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You can find the current article at its original source at https://www.theguardian.com/business/live/2017/may/25/oil-price-as-opec-ministers-meeting-output-deal-business-live
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| UK lags behind Europe as growth revised down to 0.2% - business live | UK lags behind Europe as growth revised down to 0.2% - business live |
| (35 minutes later) | |
| 11.46am BST | |
| 11:46 | |
| The next government needs to boost investment and drive up wages, says TUC General Secretary Frances O’Grady. | |
| Here’s her take on the slowdown in UK growth in the last quarter: | |
| “This is a very worrying sign of the squeeze that families are feeling. Prices are rising faster than earnings, and households are getting deeper into debt. | |
| “The next government will inherit an economy that needs serious attention. An urgent priority must be to reverse the current fall in living standards. The minimum wage must go up faster, and the pay restrictions on public servants like nurses, firefighters and midwives must be ended. | |
| “It is also vital for Britain to increase investment in communities where good jobs are in short supply. More investment is needed in skills, transport links, broadband, decent homes and high quality public services.” | |
| The TUC has published analysis this morning (Thursday) showing that unsecured debt per UK household will reach a record high this year of £13,900. This exceeds the pre-crisis peak of £13,300 in 2007. | |
| 11.13am BST | 11.13am BST |
| 11:13 | 11:13 |
| Uncertainty over Britain’s looming exit from the European Union may have hit the economy, says ING’s James Knightley: | Uncertainty over Britain’s looming exit from the European Union may have hit the economy, says ING’s James Knightley: |
| We weren't expecting this: UK GDP growth revised lower (0.2% in Q117 v est 0.3%). But mixed messages - could be down to #Brexit uncertainty. pic.twitter.com/6HwDkzR29y | We weren't expecting this: UK GDP growth revised lower (0.2% in Q117 v est 0.3%). But mixed messages - could be down to #Brexit uncertainty. pic.twitter.com/6HwDkzR29y |
| 10.55am BST | 10.55am BST |
| 10:55 | 10:55 |
| UK lagging behind Europe | UK lagging behind Europe |
| Today’s growth downgrade means that Britain was one of the worst-performing advanced economies in the first three months of this year. | Today’s growth downgrade means that Britain was one of the worst-performing advanced economies in the first three months of this year. |
| Only Italy and America did as badly as the UK; they also grew by around 0.2% in Q1 2017. | Only Italy and America did as badly as the UK; they also grew by around 0.2% in Q1 2017. |
| France expanded by 0.3%, Japan managed 0.5%, while Germany posted healthy growth of 0.6% and Spain’s GDP surged by 0.8%. | France expanded by 0.3%, Japan managed 0.5%, while Germany posted healthy growth of 0.6% and Spain’s GDP surged by 0.8%. |
| The Eurozone and the EU both grew by 0.5%. | The Eurozone and the EU both grew by 0.5%. |
| Updated | Updated |
| at 10.56am BST | at 10.56am BST |
| 10.46am BST | 10.46am BST |
| 10:46 | 10:46 |
| Sky News’s Ed Conway has dug into today’s GDP data, and discovered that things are even worse than we thought. | Sky News’s Ed Conway has dug into today’s GDP data, and discovered that things are even worse than we thought. |
| The UK actually grew by just 0.18% during Q1 (which was rounded up to 0.2%), which is the worst performance in over four years. | The UK actually grew by just 0.18% during Q1 (which was rounded up to 0.2%), which is the worst performance in over four years. |
| Actually, if you go back two decimal places, Q1 2017 GDP (0.18%) was weaker than Q1 2016 (0.19%). In fact it was the weakest since Q4 2012 pic.twitter.com/SQHATRE7cz | Actually, if you go back two decimal places, Q1 2017 GDP (0.18%) was weaker than Q1 2016 (0.19%). In fact it was the weakest since Q4 2012 pic.twitter.com/SQHATRE7cz |
| 10.44am BST | 10.44am BST |
| 10:44 | 10:44 |
| John Hawksworth, chief economist at PwC, is concerned by the sharp slowdown in UK growth. | John Hawksworth, chief economist at PwC, is concerned by the sharp slowdown in UK growth. |
| “Today’s GDP data indicate that the economy slowed even more than previously estimated in the first quarter of 2017, as consumer spending power was squeezed by rising prices. | “Today’s GDP data indicate that the economy slowed even more than previously estimated in the first quarter of 2017, as consumer spending power was squeezed by rising prices. |
