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| Pound hits two-month low against the euro after election poll gap narrows - business live | Pound hits two-month low against the euro after election poll gap narrows - business live |
| (35 minutes later) | |
| 10.36am BST | |
| 10:36 | |
| Bloomberg have created a neat graphic, highlighting how the pound is sensitive to next month’s election victory. | |
| A big Conservative victory is likely to drive sterling up, but a narrow win (or even a hung parliament) would spark a selloff. | |
| So YouGov’s poll could potentially put sterling “in the trouble zone”, says Neil Jones, head of hedge-fund sales at Mizuho Bank. | |
| “Sterling correlates well with anything that shows a Tory majority and vice versa, so if you’ve got this situation where the majority closes right down, it may come to a critical level where it may not have a sufficient number of seats in the house. The market doesn’t like that.” | |
| More here. | |
| 10.16am BST | |
| 10:16 | |
| Michael Hewson of CMC Markets says there is “increased nervousness” in the City over the Brexit negotiations, which should begin shortly after the election. | |
| None of the parties appears to have either a coherent plan for a post Brexit Britain, or any vision of a coherent leadership. | |
| While mid-campaign polling wobbles are nothing new, take the rogue Scottish referendum poll in 2014, neither of the main parties appears to have manifestoes which appear to add up with the Institute of Fiscal Studies criticising both. | |
| 9.53am BST | 9.53am BST |
| 09:53 | 09:53 |
| FTSE 250 hits record high too | FTSE 250 hits record high too |
| We also have a fresh record high on the FTSE 250 index, which contains medium-sized UK-focused companies. | We also have a fresh record high on the FTSE 250 index, which contains medium-sized UK-focused companies. |
| The FTSE 250 has romped over the 20,000 point mark for the first time ever this morning, extending its recent rally. | The FTSE 250 has romped over the 20,000 point mark for the first time ever this morning, extending its recent rally. |
| Restaurant Group (owner of Frankie & Benny’s) has jumped 9% after reporting better sales figures than the City feared (like-for-like takings only fell by 1.8%) | Restaurant Group (owner of Frankie & Benny’s) has jumped 9% after reporting better sales figures than the City feared (like-for-like takings only fell by 1.8%) |
| #FTSE250 a new record at 20,000 level | #FTSE250 a new record at 20,000 level |
| 9.41am BST | 9.41am BST |
| 09:41 | 09:41 |
| The City fears a hung parliament | The City fears a hung parliament |
| The Tory’s shrinking poll lead is raising concerns that no party might win an overall majority in June’s election, says Nomura strategist Jordan Rochester. | The Tory’s shrinking poll lead is raising concerns that no party might win an overall majority in June’s election, says Nomura strategist Jordan Rochester. |
| Rochester explains: | Rochester explains: |
| “Sterling is likely to continue to be under pressure now until the election is out of the way, if polling continues to indicate it’s a tighter race.” | “Sterling is likely to continue to be under pressure now until the election is out of the way, if polling continues to indicate it’s a tighter race.” |
| “For the market the worst outcome is if we have further uncertainty with the chances of a hung parliament.” | “For the market the worst outcome is if we have further uncertainty with the chances of a hung parliament.” |
| That uncertainty is keeping the pound pinned at a two-month low against the euro: | That uncertainty is keeping the pound pinned at a two-month low against the euro: |
| 9.38am BST | 9.38am BST |
| 09:38 | 09:38 |
| Here’s more details of the YouGocv poll that has sent the pound dropping: | Here’s more details of the YouGocv poll that has sent the pound dropping: |
| Campaigning resuming in earnest for UK #GeneralElection: Conservative lead cut to just 5% in latest poll @thetimes https://t.co/K4L7Cwio10 pic.twitter.com/6TEaFsnhr1 | Campaigning resuming in earnest for UK #GeneralElection: Conservative lead cut to just 5% in latest poll @thetimes https://t.co/K4L7Cwio10 pic.twitter.com/6TEaFsnhr1 |
| 9.25am BST | 9.25am BST |
| 09:25 | 09:25 |
| IFS: Politicians aren't being honest on the econmy | IFS: Politicians aren't being honest on the econmy |
| In other election news, an influential economic thinktank has warned that neither of the two major parties are being totally honest with the public over the state of the UK economy. | In other election news, an influential economic thinktank has warned that neither of the two major parties are being totally honest with the public over the state of the UK economy. |
| After analysing the election manifestos, the Institute of Fiscal Studies has given both Labour and the Conservatives a poor score. | After analysing the election manifestos, the Institute of Fiscal Studies has given both Labour and the Conservatives a poor score. |
| As IFS deputy director Carl Emmerson puts it: | As IFS deputy director Carl Emmerson puts it: |
| “The shame of the two big parties’ manifestos is that neither sets out an honest set of choices.” | “The shame of the two big parties’ manifestos is that neither sets out an honest set of choices.” |
