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A Global Trump Movement? France Election Signals No A Global Trump Movement? France Election Signals No
(about 7 hours later)
WASHINGTON — To the extent that President Trump or his strategists saw his against-the-odds election last year as the leading edge of an international movement, the presidential vote in France over the weekend signaled that Europe was not ready to enlist. WASHINGTON — After his November election, President Trump and his strategists foresaw the beginning of a populist wave washing over the developed world. But instead of being joined by like-minded counterparts across the Atlantic, Mr. Trump finds himself facing a European leadership that has repudiated his fiery brand of politics.
Despite the rise of nationalist parties and Britain’s vote last year to leave the European Union, the victory of the centrist candidate Emmanuel Macron over the far-right insurgent Marine Le Pen represented the third time since Mr. Trump’s election that voters in Europe have essentially rejected his fiery brand of politics. The decisive defeat in Sunday’s election of his preferred choice for president of France underscored the limits of the nationalist populism that Mr. Trump has come to represent. It also further complicated a trans-Atlantic relationship already stressed by issues like the future of trade, a resurgent Russia, the mission of the NATO alliance, and extremism and war in the Middle East.
Rather than finding a series of like-minded figures in power across the Atlantic, Mr. Trump now finds himself facing a European tandem in Mr. Macron and Chancellor Angela Merkel of Germany that strongly supports the European Union and will take a harder line on President Vladimir V. Putin’s Russia. While populist sentiment remains strong in Europe, there are fewer paths ahead for candidates aligned with Mr. Trump’s thinking to assume power in key countries. Mr. Trump called to congratulate President-elect Emmanuel Macron on Monday, a day after voters picked him by a 2-to-1 margin over Marine Le Pen, the far-right nationalist who had the American president’s implicit support. Mr. Trump emphasized his desire to cooperate on “shared challenges,” the White House said afterward, and the two leaders will meet for the first time on the sideline of a meeting of NATO leaders in Brussels on May 25.
But Mr. Trump will find more shared challenges than shared values as he encounters the new tandem of Mr. Macron and Chancellor Angela Merkel of Germany, both champions of the European project and skeptics of Russian adventurism. With Ms. Merkel in strong shape heading into an election this fall — and facing an opponent who, like her, supports the European Union — the French election was perhaps the last, best chance for Mr. Trump to secure a major ally this year through a populist electoral uprising.
“The notion of a kind of ‘Internationale’ of the nationalists is no longer going to be viable at all,” Daniel Fried, a former assistant secretary of state for European affairs, said on a conference call organized by the Atlantic Council on Monday. “It changes the landscape in which Trump’s foreign policy will operate.”“The notion of a kind of ‘Internationale’ of the nationalists is no longer going to be viable at all,” Daniel Fried, a former assistant secretary of state for European affairs, said on a conference call organized by the Atlantic Council on Monday. “It changes the landscape in which Trump’s foreign policy will operate.”
Mr. Macron “now stands as a counterweight to Trump,” Mr. Fried said. The combination of a seasoned, dominant figure like Ms. Merkel and a young, dynamic newcomer like Mr. Macron, he said, creates an “implicit challenge and perhaps an explicit challenge to the Trump ideology.” Mr. Macron “now stands as a counterweight to Trump,” Mr. Fried added. The combination of a dominant, seasoned veteran like Ms. Merkel and a young, dynamic newcomer like Mr. Macron, he said, creates an “implicit challenge and perhaps an explicit challenge to the Trump ideology.”
Mr. Trump called Mr. Macron on Monday to congratulate him, but the first real test of their relationship could come in just two weeks when Mr. Trump makes his first trip to Europe as president to attend a NATO summit meeting in Brussels and a Group of 7 summit meeting in Sicily. Mr. Macron, who will be inaugurated on Sunday, plans to attend both meetings. It might be too much to say the French voted to reject Mr. Trump, given the many economic and security issues that confront France and defined the campaign, yet the larger trends he reflected were at stake. “I don’t think it’s a repudiation of Trump,” said Benjamin Haddad, a research fellow at the Hudson Institute in Washington. “I do think it’s a political answer to the challenge of populism.”
One area where Mr. Trump and Mr. Macron may clash is Russia.
Where Mr. Trump has spoken flatteringly of Mr. Putin and vowed to improve Russian-American relations, Mr. Macron has taken a tougher line. Mr. Putin hosted Ms. Le Pen in Moscow during the campaign in a virtual endorsement, and the Russian government is suspected in the hacking of the Macron campaign and the leak of documents, an episode that echoed last year’s Russian meddling in the American campaign.
The French election followed contests in Austria, where voters rejected the far-right presidential candidate Norbert Hofer in December, and the Netherlands, where the far-right party of Geert Wilders fell short of expectations in parliamentary elections in March.The French election followed contests in Austria, where voters rejected the far-right presidential candidate Norbert Hofer in December, and the Netherlands, where the far-right party of Geert Wilders fell short of expectations in parliamentary elections in March.
Ms. Le Pen had sought to capitalize on the momentum from Mr. Trump’s victory in November. She was among the first foreign leaders to congratulate him, and she made an unannounced but highly visible visit to Trump Tower shortly before his inauguration, though she did not see the president-elect. Mr. Trump had assumed that his own election and Britain’s vote to leave the European Union were harbingers of other establishment dominoes that would fall. “He seemed so convinced coming in that ‘Brexit’ was just the beginning and other countries would be leaving,” said Karen Donfried, president of the German Marshall Fund of the United States. “Clearly, he’s got to correct that assessment.”
