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Is U.K. the New Terrorism Target? Or Was It All Along? At Least One London Assailant Was on Police Radar, Exposing Gaps
(about 7 hours later)
LONDON — Now that Britain has suffered a third terrorist attack in three months, some have expressed shock and puzzlement at what appears to be a sudden campaign against the country. Why Britain? Why now? LONDON — Britain on Monday identified two of the three suspects in the weekend’s terrorist assault in London, including one who not only was well-known to the police but had a cameo in a television documentary on homegrown violent jihadists.
But Britain has actually been a terrorist target for years. Consider a few recent examples: A truck running over an American soldier at an air base in southeastern England. Two men on a moped spraying bullets in a drive-by shooting in West London. A knife attack marring Remembrance Day. The identifications immediately suggested that the police and intelligence services had missed a series of red flags in failing to stop the attack, which left seven people dead and dozens wounded in a nation still grappling with the Manchester concert bombing two weeks earlier.
Those plots may not be familiar for a simple reason: They were thwarted by the authorities and are among the 18 terrorist schemes that have been disrupted in Britain since 2013. Those figures are why experts say the three recent attacks are not harbingers of a sudden surge against Britain, but instead reflect the sober reality that plots were underway all the time. The terrorist attack on Saturday was the third to strike Britain in three months, all with the participation of radicalized British Muslims who had been on the radar of law enforcement but still plotted successfully.
“What’s got through is just the tip of the iceberg,” said Shiraz Maher, the deputy director of the International Center for the Study of Radicalization, at King’s College London, “and it’s an enormous iceberg.” The frequency of the attacks has created the impression of a sudden campaign against Britain hatched from within. But counterterrorism officials and others say the country has been a terrorist target for years. Even now, there are hundreds of investigations underway.
The security services have faced criticism after it became publicly known that the perpetrators of all three recent attacks were known to the authorities. Footage resurfaced on Monday of a Channel 4 documentary that aired last year, in which one of those suspected of carrying out the London Bridge attacks is seen among a group of men unveiling an Islamic State flag in a London park. But security officials say that the number of radicalized individuals has become unmanageable, taking into account those who have returned from fighting in Syria and those frustrated that they cannot travel there. What is not publicized, they say, is how many attacks are prevented in the plotting phases.
Britain had been largely free of terrorism for several years. The last major attack came in 2005, when suicide bombers coordinated an assault on London’s public transport system, killing 52. In 2013, two British-born men of Nigerian descent butchered Lee Rigby, a British soldier, in daylight on the streets of London. Yet compared with Belgium, France and Germany, where terrorism has become more commonplace in recent years, Britain had seemingly been spared. “What’s got through is just the tip of the iceberg,” said Shiraz Maher, deputy director of the International Center for the Study of Radicalization, at King’s College London. “And it’s an enormous iceberg.”
It has not been for lack of trying on the part of militants. “Terrorist groups have wanted to strike the United Kingdom for a long time, and they’ve been very persistent in their effort,” said Raffaello Pantucci, a specialist in counterterrorism at the London-based Royal United Services Institute. Mark Rowley, assistant commissioner of the Metropolitan Police, said after the attack on Westminster Bridge on March 22 that at least 13 plots had been broken up since 2013. Police and security officials say at least five others have been thwarted since then.
But the pace does appear to have intensified. Five terrorism plots have been stopped in the last two months alone. Recent examples, according to the police, include foiled conspiracies to crush American soldiers with a van at an air base in southeast England, a drive-by shooting in West London by two men on a moped, and a Remembrance Day knife assault.
One reason, officials said, may be the backdrop of an election campaign that has placed Britain in the international spotlight and that multiplies the impact of any attack. As in France, where a police officer was killed on the Champs-Élysées shortly before the recent presidential election, the attack on Saturday unfolded five days before Britons go to the polls. The three successful attacks reflect what counterterrorism experts call the reality that plots are underway all the time. And some contend that the number of radicalized individuals has become increasingly unmanageable, taking into account those who have returned from fighting in Syria and those frustrated that they cannot travel there.
“It’s political, it’s about trying to disrupt our democratic process,” said Nazir Afzal, a former chief crown prosecutor for the northwest area of England. Islamists in Britain have been distributing leaflets urging people not to vote, he said, adding, “They don’t believe in democracy.” The suspects in the most recent attack — Rachid Redouane, 30, and Khurum Shazad Butt, 27, along with a third assailant — plowed through London Bridge pedestrians in a van Saturday night, then stabbed patrons at bars and restaurants in nearby Borough Market. All three were shot dead by police officers.