| The Conservatives are simply offering the public “the cuts already promised”, says the IFS: | The Conservatives are simply offering the public “the cuts already promised”, says the IFS: |
| “Compared with Labour, they are offering a relatively smaller state and consequently lower taxes. With that offer come unacknowledged risks to the quality of public services, and tough choices over spending.” | “Compared with Labour, they are offering a relatively smaller state and consequently lower taxes. With that offer come unacknowledged risks to the quality of public services, and tough choices over spending.” |
| But the IFS are also critical of Jeremy Corbyn’s economic plans; saying they would inevitably lead to higher taxes. | But the IFS are also critical of Jeremy Corbyn’s economic plans; saying they would inevitably lead to higher taxes. |
| “For Labour we can have pretty much everything - free higher education, free childcare, more spending on pay, health, infrastructure. | “For Labour we can have pretty much everything - free higher education, free childcare, more spending on pay, health, infrastructure. |
| “And the pretence is that can all be funded by faceless corporations and ‘the rich’. | “And the pretence is that can all be funded by faceless corporations and ‘the rich’. |
| Our Politics liveblog has more details: | Our Politics liveblog has more details: |
| 9.16am BST | 9.16am BST |
| 09:16 | 09:16 |
| 9.03am BST | 9.03am BST |
| 09:03 | 09:03 |
| FTSE 100 hits new intraday high | FTSE 100 hits new intraday high |
| Newsflash! The FTSE 100 has just hit a new all-time high. | Newsflash! The FTSE 100 has just hit a new all-time high. |
| The blue-chip index has just nudged 7534 for the first time ever, thanks to the weak pound. | The blue-chip index has just nudged 7534 for the first time ever, thanks to the weak pound. |
| 8.48am BST | 8.48am BST |
| 08:48 | 08:48 |
| Ironically, the drop in sterling is helping Britain’s stock market outperform the rest of Europe. | Ironically, the drop in sterling is helping Britain’s stock market outperform the rest of Europe. |
| Most European markets are in the red, dragged down by energy companies (who have fallen following the drop in the oil price). | Most European markets are in the red, dragged down by energy companies (who have fallen following the drop in the oil price). |
| But the FTSE 100 has gained a handful of points, thanks to multinational firms who benefit from a weak pound. | But the FTSE 100 has gained a handful of points, thanks to multinational firms who benefit from a weak pound. |
| Updated | Updated |
| at 8.48am BST | at 8.48am BST |
| 8.36am BST | 8.36am BST |
| 08:36 | 08:36 |
| The Conservative’s shrinking election lead is the main story in the City this morning, reports Connor Campbell of SpreadEx: | The Conservative’s shrinking election lead is the main story in the City this morning, reports Connor Campbell of SpreadEx: |
| The most notable move came from sterling, which plunged half a percent against both the dollar, taking cable to a near 2 week low, and the euro, where the pound now sits at its worst price in around 2 months. The reason for this fall? Well, the latest election poll, conducted by YouGov for The Times, has seen the Tories’ lead slashed to just 5 points, with Labour continuing to mount a post-manifesto release comeback. | The most notable move came from sterling, which plunged half a percent against both the dollar, taking cable to a near 2 week low, and the euro, where the pound now sits at its worst price in around 2 months. The reason for this fall? Well, the latest election poll, conducted by YouGov for The Times, has seen the Tories’ lead slashed to just 5 points, with Labour continuing to mount a post-manifesto release comeback. |
| Any growth managed by sterling since April has largely been predicated on the assumption that the Conservatives would secure a landslide victory. That this presently doesn’t seem to be the case has helped further erode confidence in the currency’s current position. | Any growth managed by sterling since April has largely been predicated on the assumption that the Conservatives would secure a landslide victory. That this presently doesn’t seem to be the case has helped further erode confidence in the currency’s current position. |
| 8.26am BST | 8.26am BST |
| 08:26 | 08:26 |
| Sterling has also hit a two-month low against the euro, down 0.4% to €1.148. | Sterling has also hit a two-month low against the euro, down 0.4% to €1.148. |
| 8.24am BST | 8.24am BST |
| 08:24 | 08:24 |
| 8.16am BST | 8.16am BST |
| 08:16 | 08:16 |
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| 7.48am BST | 7.48am BST |
| 07:48 | 07:48 |
| The agenda: YouGov poll hits pound | The agenda: YouGov poll hits pound |
| Good morning, and welcome to our rolling coverage of the world economy, the financial markets, the eurozone and business. | Good morning, and welcome to our rolling coverage of the world economy, the financial markets, the eurozone and business. |
| A bout of general election jitters have sent sterling down to a two-week low this morning. | A bout of general election jitters have sent sterling down to a two-week low this morning. |
| The pound has lost almost a cent against the US dollar, after an opinion poll suggested that Conservative Party’s lead over Labour has narrowed to just five points. | The pound has lost almost a cent against the US dollar, after an opinion poll suggested that Conservative Party’s lead over Labour has narrowed to just five points. |
