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You can find the current article at its original source at https://www.theguardian.com/business/live/2017/may/25/oil-price-as-opec-ministers-meeting-output-deal-business-live
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| UK lags behind Europe as growth slows; Opec agrees supply cuts deal - business live | UK lags behind Europe as growth slows; Opec agrees supply cuts deal - business live |
| (35 minutes later) | |
| 3.17pm BST | |
| 15:17 | |
| Another day, another record high on Wall Street | |
| Over in New York, the S&P 500 has hit a fresh record high in early trading. | |
| The technology-focused Nasdaq is also hitting all-time record levels | |
| Traders aren’t worried by the prospect that US interest rates will rise next month. | |
| Chris Beauchamp of IG says: | |
| Traders arrived at their desks this morning having seen the Fed minutes warn of overvaluations in asset prices, and hint at further policy tightening later in the year, and yet were confronted with new record highs in the S&P 500 and the MSCI world index, while the US dollar is under pressure again. What an odd world we live in. | |
| Fresh all-time highs for the S&P500 but Dow still not quite there yet - around 80 points to go. pic.twitter.com/POnJykV3Z1 | |
| 3.03pm BST | 3.03pm BST |
| 15:03 | 15:03 |
| Reuters are also reporting that Opec has agreed to curb supply levels for another months: | Reuters are also reporting that Opec has agreed to curb supply levels for another months: |
| OPEC decided on Thursday to extend cuts in oil output by nine months to March 2018, OPEC delegates said, as the producer group battles a global glut of crude after seeing prices halve and revenues drop sharply in the past three years. | OPEC decided on Thursday to extend cuts in oil output by nine months to March 2018, OPEC delegates said, as the producer group battles a global glut of crude after seeing prices halve and revenues drop sharply in the past three years. |
| The cuts are likely to be shared again by a dozen non-members led by top oil producer Russia, which reduced output in tandem with the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries from January. | The cuts are likely to be shared again by a dozen non-members led by top oil producer Russia, which reduced output in tandem with the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries from January. |
| OPEC’s cuts have helped to push oil back above $50 a barrel this year, giving a fiscal boost to producers, many of which rely heavily on energy revenues and have had to burn through foreign-currency reserves to plug holes in their budgets. | OPEC’s cuts have helped to push oil back above $50 a barrel this year, giving a fiscal boost to producers, many of which rely heavily on energy revenues and have had to burn through foreign-currency reserves to plug holes in their budgets. |
| OPEC extends oil output cut by nine months to fight glut https://t.co/sio1ohJXRT pic.twitter.com/8WxTsb4aut | OPEC extends oil output cut by nine months to fight glut https://t.co/sio1ohJXRT pic.twitter.com/8WxTsb4aut |
| 2.34pm BST | 2.34pm BST |
| 14:34 | 14:34 |
| Newsflash from Vienna: The Opec meeting has finished. | Newsflash from Vienna: The Opec meeting has finished. |
| The cartel are now being joined by non-Opec countries, to discuss whether they would also support today’s rumoured deal to cut supplies for another nine months. | The cartel are now being joined by non-Opec countries, to discuss whether they would also support today’s rumoured deal to cut supplies for another nine months. |
| #OPEC meeting has finished - OPEC spokesperson | #OPEC meeting has finished - OPEC spokesperson |
| The first meeting is over; now time for non-opec to join #OOTT #OPEC | The first meeting is over; now time for non-opec to join #OOTT #OPEC |
| Updated | Updated |
| at 2.49pm BST | at 2.49pm BST |
| 2.28pm BST | 2.28pm BST |
| 14:28 | 14:28 |
| Dutch bank ING don’t think Opec’s supply cuts will work, as America’s shale industry (which won’t be part of the deal) can boost its own production levels. | Dutch bank ING don’t think Opec’s supply cuts will work, as America’s shale industry (which won’t be part of the deal) can boost its own production levels. |
| The #OPEC production cut extension is half-baked and sounds like a stuck record. Safe to say ING's Hamza Khan is not impressed.#oil pic.twitter.com/Z9sYETOqYd | The #OPEC production cut extension is half-baked and sounds like a stuck record. Safe to say ING's Hamza Khan is not impressed.#oil pic.twitter.com/Z9sYETOqYd |
| 2.25pm BST | 2.25pm BST |
| 14:25 | 14:25 |
| The latest US trade data is a little disappointing. | The latest US trade data is a little disappointing. |