Beyond that is the fact that terrorism often begets terrorism. Successful attacks have tended to inspire copycat acts in the past. Only two weeks after the attacks in London in 2005, for example, two militants tried to stage similar assaults, but their bombs failed to explode. Police officials said Mr. Butt had been known to them and to MI5, Britain’s domestic intelligence agency. More questions were raised Monday when footage resurfaced of a Channel 4 documentary broadcast last year, titled “The Jihadis Next Door,” in which Mr. Butt is seen among a group of men unveiling an Islamic State flag in London’s Regent’s Park.
With terrorists resorting to everyday items like kitchen knives or vehicles as their murder weapon, copycats have become an even more serious concern, Mr. Maher of King’s College London said. Britain had been largely free of terrorism for years. Before March, the last major attack was in 2005, when suicide bombers coordinated an assault on London’s public transit system, killing 52. In 2013, two British-born converts to Islam, of Nigerian descent, butchered Lee Rigby, a British soldier, in daylight on the streets of London. Yet compared with Belgium, France and Germany, where terrorism has become more common, Britain was seemingly spared.
“The way terrorism operates is that when a plot succeeds it then motivates like-minded other people to get involved themselves,” Mr. Maher said. “People who are sympathetic, people who think ‘If he could do it, I can do it.’” It was not for lack of trying on the part of militants. “Terrorist groups have wanted to strike the United Kingdom for a long time, and they’ve been very persistent in their effort,” said Raffaello Pantucci, a terrorism specialist at the London-based Royal United Services Institute.
“Right now, we’re in a particularly acute phase where three events have got through within a three-month period, and unlike in 2005, people aren’t having to consider making sophisticated bombs with multiple actors,” said Mr. Maher, the author of a new book called “Salafi-Jihadism.” Still, the pace appears to have intensified during an election campaign that has placed Britain in the international spotlight, multiplying the publicity of any attack. As in France, where a police officer was killed on the Champs-Élysées before the presidential election in April, the attack on Saturday happened five days before Britons go to the polls.
“It’s as simple as: Get a car and mow somebody down,” he added. “It’s political. It’s about trying to disrupt our democratic process,” said Nazir Afzal, a former chief crown prosecutor for the northwest area of England. Islamists in Britain have been distributing leaflets urging people not to vote, he said, adding, “They don’t believe in democracy.”
The recent series of attacks began on March 22, when Khalid Masood plowed a car into civilians on Westminster bridge, before jumping out and fatally stabbing a police officer outside Parliament. (Mr. Masood was shot dead by the security forces.) About a month later, another man, carrying a backpack containing several knives, was arrested near the prime minister’s residence on suspicion of planning a stabbing assault. And comparisons have already been made between the Westminster attack and the assault on London Bridge and Borough Market, which also involved a vehicle and stabbings. Beyond that is terrorism’s tendency to propagate itself. Successful attacks sometimes inspire copycat acts or are designed to unfold in waves. Two weeks after the attacks in London in 2005, for example, two militants attempted similar assaults, but their bombs failed.
The Islamic State, also known as ISIS or ISIL, has long encouraged this type of crude, unsophisticated attack. Two months ago, the group put out a message telling supporters to use fake bomb vests, knives and trucks to kill “crusaders” during the holy month of Ramadan. With terrorists resorting to everyday items like kitchen knives or vehicles as weapons, copycats have become an even more serious concern, Mr. Maher of King’s College London said.
In Britain, the authorities have released only scant details about the plots they have disrupted in recent years. One was planned for 2013, Mr. Pantucci said, when a group of men suspected of having returned from fighting in Syria planned to commit a mass shooting but were arrested. Another involved one of the most notorious British plotters and recruiters, Junaid Hussain, a computer hacker from Birmingham, England, who was prosecuted in 2012 and convicted on charges that he illegally gained access to former Prime Minister Tony Blair’s address book the year before. In 2015, Mr. Hussain recruited a young delivery van driver from Luton and directed him in the foiled plot to attack American soldiers at an air base. “The way terrorism operates is that when a plot succeeds, it then motivates like-minded other people to get involved themselves,” he said. “People who are sympathetic, people who think, ‘If he could do it, I can do it.’”
