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| UK growth unexpectedly revised down to just 0.2% - business live | |
| (35 minutes later) | |
| 9.51am BST | |
| 09:51 | |
| The bad news is that net trade took a big bite out of Britain’s growth rate. | |
| Net trade wiped 1.4 percentage points off the growth rate, dashing hopes that the weaker pound would be a massive boost to exporters. | |
| The ONS says. | |
| Within net trade, there has been a rise in total imports, which have contributed negatively to UK GDP, with a notable contribution from transport equipment, machinery and chemicals. | |
| And adjusting for inflation, household spending in the first quarter of 2017 rose by just 0.3%. That’s the smallest amount since the final three months of 2014 -- underlining how inflation is hurting. | |
| 9.47am BST | |
| 09:47 | |
| The good news is that businesses invested more in new plants and machinery at the start of this year. | |
| Gross fixed capital formation (GFCF) increased by 1.2% compared with Quarter 4 2016, today’s GDP report shows. | |
| 9.42am BST | |
| 09:42 | |
| Why UK growth was revised down | |
| Today’s growth figures confirm that UK households were hit by the impact of higher inflation, due to the weak pound. | |
| The Office for National Statistics explains: | |
| UK GDP growth slowed to 0.2% in Quarter 1 2017 as consumer facing industries such as retail and accommodation fell and household spending slowed. This was partly due to rising prices. | |
| Construction and manufacturing also showed little growth, while business services & finance continued to grow strongly. | |
| 9.35am BST | |
| 09:35 | |
| UK growth revised down | |
| NEWSFLASH: Britain’s economic growth in the first quarter of this year was even weake than we thought. | |
| Growth has been revised down to just 0.2% for January to March, down from the first estimate of 0.3%. | |
| That’s the weakest growth since the first three month of 2016, and shows that the economy is less robust then we thought. | |
| The ONS now believes that the UK service sector grew by just 0.2%, not the 0.3% first expected. | |
| Industrial output has been revised down too, from +0.3% to +0.1%. | |
| More details and reaction to follow! | |
| 9.30am BST | |
| 09:30 | |
| As expected, Iraq is also backing a nine-month extension: | |
| Iraqi minister says 9 month extension of cuts would be "best deal" which #OPEC will monitor pic.twitter.com/y13PO0xbIX | |
| 9.28am BST | |
| 09:28 | |
| Saudi: 9-month deal is 'highly likely' | |
| Saudi Arabia’s oil minister says that a nine-month cuts extension is ‘highly likely’ to be agreed today. | |
| Khalid al-Falih adds that he doesn’t expect any deeper cuts, though. That implies that the current agreement to shave 1.8m barrels-per-day off global outlook would be extended | |
| Saudi's Al-Falih: `Highly likely' we'll roll over same cuts for 9 months #OOTT #OPEC #Oil | |
| Saudi Energy Minister says #OPEC highly likely to roll over on same terms for nine months | |
| Saudi min says shale will contribute to demand growth but won't do it on its own #OOTT #OPEC | |
| Updated | |
| at 9.29am BST | |
| 9.24am BST | |
| 09:24 | |
| Oil ministers speak as Opec meeting begins | |
| And we’re off! A flurry of comments are hitting the wires as Opec ministers speak to reports. | |
| Kuwait’s energy minister says he expects a nine-month extensions to the current output cut deal, but doesn’t expect any deeper cuts. | |
| *Kuwait says no-one raised question of deeper cuts; deeper cuts unnecessary #OPEC #OOTT #Oil | |
| 9.12am BST | 9.12am BST |
| 09:12 | 09:12 |
| Here’s a snap from inside the Opec meeting, via Algerian energy minister Noureddine Bouterfa. | Here’s a snap from inside the Opec meeting, via Algerian energy minister Noureddine Bouterfa. |
| Mr Boutarfa attends the 172nd Meeting of the Opec Conferencepic.twitter.com/UnLIZFROrz https://t.co/ITZS9EZ1rh | Mr Boutarfa attends the 172nd Meeting of the Opec Conferencepic.twitter.com/UnLIZFROrz https://t.co/ITZS9EZ1rh |
| 9.11am BST | 9.11am BST |
| 09:11 | 09:11 |
| No pushing at the back, please. | No pushing at the back, please. |
| Getting ready for the Opec media...ahem... "gangbang" #OOTT pic.twitter.com/O4CF2kmdd9 | Getting ready for the Opec media...ahem... "gangbang" #OOTT pic.twitter.com/O4CF2kmdd9 |
| Still waiting #OPEC #OOTT pic.twitter.com/Ik2KC4rK6E | Still waiting #OPEC #OOTT pic.twitter.com/Ik2KC4rK6E |
