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What to Watch For as France Goes to the Polls to Elect a New President Highlights of the French Presidential Vote
(about 1 hour later)
PARIS — After a bitter presidential campaign, a vicious second-round debate and a hacking attack against one candidate, voting is underway on Sunday in mainland France in the final round of the national elections. ■ The independent centrist Emmanuel Macron was on the verge of defeating Marine Le Pen and becoming the president of France, according to projections based on preliminary results, in a campaign whose final days were marked by a vicious second-round debate and a hacking attack against Mr. Macron.
■ Voters face two starkly different choices for president: the independent centrist Emmanuel Macron and the far-right Marine Le Pen. ■ Mr. Macron captured about 65 percent of the vote, according to the projections from several French polling institutes, while Ms. Le Pen was at about 35 percent.
■ At 5 p.m. French time, the voter turnout stood at 65.30 percent, according to the Interior Ministry, lower than in the past three presidential elections. Higher turnout is expected to benefit Mr. Macron, and a lower figure will probably help Ms. Le Pen. ■ At 5 p.m. French time, the voter turnout stood at 65.30 percent, according to the Interior Ministry, lower than in the past three presidential elections. Lower turnout had been expected to benefit Ms. Le Pen.
■ Most polls close at 7 p.m. in smaller towns and rural areas, where Ms. Le Pen has stronger support. In larger cities such as Paris, Marseille and Bordeaux, the polls close at 8 p.m., and voters there are expected to favor Mr. Macron. ■ Polls closed at 7 p.m. in smaller towns and rural areas, where Ms. Le Pen has stronger support. In larger cities such as Paris, Marseille and Bordeaux, the polls closed at 8 p.m., and voters there were expected to favor Mr. Macron.
■ Join our reporters here for live discussion and analysis of the election.■ Join our reporters here for live discussion and analysis of the election.
■ Mr. Macron, 39, is a former investment banker and economy minister who has never held elected office. He is a pro-business candidate who wants to overhaul France’s labor market, favors free trade and backs a stronger European Union. His campaign was hit late Friday by a large dump of leaked documents on a file-sharing website. Although there is an official French media blackout on sharing the information, it’s hard to determine how the breach will affect his chances. ■ Mr. Macron, 39, is a former investment banker and economy minister who has never held elected office. He is a pro-business candidate who wants to overhaul France’s labor market, favors free trade and backs a stronger European Union. His campaign was hit late Friday by a large dump of leaked documents. There was an official French media blackout on sharing he specific contents of the hacking.
■ Ms. Le Pen, 48, is the leader of the far-right National Front party, although she temporarily stepped down from that position to campaign against Mr. Macron. She opposes globalization, backs protectionist economic policies, wants to drastically limit immigration and wants to leave the euro currency zone and organize a referendum on leaving the European Union.■ Ms. Le Pen, 48, is the leader of the far-right National Front party, although she temporarily stepped down from that position to campaign against Mr. Macron. She opposes globalization, backs protectionist economic policies, wants to drastically limit immigration and wants to leave the euro currency zone and organize a referendum on leaving the European Union.
Here’s what to look for. (You can read more about where the two candidates stand here.)
Quite a bit — for France, for Europe and for the world. The country has a population of 67 million, is the world’s sixth-largest economy and is one of five permanent members of the United Nations Security Council and a nuclear power. It is one of the oldest allies of the United States and is the world’s most-visited country. Since the French Revolution, the nation has often been viewed as a beacon of democratic ideals.Quite a bit — for France, for Europe and for the world. The country has a population of 67 million, is the world’s sixth-largest economy and is one of five permanent members of the United Nations Security Council and a nuclear power. It is one of the oldest allies of the United States and is the world’s most-visited country. Since the French Revolution, the nation has often been viewed as a beacon of democratic ideals.
Crucially, France is a founding member of the European Union. If Ms. Le Pen is elected and is able to lead France out of the euro currency zone or even the bloc itself, some fear that could bring about the downfall of the European Union. Crucially, France is a founding member of the European Union. Victory for Mr. Macron would be another setback for far-right populists in Europe, bringing sighs of relief in Berlin and Brussels.
A victory by Mr. Macron, by contrast, would be another setback for far-right populists in Europe, bringing sighs of relief in Berlin and Brussels. It would also be a blow to President Trump, who, without directly endorsing Ms. Le Pen, has suggested he favors her candidacy. Former President Barack Obama has expressed support for Mr. Macron. It would also be a blow to President Trump, who, without directly endorsing Ms. Le Pen, suggested he favored her candidacy. Former President Barack Obama expressed support for Mr. Macron.
In the first round of the elections, which featured 11 candidates, the abstention rate was lower than expected, and turnout has historically been higher in the second round. But now many in France are being asked to choose between two candidates they did not support. The latest polls show that about a quarter of France’s electorate are thinking of abstaining. Success for Ms. Le Pen, by contrast, would allow her to pursue her goal of leading France out of the euro currency zone or even the bloc itself, some fear that could bring about the downfall of the European Union.