| America’s trade deficit has widened, to $67.5bn in April from $65.0bn. That’s because exports shrank by 0.9%, with US firms selling fewer cars and consumer goods overseas. Imports rose by 0.7%. | America’s trade deficit has widened, to $67.5bn in April from $65.0bn. That’s because exports shrank by 0.9%, with US firms selling fewer cars and consumer goods overseas. Imports rose by 0.7%. |
| That suggests that America’s economy may not be rebounding as strongly as hoped from its weak first quarter. | That suggests that America’s economy may not be rebounding as strongly as hoped from its weak first quarter. |
| But...the latest jobs data is more encouraging. | But...the latest jobs data is more encouraging. |
| The number of Americans filing new claims for unemployment benefit rose by 1,000 last week, to 234,000. That’s lower than the 237,000 which Wall Street had expected, and close to its lowest levels in decades. | The number of Americans filing new claims for unemployment benefit rose by 1,000 last week, to 234,000. That’s lower than the 237,000 which Wall Street had expected, and close to its lowest levels in decades. |
| 1.47pm BST | 1.47pm BST |
| 13:47 | 13:47 |
| Oil price falls as Opec agrees deal | Oil price falls as Opec agrees deal |
| Back over in Vienna, Opec ministers have been hammering out an agreement to extend their existing production cuts. | Back over in Vienna, Opec ministers have been hammering out an agreement to extend their existing production cuts. |
| There’s nothing official yet, but the word on the ground is that the cartel will keep its current supply cuts for another nine months, through to March 2018. | There’s nothing official yet, but the word on the ground is that the cartel will keep its current supply cuts for another nine months, through to March 2018. |
| That’s what investors had largely expected.... | That’s what investors had largely expected.... |
| ...so the markets have shown their contrary nature, by sending the oil price down a bit. | ...so the markets have shown their contrary nature, by sending the oil price down a bit. |
| Not everyone is impressed by OPEC's decision to extend cuts. The price of oil has fallen https://t.co/o6NVtlOHp7 pic.twitter.com/zFDzttVGiy | Not everyone is impressed by OPEC's decision to extend cuts. The price of oil has fallen https://t.co/o6NVtlOHp7 pic.twitter.com/zFDzttVGiy |
| Brent crude is now down 1% at $53.43 per barrel, a whole dollar per barrel less than this morning. | Brent crude is now down 1% at $53.43 per barrel, a whole dollar per barrel less than this morning. |
| That’s partly due to our old friend ‘buy the news, sell the rumour’. | That’s partly due to our old friend ‘buy the news, sell the rumour’. |
| But there’s also some disappointment that Opec didn’t agree deeper cuts. Instead, they’re sticking to the 1.8m barrel a day deal first agreed in late November extended to March 2018. | But there’s also some disappointment that Opec didn’t agree deeper cuts. Instead, they’re sticking to the 1.8m barrel a day deal first agreed in late November extended to March 2018. |
| Why the #oil sell-off?"Disappointment #OPEC hasn't done more to balance the market," says Olivier Jakob @Petromatrix.#OOTT #shale #Brent pic.twitter.com/Q7D0M3qpiw | Why the #oil sell-off?"Disappointment #OPEC hasn't done more to balance the market," says Olivier Jakob @Petromatrix.#OOTT #shale #Brent pic.twitter.com/Q7D0M3qpiw |
| 1.10pm BST | 1.10pm BST |
| 13:10 | 13:10 |
| George Buckley, UK economist at Nomura, is concerned that Britain’s growth rate is now lagging behind European rivals. | George Buckley, UK economist at Nomura, is concerned that Britain’s growth rate is now lagging behind European rivals. |
| He writes: | He writes: |
| This is the first time in a year that UK growth failed to outpace that of the euro area (on average over the past 3-4 years the UK has grown a couple of tenths per quarter more strongly than the euro area). | This is the first time in a year that UK growth failed to outpace that of the euro area (on average over the past 3-4 years the UK has grown a couple of tenths per quarter more strongly than the euro area). |