| 9.05am BST | 9.05am BST |
| 09:05 | 09:05 |
| The journalists sent to Vienna to cover today’s meeting are getting hot under the collar, literally. | The journalists sent to Vienna to cover today’s meeting are getting hot under the collar, literally. |
| They’ve been queuing, more-or-less patiently, in a stairwell for around an hour - waiting to be allowed into the opening session. | They’ve been queuing, more-or-less patiently, in a stairwell for around an hour - waiting to be allowed into the opening session. |
| Current scene in stairwell outside #OPEC press centre - been here over an hour pic.twitter.com/zllPs3JAO2 | Current scene in stairwell outside #OPEC press centre - been here over an hour pic.twitter.com/zllPs3JAO2 |
| These Opec meetings can get quite frenzied, as reporters compete to hear from oil ministers. Last November’s gathering was particularly heated - several ornaments were broken amid media scrums, and one reporter briefly lost her shoe. | These Opec meetings can get quite frenzied, as reporters compete to hear from oil ministers. Last November’s gathering was particularly heated - several ornaments were broken amid media scrums, and one reporter briefly lost her shoe. |
| Updated | Updated |
| at 9.05am BST | at 9.05am BST |
| 8.54am BST | 8.54am BST |
| 08:54 | 08:54 |
| Some City analysts are sceptical about whether Opec can really influence the oil price, as many producers - such as America - aren’t part of the cartel. | Some City analysts are sceptical about whether Opec can really influence the oil price, as many producers - such as America - aren’t part of the cartel. |
| Marc Ostwald of ADM Investor Services says the markets “fully” expect a nine-month extension to the current deal. | Marc Ostwald of ADM Investor Services says the markets “fully” expect a nine-month extension to the current deal. |
| Many are wondering if the group has any rabbits to pull of its hat to mitigate the risk of a buy the rumour, sell the fact reaction. | Many are wondering if the group has any rabbits to pull of its hat to mitigate the risk of a buy the rumour, sell the fact reaction. |
| It is not actually certain that the extension will be 9 months rather than six, even if the noises have been in that direction, or if any other Non-OPEC countries do sign up, they are at best likely to be very marginal producers such as Tajikistan, and per se more an optical addition than ‘game changers’ | It is not actually certain that the extension will be 9 months rather than six, even if the noises have been in that direction, or if any other Non-OPEC countries do sign up, they are at best likely to be very marginal producers such as Tajikistan, and per se more an optical addition than ‘game changers’ |
| 8.37am BST | 8.37am BST |
| 08:37 | 08:37 |
| Oil ministers are arriving at the Opec HQ now. There’s a live webcast from the hotel here. | Oil ministers are arriving at the Opec HQ now. There’s a live webcast from the hotel here. |
| 8.07am BST | 8.07am BST |
| 08:07 | 08:07 |
| Three Opec delegates have told Reuters that a nine-month output extension is the “most likely scenario”. One says that a one-year extension (to June 2018) is an option. | Three Opec delegates have told Reuters that a nine-month output extension is the “most likely scenario”. One says that a one-year extension (to June 2018) is an option. |
| Reuters’ Amanda Cooper has the details: | Reuters’ Amanda Cooper has the details: |
| One #OPEC delegate says a 1-year extension to the oil supply deal is "still an option" #OOTT | One #OPEC delegate says a 1-year extension to the oil supply deal is "still an option" #OOTT |
| Updated | Updated |
| at 9.06am BST | at 9.06am BST |
| 8.06am BST | 8.06am BST |
| 08:06 | 08:06 |
| Here’s the full agenda of the Opec meeting (timings are in CEST, so knock off an hour for BST). | Here’s the full agenda of the Opec meeting (timings are in CEST, so knock off an hour for BST). |
| 8.00am BST | 8.00am BST |
| 08:00 | 08:00 |
| Some background. Last November, Opec and non-Opec members agreed to cut their combined output by around 1.8 million barrels per day through the first six months of this year. | Some background. Last November, Opec and non-Opec members agreed to cut their combined output by around 1.8 million barrels per day through the first six months of this year. |