| Excluding population growth, real GDP per head - the broadest measure of living standards in the economy - flatlined in the first quarter. | Excluding population growth, real GDP per head - the broadest measure of living standards in the economy - flatlined in the first quarter. |
| “Estimated GDP growth in Q1 2017 was revised down from 0.3% to 0.2% and further detail was released confirming that the slowdown was focused on consumer spending and related industry sectors such as retailing, hotels and restaurants, transport and communications. | “Estimated GDP growth in Q1 2017 was revised down from 0.3% to 0.2% and further detail was released confirming that the slowdown was focused on consumer spending and related industry sectors such as retailing, hotels and restaurants, transport and communications. |
| But he does spot some reasons for optimism- including the rise in business investment, and higher government spending too. | But he does spot some reasons for optimism- including the rise in business investment, and higher government spending too. |
| 10.33am BST | 10.33am BST |
| 10:33 | 10:33 |
| CHARTS: How Britain's economy is weak on a per-capita basis | CHARTS: How Britain's economy is weak on a per-capita basis |
| Matt Whittaker of the Resolution Foundation confirms that Britain’s growth rate was ZERO in the last quarter, once you adjust for population increases. | Matt Whittaker of the Resolution Foundation confirms that Britain’s growth rate was ZERO in the last quarter, once you adjust for population increases. |
| He also shows how Britain’s growth since the financial crisis is rather less impressive on a per-capita basis (ie, growth per person). | He also shows how Britain’s growth since the financial crisis is rather less impressive on a per-capita basis (ie, growth per person). |
| (2/5) Accounting for population growth, quarter-on-quarter growth in GDP per person drops to zero pic.twitter.com/Qujc124miS | (2/5) Accounting for population growth, quarter-on-quarter growth in GDP per person drops to zero pic.twitter.com/Qujc124miS |
| (4/5)Looking internationally, UK has performed relatively well in terms of overall GDP: third behind Canada & US in G7 since 2008 pic.twitter.com/KvdQFCsLTK | (4/5)Looking internationally, UK has performed relatively well in terms of overall GDP: third behind Canada & US in G7 since 2008 pic.twitter.com/KvdQFCsLTK |
| (5/5)But adjusting for population growth in the same period drops the UK down the table - falling below Germany & Japan too pic.twitter.com/v47Y8qLSoq | (5/5)But adjusting for population growth in the same period drops the UK down the table - falling below Germany & Japan too pic.twitter.com/v47Y8qLSoq |
| Updated | Updated |
| at 10.35am BST | at 10.35am BST |
| 10.26am BST | 10.26am BST |
| 10:26 | 10:26 |
| Today’s growth report also shows that public sector workers are suffering the biggest impact from rising inflation (which hit 2.7% in April), as their wages are lagging behind the private sector. | Today’s growth report also shows that public sector workers are suffering the biggest impact from rising inflation (which hit 2.7% in April), as their wages are lagging behind the private sector. |
| The ONS says: | The ONS says: |
| Compensation of employees, which includes wages and salaries and employers’ social contributions, showed positive growth of 0.6% seasonally adjusted in Quarter 1 2017. | Compensation of employees, which includes wages and salaries and employers’ social contributions, showed positive growth of 0.6% seasonally adjusted in Quarter 1 2017. |
| Non-seasonally adjusted, growth was chiefly driven by strong positive growth in private sector wages and salaries, in turn driven by bonus payments typically made at Quarter 1 and a smaller fall in growth in private sector jobs than seen in previous Quarter 1s’. This was partially offset by a small fall in public sector wages and salaries. | Non-seasonally adjusted, growth was chiefly driven by strong positive growth in private sector wages and salaries, in turn driven by bonus payments typically made at Quarter 1 and a smaller fall in growth in private sector jobs than seen in previous Quarter 1s’. This was partially offset by a small fall in public sector wages and salaries. |
| 10.19am BST | 10.19am BST |
| 10:19 | 10:19 |
| Here’s a handy chart showing how net trade (red) had a negative impact on growth in January-to-March: | Here’s a handy chart showing how net trade (red) had a negative impact on growth in January-to-March: |