| While UK real GDP is broadly the same as that of Germany relative to where it was at the start of 2008, Germany has produced its 8.5% increase in aggregate output over that period with no change in its population, compared a 6% rise in UK headcount (though the UK has experienced a more sizable rise in its dependency ratio). On a per capita basis, UK GDP did not expand at all in the first quarter of this year (in separate figures also published today official net migration fell to its lowest in three years – 248k in 2016). | While UK real GDP is broadly the same as that of Germany relative to where it was at the start of 2008, Germany has produced its 8.5% increase in aggregate output over that period with no change in its population, compared a 6% rise in UK headcount (though the UK has experienced a more sizable rise in its dependency ratio). On a per capita basis, UK GDP did not expand at all in the first quarter of this year (in separate figures also published today official net migration fell to its lowest in three years – 248k in 2016). |
| 12.47pm BST | 12.47pm BST |
| 12:47 | 12:47 |
| Julia Kollewe | Julia Kollewe |
| Housebuilding was a bright spot amidst the gloom spread by the unexpected downward revision to UK GDP today. | Housebuilding was a bright spot amidst the gloom spread by the unexpected downward revision to UK GDP today. |
| The Department for Communities and Local Government said 43,170 new houses were started in England between January and March, up 3% on the previous quarter and up 21% on a year earlier. The number of completed houses rose to 39,520, 9% higher than the previous quarter and 21% higher than a year ago. | The Department for Communities and Local Government said 43,170 new houses were started in England between January and March, up 3% on the previous quarter and up 21% on a year earlier. The number of completed houses rose to 39,520, 9% higher than the previous quarter and 21% higher than a year ago. |
| Housing starts totalled 162,880 in the year to March, up 15% on the previous year, while completions rose 6% to 147,960. | Housing starts totalled 162,880 in the year to March, up 15% on the previous year, while completions rose 6% to 147,960. |
| Andy Frankish of Mortgage Advice Bureau says more is needed: | Andy Frankish of Mortgage Advice Bureau says more is needed: |
| “Yes, the latest figures do indicate a marginal increase and we can see the signs of recovery starting in 2013, demonstrating the impact of the introduction of Help To Buy, which could suggest an element of cautious optimism that the industry has perhaps ‘turned the corner’ following the trough of 2009. | “Yes, the latest figures do indicate a marginal increase and we can see the signs of recovery starting in 2013, demonstrating the impact of the introduction of Help To Buy, which could suggest an element of cautious optimism that the industry has perhaps ‘turned the corner’ following the trough of 2009. |
| But if we are to reach the 200,000+ new build homes needed each year in England, there is still more momentum required.” | But if we are to reach the 200,000+ new build homes needed each year in England, there is still more momentum required.” |
| 12.28pm BST | 12.28pm BST |
| 12:28 | 12:28 |
| Britain’s weak growth means there’s even less chance of UK interest rates rising soon, despite inflation surging over the Bank of England’s 2% target. | Britain’s weak growth means there’s even less chance of UK interest rates rising soon, despite inflation surging over the Bank of England’s 2% target. |
| Royal Bank of Canada’s Sam Hill reckons borrowing costs will remain at record lows until early next year. | Royal Bank of Canada’s Sam Hill reckons borrowing costs will remain at record lows until early next year. |
| The Bank of England’s ‘backcast’ has 0.4% q/q in for Q1, so this revised outturn of 0.2% q/q is marginal downside news for policymakers. In our view, this GDP report reinforces the existing case for not responding to above-target inflation. | The Bank of England’s ‘backcast’ has 0.4% q/q in for Q1, so this revised outturn of 0.2% q/q is marginal downside news for policymakers. In our view, this GDP report reinforces the existing case for not responding to above-target inflation. |
| Indeed, we continue to see the risk that the slowdown in activity becomes more entrenched and ultimately results in monetary policy being loosened in Q1 2018. | Indeed, we continue to see the risk that the slowdown in activity becomes more entrenched and ultimately results in monetary policy being loosened in Q1 2018. |
| 11.46am BST | 11.46am BST |
| 11:46 | 11:46 |
| The next government needs to boost investment and drive up wages, says TUC General Secretary Frances O’Grady. | The next government needs to boost investment and drive up wages, says TUC General Secretary Frances O’Grady. |
| Here’s her take on the slowdown in UK growth in the last quarter: | Here’s her take on the slowdown in UK growth in the last quarter: |
| “This is a very worrying sign of the squeeze that families are feeling. Prices are rising faster than earnings, and households are getting deeper into debt. | “This is a very worrying sign of the squeeze that families are feeling. Prices are rising faster than earnings, and households are getting deeper into debt. |
