same point: | This chart, posted on Twitter by the Spectator’s Fraser Nelson, makes the same point: |
| Why we'll probably know the result at 10pm... https://t.co/jQuNfk9GWo pic.twitter.com/QNkyY7DXh6 | Why we'll probably know the result at 10pm... https://t.co/jQuNfk9GWo pic.twitter.com/QNkyY7DXh6 |