| Very poor #UK Q1 #GDP: net #exports dire despite £ fall, #consumption slows, #investment rise reflects valuables only #stocks prevent fall! pic.twitter.com/JaN9iiJSWw | Very poor #UK Q1 #GDP: net #exports dire despite £ fall, #consumption slows, #investment rise reflects valuables only #stocks prevent fall! pic.twitter.com/JaN9iiJSWw |
| 10.06am BST | 10.06am BST |
| 10:06 | 10:06 |
| UK growth weakens: What the experts say | UK growth weakens: What the experts say |
| Britain’s economy is suffering from the squeeze on real wages, as inflation overtakes earnings, says Ms Lee Hopley, chief economist at EEF, the manufacturers’ organisation. | Britain’s economy is suffering from the squeeze on real wages, as inflation overtakes earnings, says Ms Lee Hopley, chief economist at EEF, the manufacturers’ organisation. |
| She explains: | She explains: |
| “While the downward revision may have been unexpected, the reasons behind the weakness surely aren’t. Sluggish household spending growth, a consequence of the squeeze on real incomes starting to kick in, and some pull back on export growth after an impressive end to last year. | “While the downward revision may have been unexpected, the reasons behind the weakness surely aren’t. Sluggish household spending growth, a consequence of the squeeze on real incomes starting to kick in, and some pull back on export growth after an impressive end to last year. |
| “We expect the consumer weakness to persist as wage growth falls further behind rising prices, but there should be some turnaround on the trade front, driven by a brighter outlook in the rest of the world. For those on the hunt for some good news in the data it was to be found in the investment numbers. Business investment picked up at the start of this year and some big revisions to investment at the end of last year mean the investment picture isn’t as dire as first thought. Still, we’ll need to see this rebound continue and strengthen if for longer-term productivity prospects to improve.” | “We expect the consumer weakness to persist as wage growth falls further behind rising prices, but there should be some turnaround on the trade front, driven by a brighter outlook in the rest of the world. For those on the hunt for some good news in the data it was to be found in the investment numbers. Business investment picked up at the start of this year and some big revisions to investment at the end of last year mean the investment picture isn’t as dire as first thought. Still, we’ll need to see this rebound continue and strengthen if for longer-term productivity prospects to improve.” |
| Ian Stewart, chief economist at Deloitte, also blames the rising cost of living: | Ian Stewart, chief economist at Deloitte, also blames the rising cost of living: |
| “Just as expected higher inflation is squeezing incomes and spending. | “Just as expected higher inflation is squeezing incomes and spending. |
| High inflation is hitting consumers, but a weak pound and a recovering global economy are helping businesses. UK growth is likely to tilt away from the consumer towards exports, manufacturing and investment this year. This should keep the UK economy growing at a similar rate to last year.” | High inflation is hitting consumers, but a weak pound and a recovering global economy are helping businesses. UK growth is likely to tilt away from the consumer towards exports, manufacturing and investment this year. This should keep the UK economy growing at a similar rate to last year.” |
| Only one City economist expected Britain’s growth rate to be revised down to 0.2% today, says Reuters’ Ross Finlay. | Only one City economist expected Britain’s growth rate to be revised down to 0.2% today, says Reuters’ Ross Finlay. |
| #Brexit effect? UK Q1 GDP revised down to just 0.2% qoq. Only 1 of 42 economists in @ReutersPolls (median 0.3%) expected this. 1 said 0.4% pic.twitter.com/ys6179I0Cr | #Brexit effect? UK Q1 GDP revised down to just 0.2% qoq. Only 1 of 42 economists in @ReutersPolls (median 0.3%) expected this. 1 said 0.4% pic.twitter.com/ys6179I0Cr |
| Suren Thiru, head of economics at the British Chamber of Commerce, is disappointed that Britain’s net trade was so weak last quarter, despite the weak pound: | Suren Thiru, head of economics at the British Chamber of Commerce, is disappointed that Britain’s net trade was so weak last quarter, despite the weak pound: |
| Latest #ONS data confirms that trade was a major drag on UK GDP growth in Q1, little sterling impact here! pic.twitter.com/Enq48Urvy2 | Latest #ONS data confirms that trade was a major drag on UK GDP growth in Q1, little sterling impact here! pic.twitter.com/Enq48Urvy2 |