By spring, however, she was distancing herself, rarely mentioning him. Ms. Le Pen had initially sought to capitalize on the momentum from Mr. Trump’s victory in November. She was among the first foreign leaders to congratulate him, and she made an unannounced but highly visible visit to Trump Tower before his inauguration, though she did not see the president-elect. By spring, however, with Mr. Trump highly unpopular in France, she was distancing herself, rarely mentioning him.
Mr. Macron, by contrast, aired an advertisement showing American pundits last year predicting a decisive election defeat for Mr. Trump to persuade his own supporters not to take victory for granted in Sunday’s second-round runoff. Mr. Macron, by contrast, posted a video in February tweaking Mr. Trump by inviting American climate change scientists to move to France since “your new president” is “extremely skeptical about climate change.” In the final days before Sunday’s second-round runoff election, Mr. Macron attempted to persuade his supporters not to take victory for granted by airing an advertisement showing American pundits predicting a decisive election defeat for Mr. Trump.
For his part, Mr. Trump made little secret of his preference in the French contest. But Mr. Macron also showed restraint in the final stage of his campaign. For his debate with Ms. Le Pen, his campaign team prepared talking points with plenty of attack lines tying her to Mr. Trump, according to an adviser to Mr. Macron, who asked for anonymity to discuss internal deliberations. Mr. Macron disregarded them. “Instead of scoring cheap points, he went for the more prudent and anticipatory attitude,” the adviser said. “He didn’t want to jeopardize the relationship just for a punch line.”
After a police officer was shot and killed on the Champs-Élysées in Paris just before the first round of voting, Mr. Trump suggested it would help Ms. Le Pen’s campaign, which focused in part on what she said was the threat of foreigners allowed into France. “Another terrorist attack in Paris,” he wrote on Twitter. “The people of France will not take much more of this. Will have a big effect on presidential election!” For his part, Mr. Trump made little secret of his preference in the French contest. After a police officer was killed on the Champs-Élysées in Paris just before the first round of voting, Mr. Trump suggested it would help Ms. Le Pen’s campaign, which focused in part on what she said was the threat of foreigners allowed into France.
In case anyone doubted whom he meant, Mr. Trump specifically mentioned Ms. Le Pen in a subsequent interview. “I think that it’ll probably help her because she is the strongest on borders and she is the strongest on what’s been going on in France,” he told The Associated Press. “Another terrorist attack in Paris,” he wrote on Twitter. “The people of France will not take much more of this. Will have a big effect on presidential election!”
On Sunday, as Mr. Macron swamped Ms. Le Pen with 66 percent of the vote, Mr. Trump turned gracious. “Congratulations to Emmanuel Macron on his big win today as the next President of France,” he wrote on Twitter. “I look very much forward to working with him!” In case anyone doubted whom he was referring to, Mr. Trump mentioned Ms. Le Pen in a subsequent interview. “I think that it’ll probably help her because she is the strongest on borders and she is the strongest on what’s been going on in France,” he told The Associated Press.
Mr. Trump has made clear that for him, international relations are built at least in part on his personal chemistry with foreign leaders. If he can put aside his vitriolic attacks on China to forge what he now calls a strong relationship with President Xi Jinping of China, it seems plausible that Mr. Trump could find common ground with Mr. Macron. He could focus on their similarities rather than their differences; neither one had ever been elected before, and each ran against the establishments of both mainstream parties in their countries. But once the vote was in, he too put aside the election. “Congratulations to Emmanuel Macron on his big win today as the next President of France,” he wrote on Twitter on Sunday. “I look very much forward to working with him!”
Besides, while Mr. Trump surely would have interpreted a victory by Ms. Le Pen as a validation of his own politics, she would not necessarily have been an easy partner for him, given that her positions on key issues would have created a less stable situation for the United States. She had vowed to pull out of the NATO alliance and the European Union. One area where Mr. Trump and Mr. Macron may clash is Russia. Mr. Trump has spoken flatteringly of President Vladimir V. Putin and vowed to improve Russian-American relations, but Mr. Macron has taken a tougher line. Mr. Putin hosted Ms. Le Pen in Moscow during the campaign in a virtual endorsement, and the Russian government is suspected in the hacking of the Macron campaign and the leak of documents, an episode that echoed last year’s Russian meddling in the American campaign.
Moreover, some analysts said it would be too much to say that the French voted to reject Mr. Trump, given the many economic and security issues that confront France. “I don’t think it’s a repudiation of Trump,” said Benjamin Haddad, a research fellow at the Hudson Institute in Washington. “I do think it’s a political answer to the challenge of populism.” Mr. Trump has made clear he thinks international relations are built in part on his personal chemistry with foreign leaders. If he can put aside his vitriolic attacks on China to forge what he now calls a strong relationship with President Xi Jinping, it seems plausible he could find common ground with Mr. Macron. He could focus on their similarities rather than their differences; neither had been elected before, and each ran against the establishments of the mainstream parties in their countries.
Besides, while Mr. Trump surely would have interpreted a victory by Ms. Le Pen as a validation of his own politics, she would not necessarily have been an easy partner, given that her promises to pull out of NATO and the European Union could have created a less stable situation for the United States.
Still, Mr. Macron, young, diffident and intellectual, is more often compared to President Barack Obama. “He’s sort of the antithesis of Donald Trump,” said Mark Leonard, director of the European Council on Foreign Relations. “He does share this odd thing of running as an outsider when he’s obviously an insider. But I don’t think they could be any further from each other in terms of their ideas, their philosophy.”