Low turnout and a high number of blank ballots (a form of protest vote) had been expected to benefit Ms. Le Pen, whose voter base was shown by polls to be more committed than Mr. Macron’s. But that did not appear to be the case.
The turnout at 5 p.m. was 65.30 percent, according to the Interior Ministry. Turnout at the same point was 71.96 percent in 2012, 75.11 percent in 2007 and 67.62 percent in 2002. The figure on Sunday was even lower than turnout at the same stage in the first round, two weeks ago, which stood at 69.42 percent.The turnout at 5 p.m. was 65.30 percent, according to the Interior Ministry. Turnout at the same point was 71.96 percent in 2012, 75.11 percent in 2007 and 67.62 percent in 2002. The figure on Sunday was even lower than turnout at the same stage in the first round, two weeks ago, which stood at 69.42 percent.
Low turnout and a high number of blank ballots (a form of protest vote) are likely to benefit Ms. Le Pen, whose voter base is shown by polls to be more committed than Mr. Macron’s. Many in France were being asked to choose between two candidates they did not support in the second round of voting, and the latest polls showed that about a quarter of France’s electorate were thinking of abstaining.
Many on the left or right will vote for Mr. Macron in the runoff, if only to bar Ms. Le Pen from reaching the presidency — a French political tradition known as the “Republican Front,” in which mainstream parties ally against the far right. Many on the left or right were expected to vote for Mr. Macron in the runoff, if only to bar Ms. Le Pen from reaching the presidency — a French political tradition known as the “Republican Front,” in which mainstream parties ally against the far right.
But there have been signs of cracks in that front. On the right, conservatives who backed former Prime Minister François Fillon in the first round view Mr. Macron as too socially liberal and as an heir to François Hollande, France’s Socialist president, whose popularity has plummeted since his election. There had been cracks in that front. On the right, conservatives who backed former Prime Minister François Fillon in the first round viewed Mr. Macron as too socially liberal and as an heir to François Hollande, France’s Socialist president, whose popularity has plummeted since his election.
More significantly, voters who supported the far-left candidate Jean-Luc Mélenchon in the first round have struggled with the idea of supporting Mr. Macron and his pro-business policies. More significantly, voters who supported the far-left candidate Jean-Luc Mélenchon in the first round struggled with the idea of supporting Mr. Macron and his pro-business policies.
The troves of data related to Mr. Macron’s movement, En Marche!, were leaked on the internet Friday night, hours before a legal prohibition on campaign communications went into effect.The troves of data related to Mr. Macron’s movement, En Marche!, were leaked on the internet Friday night, hours before a legal prohibition on campaign communications went into effect.
Links to nine gigabytes of zip and torrent files were posted under the profile of someone called EMLEAKS on Pastebin, an anonymous publishing website. The archive was shared on the popular forum 4chan and promoted on Twitter by far-right activists, before WikiLeaks gave it extensive exposure online. Links to the zip and torrent files were posted under the profile of someone called EMLEAKS on Pastebin, an anonymous publishing website. The archive was shared on the popular forum 4chan and promoted on Twitter by far-right activists, before WikiLeaks gave it extensive exposure online.
So far, the leak appears to mostly involve documents that show the mundane inner workings of a presidential campaign, including professional and private emails, memos, contracts and accounting documents. The Paris prosecutor’s office has opened an investigation into the hacking of Mr. Macron’s campaign.So far, the leak appears to mostly involve documents that show the mundane inner workings of a presidential campaign, including professional and private emails, memos, contracts and accounting documents. The Paris prosecutor’s office has opened an investigation into the hacking of Mr. Macron’s campaign.
Mr. Macron’s campaign said in a statement shortly before the blackout went into effect that the professional and personal email accounts of some of its staff members had been hacked “some weeks ago.”Mr. Macron’s campaign said in a statement shortly before the blackout went into effect that the professional and personal email accounts of some of its staff members had been hacked “some weeks ago.”
It said that all of the stolen documents were “legal” and “authentic” but that fake ones had been added to “sow doubt and disinformation.” It denounced the hack as an attempt to destabilize democracy.It said that all of the stolen documents were “legal” and “authentic” but that fake ones had been added to “sow doubt and disinformation.” It denounced the hack as an attempt to destabilize democracy.
The National Commission for Control of the Electoral Campaign, a French regulatory body, warned on Saturday that publishing the documents might qualify as a crime. It called on the news media and French citizens to “show a spirit of responsibility” ahead of the election. It was not clear what was genuine and what wasn’t. It will presumably take experts weeks to sift through and assess all the leaked documents. Experts suspect a Russian-linked espionage operation known as A.P.T. 28, or Fancy Bear, may be involved, although there is no firm evidence that the operation was behind the thefts. European and American analysts have determined that the group was responsible for hacking the Democratic National Committee last year.