| That deal did drive the oil price over $50 per barrel, but any hopes (or fears) that prices would push higher have been dashed (or allayed). | That deal did drive the oil price over $50 per barrel, but any hopes (or fears) that prices would push higher have been dashed (or allayed). |
| As this chart shows, the oil price actually dipped back in recent weeks, before rallying on hopes that the deal will be extended today. | As this chart shows, the oil price actually dipped back in recent weeks, before rallying on hopes that the deal will be extended today. |
| OPEC set to prolong cuts to help clear glut https://t.co/StVoACYbdo @JavierBlas2 #oil #OPEC pic.twitter.com/u2UrTxozoz | OPEC set to prolong cuts to help clear glut https://t.co/StVoACYbdo @JavierBlas2 #oil #OPEC pic.twitter.com/u2UrTxozoz |
| 7.49am BST | 7.49am BST |
| 07:49 | 07:49 |
| Queues are forming outside Opec’s headquarters in the Austrian capital, ahead of today’s meeting: | Queues are forming outside Opec’s headquarters in the Austrian capital, ahead of today’s meeting: |
| Good morning from the OPEC Secretariat, where the fun is about to begin #opec #oott #oil #saudi #iran #iraq #venezuela #russia #nigeria #uae pic.twitter.com/dMOhGXLQsE | Good morning from the OPEC Secretariat, where the fun is about to begin #opec #oott #oil #saudi #iran #iraq #venezuela #russia #nigeria #uae pic.twitter.com/dMOhGXLQsE |
| Outside #OPEC HQ #OOTT pic.twitter.com/SPH6YYuDfE | Outside #OPEC HQ #OOTT pic.twitter.com/SPH6YYuDfE |
| 7.46am BST | 7.46am BST |
| 07:46 | 07:46 |
| Oil price rallies as Opec meeting begins | Oil price rallies as Opec meeting begins |
| The oil price is jumping this morning, on predictions that Opec will extend its existing output cuts today. | The oil price is jumping this morning, on predictions that Opec will extend its existing output cuts today. |
| Brent crude has gained almost 1% to $54.45 per barrel, and New York crude is up 0.75% at $51.75 per barrel. | Brent crude has gained almost 1% to $54.45 per barrel, and New York crude is up 0.75% at $51.75 per barrel. |
| That underlines how the markets expect the oil cartel to agree to pump less oil at today’s meeting. | That underlines how the markets expect the oil cartel to agree to pump less oil at today’s meeting. |
| Nigeria’s oil minister has bolstered hopes of a nine-month extension -- and possibly even longer: | Nigeria’s oil minister has bolstered hopes of a nine-month extension -- and possibly even longer: |
| #Nigeria oil minister @IbeKachikwu says that #OPEC largely in agreement for 9-month cut extension (and an option for an extra 3 month) #OOTT | #Nigeria oil minister @IbeKachikwu says that #OPEC largely in agreement for 9-month cut extension (and an option for an extra 3 month) #OOTT |
| Barclays analysts have argued that a mere six-month extension would be a blunder, as it would expire at the end of this year - when oil demand is weak. | Barclays analysts have argued that a mere six-month extension would be a blunder, as it would expire at the end of this year - when oil demand is weak. |
| Extending the deal into 2018 would mean that Opec members would ramp up output when demand is strengthening. | Extending the deal into 2018 would mean that Opec members would ramp up output when demand is strengthening. |
| 7.35am BST | 7.35am BST |
| 07:35 | 07:35 |
| The agenda: Opec meeting and UK GDP report | The agenda: Opec meeting and UK GDP report |
| Good morning, and welcome to our rolling coverage of the world economy, the financial markets, the eurozone and business. | Good morning, and welcome to our rolling coverage of the world economy, the financial markets, the eurozone and business. |
| All eyes are on Vienna this morning as energy ministers from the Opec oil cartel meet. | All eyes are on Vienna this morning as energy ministers from the Opec oil cartel meet. |
| On the agenda: whether or not to extend the oil production cuts deal which was agreed six months ago. | On the agenda: whether or not to extend the oil production cuts deal which was agreed six months ago. |
| Oil analysts broadly expect an extension to be hammered out – as the alternative would spook the markets and send prices spiralling down. But the big issue is how long for. | Oil analysts broadly expect an extension to be hammered out – as the alternative would spook the markets and send prices spiralling down. But the big issue is how long for. |