| The FT’s Sarah O’Connor flags up that Britain’s productivity crisis is even worse than we thought (figures last week showed a fall of 0.5%, but today’s figures suggest an even darker picture). | The FT’s Sarah O’Connor flags up that Britain’s productivity crisis is even worse than we thought (figures last week showed a fall of 0.5%, but today’s figures suggest an even darker picture). |
| This suggests productivity was even more dire in Q1 than we thought. We created a lot of jobs to produce that meagre 0.2% of extra GDP https://t.co/hOSQ0VoXdQ | This suggests productivity was even more dire in Q1 than we thought. We created a lot of jobs to produce that meagre 0.2% of extra GDP https://t.co/hOSQ0VoXdQ |
| But economist Rupert Seggins is encouraged that business investment rose (by 1.2%), despite the Brexit uncertainty. | But economist Rupert Seggins is encouraged that business investment rose (by 1.2%), despite the Brexit uncertainty. |
| UK economy still awaiting the uncertainty-driven investment apocalypse we were promised last year… pic.twitter.com/LgtbBlQTaA | UK economy still awaiting the uncertainty-driven investment apocalypse we were promised last year… pic.twitter.com/LgtbBlQTaA |
| Updated | Updated |
| at 10.16am BST | at 10.16am BST |
| 9.54am BST | 9.54am BST |
| 09:54 | 09:54 |
| UK economy stagnant on per-head basis | UK economy stagnant on per-head basis |
| Britain’s economy didn’t grow at all in the last quarter, if you account for the increase in population. | Britain’s economy didn’t grow at all in the last quarter, if you account for the increase in population. |
| Today’s new figures show that GDP on a per-capita basis was flat in Q1 2017, compared to the final three months of 2016. | Today’s new figures show that GDP on a per-capita basis was flat in Q1 2017, compared to the final three months of 2016. |
| So while the economy got a bit bigger, individuals didn’t actually feel the benefit. | So while the economy got a bit bigger, individuals didn’t actually feel the benefit. |
| 9.51am BST | 9.51am BST |
| 09:51 | 09:51 |
| The bad news is that net trade took a big bite out of Britain’s growth rate. | The bad news is that net trade took a big bite out of Britain’s growth rate. |
| Net trade wiped 1.4 percentage points off the growth rate, dashing hopes that the weaker pound would be a massive boost to exporters. | Net trade wiped 1.4 percentage points off the growth rate, dashing hopes that the weaker pound would be a massive boost to exporters. |
| The ONS says. | The ONS says. |
| Within net trade, there has been a rise in total imports, which have contributed negatively to UK GDP, with a notable contribution from transport equipment, machinery and chemicals. | Within net trade, there has been a rise in total imports, which have contributed negatively to UK GDP, with a notable contribution from transport equipment, machinery and chemicals. |
| And adjusting for inflation, household spending in the first quarter of 2017 rose by just 0.3%. That’s the smallest amount since the final three months of 2014 -- underlining how inflation is hurting. | And adjusting for inflation, household spending in the first quarter of 2017 rose by just 0.3%. That’s the smallest amount since the final three months of 2014 -- underlining how inflation is hurting. |
| 9.47am BST | 9.47am BST |
| 09:47 | 09:47 |
| The good news is that businesses invested more in new plants and machinery at the start of this year. | The good news is that businesses invested more in new plants and machinery at the start of this year. |
| Gross fixed capital formation (GFCF) increased by 1.2% compared with Quarter 4 2016, today’s GDP report shows. | Gross fixed capital formation (GFCF) increased by 1.2% compared with Quarter 4 2016, today’s GDP report shows. |
| 9.42am BST | 9.42am BST |
| 09:42 | 09:42 |
| Why UK growth was revised down | Why UK growth was revised down |
| Today’s growth figures confirm that UK households were hit by the impact of higher inflation, due to the weak pound. | Today’s growth figures confirm that UK households were hit by the impact of higher inflation, due to the weak pound. |
| The Office for National Statistics explains: | The Office for National Statistics explains: |
| UK GDP growth slowed to 0.2% in Quarter 1 2017 as consumer facing industries such as retail and accommodation fell and household spending slowed. This was partly due to rising prices. | UK GDP growth slowed to 0.2% in Quarter 1 2017 as consumer facing industries such as retail and accommodation fell and household spending slowed. This was partly due to rising prices. |
