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| Pound hits two-month low against the euro after election poll gap narrows - business live | |
| (35 minutes later) | |
| 8.48am BST | |
| 08:48 | |
| Ironically, the drop in sterling is helping Britain’s stock market outperform the rest of Europe. | |
| Most European markets are in the red, dragged down by energy companies (who have fallen following the drop in the oil price). | |
| But the FTSE 100 has gained a handful of points, thanks to multinational firms who benefit from a weak pound. | |
| Updated | |
| at 8.48am BST | |
| 8.36am BST | |
| 08:36 | |
| The Conservative’s shrinking election lead is the main story in the City this morning, reports Connor Campbell of SpreadEx: | |
| The most notable move came from sterling, which plunged half a percent against both the dollar, taking cable to a near 2 week low, and the euro, where the pound now sits at its worst price in around 2 months. The reason for this fall? Well, the latest election poll, conducted by YouGov for The Times, has seen the Tories’ lead slashed to just 5 points, with Labour continuing to mount a post-manifesto release comeback. | |
| Any growth managed by sterling since April has largely been predicated on the assumption that the Conservatives would secure a landslide victory. That this presently doesn’t seem to be the case has helped further erode confidence in the currency’s current position. | |
| 8.26am BST | 8.26am BST |
| 08:26 | 08:26 |
| Sterling has also hit a two-month low against the euro, down 0.4% to €1.148. | Sterling has also hit a two-month low against the euro, down 0.4% to €1.148. |
| 8.24am BST | 8.24am BST |
| 08:24 | 08:24 |
| 8.16am BST | 8.16am BST |
| 08:16 | 08:16 |
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| 7.48am BST | 7.48am BST |
| 07:48 | 07:48 |
| The agenda: YouGov poll hits pound | The agenda: YouGov poll hits pound |
| Good morning, and welcome to our rolling coverage of the world economy, the financial markets, the eurozone and business. | Good morning, and welcome to our rolling coverage of the world economy, the financial markets, the eurozone and business. |
| A bout of general election jitters have sent sterling down to a two-week low this morning. | A bout of general election jitters have sent sterling down to a two-week low this morning. |
| The pound has lost almost a cent against the US dollar, after an opinion poll suggested that Conservative Party’s lead over Labour has narrowed to just five points. | The pound has lost almost a cent against the US dollar, after an opinion poll suggested that Conservative Party’s lead over Labour has narrowed to just five points. |
| Exclusive: Tory lead over Labour down to FIVE points in new YouGov/Times poll conducted Wed/ Thu this week, down from 9 points last Thur/Fri pic.twitter.com/sNIkbnspqd | Exclusive: Tory lead over Labour down to FIVE points in new YouGov/Times poll conducted Wed/ Thu this week, down from 9 points last Thur/Fri pic.twitter.com/sNIkbnspqd |
| The latest survey, from YouGov, has knocked the pound down by over half a cent against the US dollar to $1.2858, a two week low, and the biggest one-day fall since early May. | The latest survey, from YouGov, has knocked the pound down by over half a cent against the US dollar to $1.2858, a two week low, and the biggest one-day fall since early May. |
| The poll is shaking the City’s confidence that Theresa May will win a large majority, possibly a landslide, on June 8th. That fuels concerns that Brexit could be even messier than feared, if May doesn’t have the substantial ‘mandate’ she is demanding. | The poll is shaking the City’s confidence that Theresa May will win a large majority, possibly a landslide, on June 8th. That fuels concerns that Brexit could be even messier than feared, if May doesn’t have the substantial ‘mandate’ she is demanding. |
| Craig Erlam, senior market analyst at foreign exchange firm OANDA, says the poll could be signalling a shock Labour victory: | Craig Erlam, senior market analyst at foreign exchange firm OANDA, says the poll could be signalling a shock Labour victory: |
| Sterling fell again overnight after a poll showed the gap between Theresa May’s Conservatives and Jeremy Corbyn’s Labour party has narrowed again. The lead – which only a few weeks ago stood at around 20 points – has fallen dramatically to just five according to this YouGov poll. | Sterling fell again overnight after a poll showed the gap between Theresa May’s Conservatives and Jeremy Corbyn’s Labour party has narrowed again. The lead – which only a few weeks ago stood at around 20 points – has fallen dramatically to just five according to this YouGov poll. |
| With this kind of momentum and almost two weeks to go until the vote, not only is this not going to be the breeze that May anticipated when she called the snap election last month, it could yet turn into a humiliating defeat for the Conservative leader and her party. | With this kind of momentum and almost two weeks to go until the vote, not only is this not going to be the breeze that May anticipated when she called the snap election last month, it could yet turn into a humiliating defeat for the Conservative leader and her party. |
| However, Royal Bank of Canada don’t think the situation is quite that bad for the Tories. | However, Royal Bank of Canada don’t think the situation is quite that bad for the Tories. |
| We note that the YouGov polls have tended to show a smaller Conservative lead than most of the other polls in recent weeks and also that YouGov says the swing in the latest poll is probably due to Conservative manifesto commitments, some of which have changed subsequently. | We note that the YouGov polls have tended to show a smaller Conservative lead than most of the other polls in recent weeks and also that YouGov says the swing in the latest poll is probably due to Conservative manifesto commitments, some of which have changed subsequently. |
| Campaigning for the June 8 general election recommences today and there will likely be a large number of opinion polls over the weekend, so this picture could change either way in the next few days. | Campaigning for the June 8 general election recommences today and there will likely be a large number of opinion polls over the weekend, so this picture could change either way in the next few days. |
| Our Politics Live blog will be tracking all the action from the campaign trail, here: | Our Politics Live blog will be tracking all the action from the campaign trail, here: |
| Also coming up | Also coming up |
| Disappointment continues to ripple through the oil markets, after Opec and non-Opec members agreed to cut production for another nine months. | Disappointment continues to ripple through the oil markets, after Opec and non-Opec members agreed to cut production for another nine months. |
| Crude prices are down this morning, after tumbling around 4% yesterday, seemingly on disappointment that a more radical deal wasn’t agreed. | Crude prices are down this morning, after tumbling around 4% yesterday, seemingly on disappointment that a more radical deal wasn’t agreed. |
| Otherwise it looks like a quiet day, as City workers prepare for the bank holiday weekend. But there is some American economic data coming up, including a second estimate of US growth in the first quarter. | Otherwise it looks like a quiet day, as City workers prepare for the bank holiday weekend. But there is some American economic data coming up, including a second estimate of US growth in the first quarter. |
| 1.30pm BST: Second estimate of US GDP for Q1 2017 | 1.30pm BST: Second estimate of US GDP for Q1 2017 |
| 3pm BST: University of Michigan consumer confidence | 3pm BST: University of Michigan consumer confidence |
| 6pm BST: Baker Hughes count of US oil rigs | 6pm BST: Baker Hughes count of US oil rigs |
| Updated | Updated |
| at 8.20am BST | at 8.20am BST |