En Marche! has been the target of hackers since last year. Last month, Trend Micro, a cybersecurity firm, said that a hacking group believed to be a Russian intelligence unit had attacked Mr. Macron’s campaign, sending emails to campaign officials and others with links to fake websites designed to bait them into turning over passwords.En Marche! has been the target of hackers since last year. Last month, Trend Micro, a cybersecurity firm, said that a hacking group believed to be a Russian intelligence unit had attacked Mr. Macron’s campaign, sending emails to campaign officials and others with links to fake websites designed to bait them into turning over passwords.
• What is genuine and what isn’t. It will presumably take experts weeks to sift through and assess all the leaked documents. Journalists working for several news organizations complained Sunday that the National Front had barred them from covering an election party in eastern Paris, without providing a justification.
• Whether different individuals or groups were behind the thefts and the leaks, who they are and what their motives were. The news organizations included BuzzFeed, Politico, and the investigative news website Mediapart. Other news outlets, including Le Monde and the left-leaning daily Libération, responded that they would boycott the event “out of solidarity.”
Experts suspect a Russian-linked espionage operation known as A.P.T. 28, or Fancy Bear, may be involved, although there is no firm evidence that the operation was behind the thefts. European and American analysts have determined that the group was responsible for hacking the Democratic National Committee last year. A National Front official told the Agence France-Presse that the journalists were being prevented from attending because there was not enough room at the event.
• Whether the leaks, emerging less than 48 hours before the French go to the polls, will affect the outcome. Because of a blackout legally imposed on TV and radio, news of the leaks is not likely to reach as large an audience as it would usually have. Mr. Macron has a roughly 20-point lead on his opponent in the polls. Mr. Macron led consistently and widely in the polls, and he captured about 65 percent of the vote, according to the initial projections.
Expect strong showings by Ms. Le Pen in northeastern France, a region with high unemployment, and on the Mediterranean coast, where her anti-immigration message resonates the most. Even if a loss for Ms. Le Pen is confirmed, the results represent unprecedented support for the National Front, which has made steady gains in local and national elections. The apparent victory for Mr. Macron is a sign, however, that the “Republican Front” still holds and that many in the French electorate still firmly reject the far right.
This is the first time Mr. Macron has run, which makes it more difficult to predict where his support will come from, but in the first round, he did well in Brittany and southwestern France.
Ultimately, this is a direct popular vote. There is no equivalent to the Electoral College in the United States. What matters is getting the most votes nationwide, not carrying certain regions.
Mr. Macron has led consistently and widely in the polls, with about 60 percent of the vote projected to go his way, compared with 40 percent for Ms. Le Pen.
Even if Ms. Le Pen loses, that figure would represent unprecedented support for the National Front, which has made steady gains in local and national elections.
If Mr. Macron does better than expected, it could be a sign that the “Republican Front” still holds and that many in the French electorate still firmly reject the far right. But if Ms. Le Pen does better than expected, it could be a sign that the far right is taking firmer root in the French political landscape.
In either case, the bigger the margin of victory, the stronger the mandate for the winner. It will also give the victor’s party a lift in the legislative elections scheduled for June.
The economy is the electorate’s main concern, and the next president will have to tackle high unemployment and sluggish growth while also addressing the worries of blue-collar workers about globalization and immigration.The economy is the electorate’s main concern, and the next president will have to tackle high unemployment and sluggish growth while also addressing the worries of blue-collar workers about globalization and immigration.
Security is also a major concern, as reflected in a vicious debate on Wednesday in which the two candidates sparred over their antiterrorism policies and an attack in Paris that occurred just days before the first round of voting.Security is also a major concern, as reflected in a vicious debate on Wednesday in which the two candidates sparred over their antiterrorism policies and an attack in Paris that occurred just days before the first round of voting.
But the most pressing issue for France’s next president will be the legislative elections. Because neither candidate is from a mainstream political party, both will struggle to get enough representatives elected to the National Assembly, France’s lower and more powerful house of Parliament, to support their agenda. But the most pressing issue will be the legislative elections. Because neither candidate is from a mainstream political party, both will struggle to get enough representatives elected to the National Assembly, France’s lower and more powerful house of Parliament, to support their agenda.
Although the president nominates the prime minister, that person must reflect the political majority in that assembly, to avoid a government-toppling motion of censure.Although the president nominates the prime minister, that person must reflect the political majority in that assembly, to avoid a government-toppling motion of censure.
Without a majority, the next president could be forced into an uncomfortable collaboration with a legislature and a prime minister of an opposing political persuasion, significantly hobbling his or her ability to pursue goals.Without a majority, the next president could be forced into an uncomfortable collaboration with a legislature and a prime minister of an opposing political persuasion, significantly hobbling his or her ability to pursue goals.