| Exclusive: Tory lead over Labour down to FIVE points in new YouGov/Times poll conducted Wed/ Thu this week, down from 9 points last Thur/Fri pic.twitter.com/sNIkbnspqd | Exclusive: Tory lead over Labour down to FIVE points in new YouGov/Times poll conducted Wed/ Thu this week, down from 9 points last Thur/Fri pic.twitter.com/sNIkbnspqd |
| The latest survey, from YouGov, has knocked the pound down by over half a cent against the US dollar to $1.2858, a two week low, and the biggest one-day fall since early May. | The latest survey, from YouGov, has knocked the pound down by over half a cent against the US dollar to $1.2858, a two week low, and the biggest one-day fall since early May. |
| The poll is shaking the City’s confidence that Theresa May will win a large majority, possibly a landslide, on June 8th. That fuels concerns that Brexit could be even messier than feared, if May doesn’t have the substantial ‘mandate’ she is demanding. | The poll is shaking the City’s confidence that Theresa May will win a large majority, possibly a landslide, on June 8th. That fuels concerns that Brexit could be even messier than feared, if May doesn’t have the substantial ‘mandate’ she is demanding. |
| Craig Erlam, senior market analyst at foreign exchange firm OANDA, says the poll could be signalling a shock Labour victory: | Craig Erlam, senior market analyst at foreign exchange firm OANDA, says the poll could be signalling a shock Labour victory: |
| Sterling fell again overnight after a poll showed the gap between Theresa May’s Conservatives and Jeremy Corbyn’s Labour party has narrowed again. The lead – which only a few weeks ago stood at around 20 points – has fallen dramatically to just five according to this YouGov poll. | Sterling fell again overnight after a poll showed the gap between Theresa May’s Conservatives and Jeremy Corbyn’s Labour party has narrowed again. The lead – which only a few weeks ago stood at around 20 points – has fallen dramatically to just five according to this YouGov poll. |
| With this kind of momentum and almost two weeks to go until the vote, not only is this not going to be the breeze that May anticipated when she called the snap election last month, it could yet turn into a humiliating defeat for the Conservative leader and her party. | With this kind of momentum and almost two weeks to go until the vote, not only is this not going to be the breeze that May anticipated when she called the snap election last month, it could yet turn into a humiliating defeat for the Conservative leader and her party. |
| However, Royal Bank of Canada don’t think the situation is quite that bad for the Tories. | However, Royal Bank of Canada don’t think the situation is quite that bad for the Tories. |
| We note that the YouGov polls have tended to show a smaller Conservative lead than most of the other polls in recent weeks and also that YouGov says the swing in the latest poll is probably due to Conservative manifesto commitments, some of which have changed subsequently. | We note that the YouGov polls have tended to show a smaller Conservative lead than most of the other polls in recent weeks and also that YouGov says the swing in the latest poll is probably due to Conservative manifesto commitments, some of which have changed subsequently. |
| Campaigning for the June 8 general election recommences today and there will likely be a large number of opinion polls over the weekend, so this picture could change either way in the next few days. | Campaigning for the June 8 general election recommences today and there will likely be a large number of opinion polls over the weekend, so this picture could change either way in the next few days. |
| Our Politics Live blog will be tracking all the action from the campaign trail, here: | Our Politics Live blog will be tracking all the action from the campaign trail, here: |
| Also coming up | Also coming up |
| Disappointment continues to ripple through the oil markets, after Opec and non-Opec members agreed to cut production for another nine months. | Disappointment continues to ripple through the oil markets, after Opec and non-Opec members agreed to cut production for another nine months. |
| Crude prices are down this morning, after tumbling around 4% yesterday, seemingly on disappointment that a more radical deal wasn’t agreed. | Crude prices are down this morning, after tumbling around 4% yesterday, seemingly on disappointment that a more radical deal wasn’t agreed. |
| Otherwise it looks like a quiet day, as City workers prepare for the bank holiday weekend. But there is some American economic data coming up, including a second estimate of US growth in the first quarter. | Otherwise it looks like a quiet day, as City workers prepare for the bank holiday weekend. But there is some American economic data coming up, including a second estimate of US growth in the first quarter. |
| 1.30pm BST: Second estimate of US GDP for Q1 2017 | 1.30pm BST: Second estimate of US GDP for Q1 2017 |
| 3pm BST: University of Michigan consumer confidence | 3pm BST: University of Michigan consumer confidence |
| 6pm BST: Baker Hughes count of US oil rigs | 6pm BST: Baker Hughes count of US oil rigs |
| Updated | Updated |
| at 8.20am BST | at 8.20am BST |