| Saudi Arabia (Opec’s biggest member) is pushing for a nine-month extension, and Iraq backed this plan earlier this week. | Saudi Arabia (Opec’s biggest member) is pushing for a nine-month extension, and Iraq backed this plan earlier this week. |
| But there have been whispers that Opec might only extend oil output cuts by a mere six months, or could go the whole hog with a 12 month deal. So there’s all to play for in Vienna today. | But there have been whispers that Opec might only extend oil output cuts by a mere six months, or could go the whole hog with a 12 month deal. So there’s all to play for in Vienna today. |
| Kathleen Brooks of City Index predicts that the Saudi’s will get their way: | Kathleen Brooks of City Index predicts that the Saudi’s will get their way: |
| The oil cartel meets today, and the market is expecting it to extend the period of production cuts by an extra nine months, through to March 2018. This has been widely signalled after Russia (a non-Opec member) and Saudi Arabia said that they would support an extension of the cuts last week. | The oil cartel meets today, and the market is expecting it to extend the period of production cuts by an extra nine months, through to March 2018. This has been widely signalled after Russia (a non-Opec member) and Saudi Arabia said that they would support an extension of the cuts last week. |
| There is a very small chance that some of the smaller, struggling members of Opec, including Venezuela and Nigeria, may resist the prospect of further cuts, overall we think that Saudi Arabia will ultimately get what it wants from this meeting. | There is a very small chance that some of the smaller, struggling members of Opec, including Venezuela and Nigeria, may resist the prospect of further cuts, overall we think that Saudi Arabia will ultimately get what it wants from this meeting. |
| Mike van Dulken of Accendo Markets says Opec should be wary of disappointing the markets: | Mike van Dulken of Accendo Markets says Opec should be wary of disappointing the markets: |
| OPEC talked up 9m cuts so much, anything less = disappointment. I hope they've been watching earnings season. Underpromise, overdeliver | OPEC talked up 9m cuts so much, anything less = disappointment. I hope they've been watching earnings season. Underpromise, overdeliver |
| Also coming up today: | Also coming up today: |
| We’re about to get fresh information on how the British economy performed in the first three months of this year. | We’re about to get fresh information on how the British economy performed in the first three months of this year. |
| The second estimate of UK GDP will reveal how business investment, net trade, personal spending and government spending changed over the quarter. | The second estimate of UK GDP will reveal how business investment, net trade, personal spending and government spending changed over the quarter. |
| The City predict that consumer spending took a dive, as rising inflation hits shoppers. | The City predict that consumer spending took a dive, as rising inflation hits shoppers. |
| Royal Bank of Canada say: | Royal Bank of Canada say: |
| It is expected that a much more modest contribution from the consumer will be behind the lower growth figure, as real household disposable incomes have been hit by rising prices. | It is expected that a much more modest contribution from the consumer will be behind the lower growth figure, as real household disposable incomes have been hit by rising prices. |
| The Office for National Statistics is also expected to confirm that GDP only rose by a modest 0.3% in January-to-March, down from 0.7% in October-December. | The Office for National Statistics is also expected to confirm that GDP only rose by a modest 0.3% in January-to-March, down from 0.7% in October-December. |
| 9am BST: Opec opening session begins in Vienna | 9am BST: Opec opening session begins in Vienna |
| 9.30am BST: Second estimate of UK GDP released | 9.30am BST: Second estimate of UK GDP released |
| 1.30pm BST: US trade balance for April | 1.30pm BST: US trade balance for April |
| 1.30pm BST: US weekly jobless figures | 1.30pm BST: US weekly jobless figures |
| 4pm BST: Opec press conference | 4pm BST: Opec press conference |
| We’ll be tracking all the main events through the day... | We’ll be tracking all the main events through the day... |
| Updated | Updated |
| at 8.55am BST | at 8.55am BST |