| “The next government will inherit an economy that needs serious attention. An urgent priority must be to reverse the current fall in living standards. The minimum wage must go up faster, and the pay restrictions on public servants like nurses, firefighters and midwives must be ended. | “The next government will inherit an economy that needs serious attention. An urgent priority must be to reverse the current fall in living standards. The minimum wage must go up faster, and the pay restrictions on public servants like nurses, firefighters and midwives must be ended. |
| “It is also vital for Britain to increase investment in communities where good jobs are in short supply. More investment is needed in skills, transport links, broadband, decent homes and high quality public services.” | “It is also vital for Britain to increase investment in communities where good jobs are in short supply. More investment is needed in skills, transport links, broadband, decent homes and high quality public services.” |
| The TUC has published analysis this morning (Thursday) showing that unsecured debt per UK household will reach a record high this year of £13,900. This exceeds the pre-crisis peak of £13,300 in 2007. | The TUC has published analysis this morning (Thursday) showing that unsecured debt per UK household will reach a record high this year of £13,900. This exceeds the pre-crisis peak of £13,300 in 2007. |
| 11.13am BST | 11.13am BST |
| 11:13 | 11:13 |
| Uncertainty over Britain’s looming exit from the European Union may have hit the economy, says ING’s James Knightley: | Uncertainty over Britain’s looming exit from the European Union may have hit the economy, says ING’s James Knightley: |
| We weren't expecting this: UK GDP growth revised lower (0.2% in Q117 v est 0.3%). But mixed messages - could be down to #Brexit uncertainty. pic.twitter.com/6HwDkzR29y | We weren't expecting this: UK GDP growth revised lower (0.2% in Q117 v est 0.3%). But mixed messages - could be down to #Brexit uncertainty. pic.twitter.com/6HwDkzR29y |
| 10.55am BST | 10.55am BST |
| 10:55 | 10:55 |
| UK lagging behind Europe | UK lagging behind Europe |
| Today’s growth downgrade means that Britain was one of the worst-performing advanced economies in the first three months of this year. | Today’s growth downgrade means that Britain was one of the worst-performing advanced economies in the first three months of this year. |
| Only Italy and America did as badly as the UK; they also grew by around 0.2% in Q1 2017. | Only Italy and America did as badly as the UK; they also grew by around 0.2% in Q1 2017. |
| France expanded by 0.3%, Japan managed 0.5%, while Germany posted healthy growth of 0.6% and Spain’s GDP surged by 0.8%. | France expanded by 0.3%, Japan managed 0.5%, while Germany posted healthy growth of 0.6% and Spain’s GDP surged by 0.8%. |
| The Eurozone and the EU both grew by 0.5%. | The Eurozone and the EU both grew by 0.5%. |
| Updated | Updated |
| at 10.56am BST | at 10.56am BST |
| 10.46am BST | 10.46am BST |
| 10:46 | 10:46 |
| Sky News’s Ed Conway has dug into today’s GDP data, and discovered that things are even worse than we thought. | Sky News’s Ed Conway has dug into today’s GDP data, and discovered that things are even worse than we thought. |
| The UK actually grew by just 0.18% during Q1 (which was rounded up to 0.2%), which is the worst performance in over four years. | The UK actually grew by just 0.18% during Q1 (which was rounded up to 0.2%), which is the worst performance in over four years. |
| Actually, if you go back two decimal places, Q1 2017 GDP (0.18%) was weaker than Q1 2016 (0.19%). In fact it was the weakest since Q4 2012 pic.twitter.com/SQHATRE7cz | Actually, if you go back two decimal places, Q1 2017 GDP (0.18%) was weaker than Q1 2016 (0.19%). In fact it was the weakest since Q4 2012 pic.twitter.com/SQHATRE7cz |
| 10.44am BST | 10.44am BST |
| 10:44 | 10:44 |
| John Hawksworth, chief economist at PwC, is concerned by the sharp slowdown in UK growth. | John Hawksworth, chief economist at PwC, is concerned by the sharp slowdown in UK growth. |
| “Today’s GDP data indicate that the economy slowed even more than previously estimated in the first quarter of 2017, as consumer spending power was squeezed by rising prices. | “Today’s GDP data indicate that the economy slowed even more than previously estimated in the first quarter of 2017, as consumer spending power was squeezed by rising prices. |
| Excluding population growth, real GDP per head - the broadest measure of living standards in the economy - flatlined in the first quarter. | Excluding population growth, real GDP per head - the broadest measure of living standards in the economy - flatlined in the first quarter. |