| Construction and manufacturing also showed little growth, while business services & finance continued to grow strongly. | Construction and manufacturing also showed little growth, while business services & finance continued to grow strongly. |
| 9.35am BST | 9.35am BST |
| 09:35 | 09:35 |
| UK growth revised down | UK growth revised down |
| NEWSFLASH: Britain’s economic growth in the first quarter of this year was even weake than we thought. | NEWSFLASH: Britain’s economic growth in the first quarter of this year was even weake than we thought. |
| Growth has been revised down to just 0.2% for January to March, down from the first estimate of 0.3%. | Growth has been revised down to just 0.2% for January to March, down from the first estimate of 0.3%. |
| That’s the weakest growth since the first three month of 2016, and shows that the economy is less robust then we thought. | That’s the weakest growth since the first three month of 2016, and shows that the economy is less robust then we thought. |
| The ONS now believes that the UK service sector grew by just 0.2%, not the 0.3% first expected. | The ONS now believes that the UK service sector grew by just 0.2%, not the 0.3% first expected. |
| Industrial output has been revised down too, from +0.3% to +0.1%. | Industrial output has been revised down too, from +0.3% to +0.1%. |
| More details and reaction to follow! | More details and reaction to follow! |
| 9.30am BST | 9.30am BST |
| 09:30 | 09:30 |
| As expected, Iraq is also backing a nine-month extension: | As expected, Iraq is also backing a nine-month extension: |
| Iraqi minister says 9 month extension of cuts would be "best deal" which #OPEC will monitor pic.twitter.com/y13PO0xbIX | Iraqi minister says 9 month extension of cuts would be "best deal" which #OPEC will monitor pic.twitter.com/y13PO0xbIX |
| 9.28am BST | 9.28am BST |
| 09:28 | 09:28 |
| Saudi: 9-month deal is 'highly likely' | Saudi: 9-month deal is 'highly likely' |
| Saudi Arabia’s oil minister says that a nine-month cuts extension is ‘highly likely’ to be agreed today. | Saudi Arabia’s oil minister says that a nine-month cuts extension is ‘highly likely’ to be agreed today. |
| Khalid al-Falih adds that he doesn’t expect any deeper cuts, though. That implies that the current agreement to shave 1.8m barrels-per-day off global outlook would be extended | Khalid al-Falih adds that he doesn’t expect any deeper cuts, though. That implies that the current agreement to shave 1.8m barrels-per-day off global outlook would be extended |
| Saudi's Al-Falih: `Highly likely' we'll roll over same cuts for 9 months #OOTT #OPEC #Oil | Saudi's Al-Falih: `Highly likely' we'll roll over same cuts for 9 months #OOTT #OPEC #Oil |
| Saudi Energy Minister says #OPEC highly likely to roll over on same terms for nine months | Saudi Energy Minister says #OPEC highly likely to roll over on same terms for nine months |
| Saudi min says shale will contribute to demand growth but won't do it on its own #OOTT #OPEC | Saudi min says shale will contribute to demand growth but won't do it on its own #OOTT #OPEC |
| Updated | Updated |
| at 9.29am BST | at 9.29am BST |
| 9.24am BST | 9.24am BST |
| 09:24 | 09:24 |
| Oil ministers speak as Opec meeting begins | Oil ministers speak as Opec meeting begins |
| And we’re off! A flurry of comments are hitting the wires as Opec ministers speak to reports. | And we’re off! A flurry of comments are hitting the wires as Opec ministers speak to reports. |
| Kuwait’s energy minister says he expects a nine-month extensions to the current output cut deal, but doesn’t expect any deeper cuts. | Kuwait’s energy minister says he expects a nine-month extensions to the current output cut deal, but doesn’t expect any deeper cuts. |
| *Kuwait says no-one raised question of deeper cuts; deeper cuts unnecessary #OPEC #OOTT #Oil | *Kuwait says no-one raised question of deeper cuts; deeper cuts unnecessary #OPEC #OOTT #Oil |
| 9.12am BST | 9.12am BST |
| 09:12 | 09:12 |
| Here’s a snap from inside the Opec meeting, via Algerian energy minister Noureddine Bouterfa. | Here’s a snap from inside the Opec meeting, via Algerian energy minister Noureddine Bouterfa. |
| Mr Boutarfa attends the 172nd Meeting of the Opec Conferencepic.twitter.com/UnLIZFROrz https://t.co/ITZS9EZ1rh | Mr Boutarfa attends the 172nd Meeting of the Opec Conferencepic.twitter.com/UnLIZFROrz https://t.co/ITZS9EZ1rh |