“You troll around online, you find people who are radicalized, you connect with them and then you instigate them to do a plot,” Mr. Pantucci said, explaining how such plotters worked. “He walked them through actually doing the operation, and then you hope that they actually go and do it.” “Right now, we’re in a particularly acute phase where three events have got through within a three-month period, and unlike in 2005, people aren’t having to consider making sophisticated bombs with multiple actors,” said Mr. Maher, the author of a new book called “Salafi-Jihadism.” “It’s as simple as: Get a car and mow somebody down.”
Mr. Hussain was killed in a drone strike in Syria in 2015, after British intelligence services discovered his involvement in recruiting people for several major plots that year. Comparisons have been made between the attack on Saturday and the one on March 22, when a Briton, Khalid Masood, plowed a car into civilians on Westminster Bridge and fatally stabbed a police officer outside Parliament before he was shot dead.
Also in 2015, two university students were caught planning a drive-by attack on a police station and army barracks in West London. The students, Tarik Hassane, who had once wanted to be a heart surgeon, and his friend Suhaib Majeed, a physics student, were arrested after a surveillance team observed them buying a semiautomatic pistol with silencer and bullets. Another man, Nadir Syed, from West London, was arrested in November 2014 after he was suspected of planning a knife attack at Remembrance Day celebrations the same month. About a month later, a man carrying a backpack full of knives was arrested near Prime Minister Theresa May’s residence on suspicion of planning a stabbing.
In many ways, Britain has a good track record when it comes to preventing radicalization and terrorism. Despite an infamous (and true) statistic that more British Muslims have joined the Islamic State in Syria than have joined the British Army, the per capita count of those defecting to Syria is lower than in Belgium and France, experts say. A police program for detecting radicalization, called Prevent, has a toxic reputation in Muslim communities in Britain, but it has been studied by other European countries as exemplary practice. The Islamic State, also known as ISIS or ISIL, has long encouraged this type of crude attack. Two months ago, the group’s propaganda wing exhorted supporters to use fake bomb vests, knives and trucks to kill “crusaders” during the holy month of Ramadan.
Still, the security services are stretched. With about 500 principal investigations of active plotters, 3,000 further people of interest on the radar and 20,000 others with vague links to militancy, there are limits to resources. The British authorities have released few details about the plots they have disrupted in recent years. In 2013, Mr. Pantucci said, a group of men believed to have returned from fighting in Syria planned to commit a mass shooting but were arrested.
Another scheme involved one of the most notorious British plotters and recruiters, Junaid Hussain, a computer hacker from Birmingham, England, who was prosecuted in 2012 and convicted on charges that he had illegally gained access to former Prime Minister Tony Blair’s address book the year before. In 2015, Mr. Hussain recruited a young delivery van driver from Luton and directed him in the foiled plot to attack American soldiers at an air base.
“You troll around online, you find people who are radicalized, you connect with them, and then you instigate them to do a plot,” Mr. Pantucci said. “He walked them through actually doing the operation, and then you hope that they actually go and do it.”
Mr. Hussain was killed in a drone strike in Syria in 2015, after the British intelligence services discovered his involvement in recruiting people for several major plots that year.
Also in 2015, two university students were caught planning a drive-by attack on a police station and army barracks in West London. The pair — Tarik Hassane, who once wanted to be a heart surgeon, and his friend Suhaib Majeed, a physics major — were arrested after a surveillance team observed them buying a semiautomatic pistol with a silencer and bullets. Another man, Nadir Syed of West London, was arrested in November 2014, suspected of planning a knife attack at Remembrance Day celebrations that month.
In many ways, Britain has a good record in preventing radicalization and terrorism. Despite an infamous statistic that more British Muslims have joined the Islamic State in Syria than have joined the British Army, the per capita count of those defecting to Syria is lower than in countries like Belgium and France, experts say.
A police program for detecting radicalization, called Prevent, has a toxic reputation in Muslim communities in Britain but is considered exemplary by other European countries.
Still, the security services are stretched. There are about 500 principal investigations of active plotters, 3,000 further people of interest on the radar and more than 20,000 others with vague links to militancy, and resources to keep tabs on suspects are limited.
“It’s a very big threat picture,” Mr. Pantucci said.“It’s a very big threat picture,” Mr. Pantucci said.