| “Estimated GDP growth in Q1 2017 was revised down from 0.3% to 0.2% and further detail was released confirming that the slowdown was focused on consumer spending and related industry sectors such as retailing, hotels and restaurants, transport and communications. | “Estimated GDP growth in Q1 2017 was revised down from 0.3% to 0.2% and further detail was released confirming that the slowdown was focused on consumer spending and related industry sectors such as retailing, hotels and restaurants, transport and communications. |
| But he does spot some reasons for optimism- including the rise in business investment, and higher government spending too. | But he does spot some reasons for optimism- including the rise in business investment, and higher government spending too. |
| 10.33am BST | 10.33am BST |
| 10:33 | 10:33 |
| CHARTS: How Britain's economy is weak on a per-capita basis | CHARTS: How Britain's economy is weak on a per-capita basis |
| Matt Whittaker of the Resolution Foundation confirms that Britain’s growth rate was ZERO in the last quarter, once you adjust for population increases. | Matt Whittaker of the Resolution Foundation confirms that Britain’s growth rate was ZERO in the last quarter, once you adjust for population increases. |
| He also shows how Britain’s growth since the financial crisis is rather less impressive on a per-capita basis (ie, growth per person). | He also shows how Britain’s growth since the financial crisis is rather less impressive on a per-capita basis (ie, growth per person). |
| (2/5) Accounting for population growth, quarter-on-quarter growth in GDP per person drops to zero pic.twitter.com/Qujc124miS | (2/5) Accounting for population growth, quarter-on-quarter growth in GDP per person drops to zero pic.twitter.com/Qujc124miS |
| (4/5)Looking internationally, UK has performed relatively well in terms of overall GDP: third behind Canada & US in G7 since 2008 pic.twitter.com/KvdQFCsLTK | (4/5)Looking internationally, UK has performed relatively well in terms of overall GDP: third behind Canada & US in G7 since 2008 pic.twitter.com/KvdQFCsLTK |
| (5/5)But adjusting for population growth in the same period drops the UK down the table - falling below Germany & Japan too pic.twitter.com/v47Y8qLSoq | (5/5)But adjusting for population growth in the same period drops the UK down the table - falling below Germany & Japan too pic.twitter.com/v47Y8qLSoq |
| Updated | Updated |
| at 10.35am BST | at 10.35am BST |
| 10.26am BST | 10.26am BST |
| 10:26 | 10:26 |
| Today’s growth report also shows that public sector workers are suffering the biggest impact from rising inflation (which hit 2.7% in April), as their wages are lagging behind the private sector. | Today’s growth report also shows that public sector workers are suffering the biggest impact from rising inflation (which hit 2.7% in April), as their wages are lagging behind the private sector. |
| The ONS says: | The ONS says: |
| Compensation of employees, which includes wages and salaries and employers’ social contributions, showed positive growth of 0.6% seasonally adjusted in Quarter 1 2017. | Compensation of employees, which includes wages and salaries and employers’ social contributions, showed positive growth of 0.6% seasonally adjusted in Quarter 1 2017. |
| Non-seasonally adjusted, growth was chiefly driven by strong positive growth in private sector wages and salaries, in turn driven by bonus payments typically made at Quarter 1 and a smaller fall in growth in private sector jobs than seen in previous Quarter 1s’. This was partially offset by a small fall in public sector wages and salaries. | Non-seasonally adjusted, growth was chiefly driven by strong positive growth in private sector wages and salaries, in turn driven by bonus payments typically made at Quarter 1 and a smaller fall in growth in private sector jobs than seen in previous Quarter 1s’. This was partially offset by a small fall in public sector wages and salaries. |
| 10.19am BST | 10.19am BST |
| 10:19 | 10:19 |
| Here’s a handy chart showing how net trade (red) had a negative impact on growth in January-to-March: | Here’s a handy chart showing how net trade (red) had a negative impact on growth in January-to-March: |
| Very poor #UK Q1 #GDP: net #exports dire despite £ fall, #consumption slows, #investment rise reflects valuables only #stocks prevent fall! pic.twitter.com/JaN9iiJSWw | Very poor #UK Q1 #GDP: net #exports dire despite £ fall, #consumption slows, #investment rise reflects valuables only #stocks prevent fall! pic.twitter.com/JaN9iiJSWw |